March Madness bracket betting: Picks for one of the strangest Final Fours ever

The Final Four matchups seem more fitting for the Sweet 16, or maybe the second round of the NCAA tournament.

That's not to say the two Saturday semifinal games in Houston aren't good. They're just unusual, and historically so. Miami and San Diego State would have the second-longest pre-tournament odds of any champion since seeding started in 1979. Florida Atlantic would have the longest pre-tournament odds ever. FAU was 200-to-1 when the tournament started.

Then there's UConn, the one team that does seem to fit in a Final Four, based on program history and how the Huskies have played this season.

Welcome to the most eclectic Final Four in many years, and possibly ever. Here are the picks for the two semifinal games, with odds from BetMGM:

San Diego State (-2.5) over Florida Atlantic

One of these teams will be playing on the final Monday night of the college basketball season. That's a pretty amazing story, no matter which team makes it.

The pick for the Aztecs here is based on their defense. San Diego State went from being a very good defensive team to an elite one. They gave up 61 points to Colorado State in their first Mountain West tournament game. Since then, this is what teams have scored against SDSU: 49, 57, 57, 52, 64 and 56. Those performances include giving up 64 to an Alabama team that averaged 81.8 this season, tied for seventh in the nation, and 56 to a Creighton team averaging 76.4.

Practically speaking, this is what Virginia did when it won a national title. SDSU is grinding teams to dust on the defensive end. In a perfect world an NCAA champion would do everything well, but if you're not balanced (SDSU is not great offensively) then do one thing really, really well. SDSU has been great on defense.

It's hard to pick against Florida Atlantic. The Owls are legit and proved that in the past couple weeks. It has been a great run. I just don't think they can hit enough shots against this SDSU defense.

UConn (-5.5) over Miami

If you gave UConn a No. 1 or 2 seed — advanced metrics said the Huskies were one of the top eight teams in the sport — then the leadup to this Final Four would feel like even more of a coronation.

UConn has looked every bit the part of a deserving national champion. They slipped to a No. 4 seed due to a midseason slump that included a lot of close losses. But there have been times the Huskies looked like the best team in the sport, and that includes most of this NCAA tournament. The way they dismantled Gonzaga was a statement. UConn beat St. Mary's by 15 points and that's their closest game this tournament.

Miami has a lot to like. The Hurricanes won the ACC regular-season championship, and even if the league was down this season that's a great accomplishment. They have a fantastic backcourt and a heck of a coach in Jim Larrañaga. Miami is a quality team that is playing well.

Picking UConn isn't a fade of Miami. It's recognizing that this UConn team looks as dominant as plenty of the recent champions, regardless of what seed the Huskies had before the tournament.

Elite Eight record: 2-2

Tournament to date: 30-34