Martinsville cheat sheet: STP 500 fantasy rankings

Martinsville cheat sheet: STP 500 fantasy rankings

Special to Yahoo Sports
By Dan Beaver

The STP 500 is the first of three short track races in the next four weeks. For most of the drivers in the field, this is where they first earned their experience. In the equation of horsepower and handling, the balance tips in the drivers’ favor and fantasy owners can take a few risks on wild-card, dark-horse picks.

1. Jimmie Johnson: If he is going to break out of his funk on any track, Martinsville is the place Johnson will shine. Fantasy players should ignore his recent trouble and start him with confidence.

2. Kyle Busch: He was forced to miss the spring 2015 Martinsville race, but since then Busch has had a perfect record of top-fives including last year’s STP 500 win.

3. Kevin Harvick: The No. 4 team has been plagued with plenty of bad luck and mistakes this year, but Harvick always seems to find a way to rebound and finish in the top five.

4. Brad Keselowski: With a pair of top-fives at Martinsville last year, Keselowski doubled his output on this track. He is also riding a current four-race, top-five streak in 2017.

5. Kyle Larson: Now that he has broken into Victory Lane, it is likely that Larson is going to earn a lot more wins. Martinsville has not been one of his better courses, but momentum will level the playing field.

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6. Joey Logano: In 2014 and 2015, Logano posted 10 consecutive top-10s on short, flat tracks. He was well en route to a victory at Martinsville that fall before getting wrecked by Kenseth.

7. Chase Elliott: Martinsville is a track that has been dominated by Hendrick Motorsports in the past. The No. 24 team has a great baseline setup that should propel Elliott to another top-10.

8. Martin Truex Jr.: With one victory in the bank, Truex can roll the dice at the end of races. Last week, fantasy owners learned that is not always a good thing for their roster.

9. Jamie McMurray: The Chip Ganassi Racing organization is poised to have their best season ever and McMurray is doing a yeoman’s job. He enters the weekend with three consecutive short track top-10s.

10. Denny Hamlin: An accident just shy of the halfway mark last spring is the only time during the past four Martinsville races that Hamlin failed to crack the top five.

11. Clint Bowyer: Racing is finally fun again for Bowyer and that is making all the difference in the world. Throw his recent stats out and ride the momentum.

12. Ryan Blaney: The No. 21 has finished in the top 10 in every other race for the past eight. If that pattern holds, the best fantasy players can expect is a result in the teens for Blaney at Martinsville.

13. Erik Jones: Mistakes in the pits are going to happen from time to time. The real measure of strength is in how a driver rebounds and Jones’ 12th at Auto Club should make fantasy owners very hopeful.

14. Daniel Suarez: For most of the Auto Club 400, it appeared Suarez would not come close to finishing in the top 15, but he is showing a strong tendency to restart well. That got him back-to-back top-10s.

15. Matt Kenseth: He has had a top-10 capable car every week, but three accidents have mired Kenseth deep in the points’ standings. It is going to take a while be players learn to trust him again.

16. Ty Dillon: His Rookie of the Year rivals have scored top-10s while Dillon has a best result of 15th, but the driver of the No. 13 has been very consistent and that is how one ultimately improves.

17. Kasey Kahne: Late-race chaos has cost Kahne an opportunity to sweep the top 15. Now that Johnson is improving, expect the No. 5 team’s results to take a dip.

18. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: A little loss of reflex or aggression can result in the difference of a tenth of a second. That has relegated Earnhardt to a mid-pack position all year.

19. Ryan Newman: If Newman had finished in the top 10 in the Auto Club 400, he would have been a great option this week. He didn’t and isn’t based on how few laps he spent at the front of the field in that event.

20. Kurt Busch: One does not know what will go wrong for Busch at Martinsville, but it is almost certain that something will if the past three weeks are any indication.

21. AJ Allmendinger: Last fall, Allmendinger scored three consecutive top-10s on three distinct tracks. One of these was a 10th in the Goody’s 500 at Martinsville.

22. Aric Almirola: His results have not garnered a lot of attention this season, but that makes Almirola a surprisingly good value with three straight top-20s. He has been flying under the radar.

23. Austin Dillon: Last fall, Dillon failed to advance to round three of the playoffs despite scoring back-to-back top-10s at Kansas and Talladega. That may have broken his spirit because he has not earned another since.

24. Paul Menard: Nine of Menard’s last 12 races in 2016/2017 ended worse than they started, so pay particular attention to how he qualifies at Martinsville.

25. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Just when fantasy owners began to think it is safe to trust the Roush-Fenway Racing drivers, they both were swept into the same late-race accident at Auto Club.

26. Trevor Bayne: Roush-Fenway Racing has never been particularly strong on short, flat tracks, which makes this a good week to evaluate Bayne and his teammate Stenhouse.

27. Matt DiBenedetto: To succeed in fantasy NASCAR, players have to manage the bottom of the roster as well as the top. DiBenedetto has finished in the high-20s in his last four races this season.

28. Danica Patrick: One of the reasons handicapping NASCAR is so difficult is that on occasion drivers earn top-10s on the heels of consecutive 30-something results on a given track. That happened to Patrick in 2015 at Martinsville.

29. Landon Cassill: Consistency is important for drivers and fantasy owners alike. Cassill has finished in the 20s in all four 2017 starts on unrestricted speedways.

30. David Ragan: Martinsville is a driver’s track and that should level the playing field between marquee and moderately-funded teams. Ragan still has to beat the best in the business to make his mark, however.

31. Michael McDowell: Last week was the worst performance by the No. 95 all year, so it might be time to rest McDowell for a race or two.

32. Chris Buescher: The Camping World 500k is the only event this year in which Buescher finished on the lead lap. Martinsville is similarly flat, but it is much more difficult to complete the distance on this tight bullring.

33. Reed Sorenson: Without the No. 55 in the field, Premium Motorsports should be able to focus their effort on Sorenson. That might pick up a position or two in the final rundown.

34. Gray Gaulding: This Rookie of the Year candidate has three previous starts on short, flat tracks. He has failed to keep his car running until the end in any of them, including at Martinsville last fall.

35. Jeffrey Earnhardt: He has not always been running well, but Earnhardt had been running at the end of every short, flat track race he started until a broken transmission sent him home early from the Camping World 500k.

36. Cole Whitt: The driver of the No. 72 has 17 previous starts in the Cup series on tracks one-mile or less in length. Two ended in top-20s; six were 35th or worse.

37. Corey LaJoie: He has sustained crash damage in four of five races this year, and that has kept LaJoie from being any kind of factor in the Cup series.

38. Timmy Hill: Only 38 cars were entered for the STP 500 as of Tuesday and that will actually improve the racing on this tight bullring. Hill will be one of the back markers.

For more analysis, go to DanBeaver.com or follow him on Twitter