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Matt Bai: Clinton has the map on her side, but history working against her

Politics

Matt Bai: Clinton has the map on her side, but history working against her

The way a lot of partisan Democrats see it, Hillary Clinton — despite a loss to Bernie Sanders in Indiana Tuesday — will soon lock down her party’s nomination, and the only way she finds herself even threatened by Donald Trump is if the media decides to legitimize him. She has an edge with electoral votes and no candidate has ever overcome the kind of ugly impressions Trump has made on women and minority voters to this point, writes Yahoo political columnist Matt Bai. But if history is any guide, Clinton comes to the campaign with a structural disadvantage, too, and one that shouldn’t be overlooked.

In 65 years … only one nominee has managed to win a third consecutive term for his party.

Matt Bai, Yahoo political columnist

Clinton — runner-up in 2008, loyal soldier thereafter — is the prototypical next-in-line. Thanks to a couple of dreadful midterm election cycles, she’s had to contend only with a 74-year-old protest candidate who just recently joined the party, and even then she hasn’t been able to excite enough of her own party’s base to lock down the nomination by May. Next-in-lines have been known (at least once) to win, and assuming she can nail down the nomination, Clinton is as clear a favorite as we’ve seen in a while.

But Clinton shouldn’t delude herself into thinking she’s headed for a layup, and neither should anyone else.

Matt Bai