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There are many potential roadblocks on Chiefs’ path to the No. 1 seed in AFC playoffs

Pete Grathoff
·4 min read

Adding a 17th game to the NFL schedule this season could be a blessing for the Chiefs.

It may take an extra game to separate the wheat from the chaff in a crowded AFC playoff field. Through Week 13, only three of the AFC’s 16 teams have no shot at the playoffs: the Jets, Jaguars and Texans.

The other 13 teams have at least six victories and a dozen have a .500 or better record. And only one team has nine wins.

Although the Chiefs (8-4) hold a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West, Kansas City has work to do just to clinch the division title. However, they are tied with three teams for the second-best record in the AFC and are in the running for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, that road to a second-straight top seed in the AFC is full of potholes and off-ramps.

Here’s a closer look at the race.

Records

This is how the teams are currently ranked in the AFC.

1. New England Patriots: 9-4 (leading the East)

2. Tennessee Titans: 8-4 (leading the South)

3. Baltimore Ravens: 8-4 (leading the North)

4. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-4 (leading the West)

5. Los Angeles Chargers: 7-5 (second in the West)

6. Cincinnati Bengals: 7-5 (second in the North)

7. Buffalo Bills: 7-5 (second in the East)

8. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-5-1 (third in the North)

9. Indianapolis Colts: 7-6 (third in the South)

10. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-6 (third in the West)

11. Cleveland Browns: 6-6 (fourth in the North)

12. Denver Broncos: 6-6 (fourth in the West)

13. Miami Dolphins: 6-7 (third in the East)

Head-to-head records

When breaking a tie between or among teams with the same record but not in the same division, the first tie-breaker is a head-to-head result (if there is one).

That’s why the Chiefs are currently the No. 4 seed, despite leading the AFC West. The Chiefs lost to the Titans (27-3 on Oct. 24) and Ravens (36-35 on Sept. 19).

As noted, New England has the AFC’s best record at 9-4. The Patriots are on their bye week and will face the Colts in Week 15.

Conference records

The second tiebreaker for teams not in the same division is conference records. This is also tiebreaker No. 4 for ties within a division (out of 12 tiebreakers).

Heading into Sunday’s game against the Raiders, the Chiefs are 11th in the AFC race with a 3-4 conference record. Among teams in the playoff hunt, only the Browns and Broncos (both 3-5) have a worse mark.

The good news for the Chiefs is they finish the season with five games against AFC opponents and will have an opportunity to improve upon that record.

Strength of schedule

EDSfootball.com shows the Chiefs have the 10th-most difficult strength of schedule to end the season. But what’s good for the Chiefs, is that ranks seventh in the AFC behind the Ravens and Browns (tied for most difficult), Steelers, Bengals, Raiders and Colts.

The Titans have the easiest road ahead, while the Chargers’ remaining schedule is ranked 27th overall and the Patriots’ slate is 26th. That’s noteworthy as the Chiefs chase New England for the top seed and try to hold off the Chargers in the AFC West.

Here’s the remaining Chiefs schedule:

  • Sunday: vs. Raiders

  • Dec. 16: at Chargers

  • Dec. 26: vs. Steelers

  • Jan. 2: at Bengals

  • Jan. 9: at Broncos

All five games are against teams in the playoff hunt, and the Chiefs end the season with two road games.

Chiefs postseason odds

This is what the computer models are saying about the Chiefs’ chances of making the playoffs and being the AFC’s top seed.

New York Times: 90% chance to make playoffs; 13% shot of being No. 1 seed

Football Outsiders: 89% chance to make playoffs; 11% shot at being No. 1 seed

FiveThirtyEight.com: 90% chance to make playoffs; 14% shot at being No. 1 seed

Playoff Status: 86% to make playoffs; 9% shot at being No. 1 seed