Yahoo Sports ‘The Little Mermaid’ Opens to $118 Million, but This Is Not the Billion-Dollar Hit We’re Looking For
For the third time this month, an expensive franchise sequel did decent-not-spectacular business. “The Little Mermaid” (Disney) should gross around $95.5 million for three days, around $118 million for four days. The top three films amassed all but $23 million of the holiday weekend’s $162 million total gross, down $15 million from last year.
In this summer season of expensive and familiar films, the pressure will increase for something to exceed expectations. This was a weekend that, on paper, should have had a very good shot of beating 2022. While no one expected “Mermaid” to outstrip the $126 million opening of “Top Gun: Maverick,” this weekend also had the backing of another major franchise in its second week with “Fast X” (Universal). Last year, the no. 2 film was the month-old “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” which grossed $16 million. “Fast X” grossed $23 million.
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Perhaps more concerning is the comparison to Disney’s billion-dollar 2109 hits “Aladdin” and “The Lion King.” Initial “Mermaid” results suggest a possible worldwide total of around $500 million. Before marketing, its reported cost is around $250 million.
“Fast X” fell 66 percent in its second weekend, similar to “F9” in 2021 (which, like this time, benefited from a week-two holiday). With $500 million worldwide, best-case scenario will have it match the $726 million of “F9” — a total presumably constricted by Covid. With a budget of $340 million this time, that falls short.
By this time last year, we saw the debuts of summer releases that grossed over $400 million domestic. Certain titles yet to come still have a shot, but there’s less time to see improvement.
Disney has an upbeat result with “Guardians,” which fell just shy of $20 million in its fourth weekend and nears $300 million; the likely ultimate domestic gross is around $375 million. Worldwide should top $800 million.
Beyond the top three, results suggested that theaters can’t be saved by more wide releases. Four new films made the top 10, three of which were in over 2,000 theaters. However, none grossed more than $5 million.
“The Machine” (Sony) grossed $4.9 million, followed by “About My Father” (Lionsgate) with Robert De Niro at $4.25 million. “Kandahar” starring Gerard Butler (Open Road/Briarcliff) managed $2.4 million. All three have the feel of routine titles that land on PVOD after their third weekends, a trend that may hurt smaller films as the public gets used to the alternative. Similarly, how many parents suspect that “The Little Mermaid” will quickly make it to Disney+? (The reality is late summer.)
A24 opened Nicole Holofcener’s very well-reviewed (82 Metacritic score) Sundance-premiered “You Hurt My Feelings” in 912 theaters, to an estimate just under $1.4 million. The comedy starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus may see a $3.5 million total. Her last theatrical release was “Enough Said” in 2013; starring Louis-Dreyfus and James Gandolfini, it grossed $18 million domestic in a platform release.
Year-to-date compared to 2022 stands at 21 percent improvement, which would project to below $9 million for the year. The rolling four-week comparison to 2019 comes to 79 percent, which also translate to around the same number for the full year.
Fresh specialized titles out of Cannes can’t come soon enough (most won’t appear to fall though). With no new titles reporting, and those already showing barely showing a pulse, the door is wide open for A24’s “Past Lives” (best reviews of any film so far this year) to find a good response next week.
The Top 10
1. The Little Mermaid (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 59; Est. budget: $250 million
$95,500,000 in 4,320 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $; Cumulative: $95,500,000
2. Fast X (Universal) Week 2; Last weekend #1
$23,020,000 (-66%) in 4,008 (+2) theaters; PTA: $5,631; Cumulative: $107,955,000
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney) Week 4; Last weekend #2
$20,000,000 (-%) in 3,940 (-510) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $299,400,000
4. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) Week 8; Last weekend #3; also on PVOD
$6,270,000 (-35%) in 3,148 (-392) theaters; PTA: $1,992; Cumulative: $558,882,000
5. The Machine (Sony) NEW – Metacritic: 38; Est. budget: $20 million
$4,900,000 in 2,409 theaters; PTA: $2,034; Cumulative: $4,900,000
6. About My Father (Lionsgate) NEW – Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 37; Est. budget: $29 million
$4,250,000 in 2,464 theaters; PTA: $1,725; Cumulative: $4,250,000
7. Kandadar (Open Road/Briarcliff) NEW – Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 52
$2,410,000 in 2,105 theaters; PTA: $1,145; Cumulative: $2,410,000
8. You Hurt My Feelings (A24) NEW – Metacritic: 82
$1,389,000 in 912 theaters; PTA: $1,523; Cumulative: $1,389,000
9. Evil Dead Rise (Warner Bros. Discovery) Week 6; Last weekend #5; also on PVOD
$1,052,000 (-57%) in 921 (-1,252) theaters; PTA: $1,142; Cumulative: $66,200,000
10. Book Club: The Next Chapter (Focus) Week 2; Last weekend #4
$920,000 (-69%) in 1,312 (-2,174) theaters; PTA: $687; Cumulative: $16,132,000
Other specialized titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited, as well as awards-oriented releases) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first two weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed.
Master Gardener (Magnolia) Week 2
$94,300 in 156 (-44) theaters; PTA: $605; Cumulative: $500,892
Sanctuary (Neon) Week 2
$40,638 in 10 theaters; PTA: $4,064; Cumulative: $138,877
BlackBerry (IFC/Elevation) Week 2
$(est.) 200,000 in 197 (-398) theaters; Cumulative: $1,285,000
Monica (IFC) Week 3
$11,000 in 53 (-39) theaters; Cumulative: $124,500
The Starling Girl (Bleecker Street) Week 3
$31,459 in 114 (+73) theaters; Cumulative: $111,842
It Ain’t Over (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 3
$31,488 in 57 (-71) theaters; Cumulative: $332,363
Chevalier (Searchlight) Week 6
$22,000 in 85 (-5) theaters; Cumulative: $3,420,000
Somewhere in Queens (Roadside Attractions) Week 6
$17,520 in 32 (-14) theaters; Cumulative: $1,705,000
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