League One finale: what’s at stake in the promotion and relegation battles

It’s the final day in League One on Sunday, starting at noon, and it’s set up nicely: three teams eyeing the last play-off spot, four trying to avoid relegation, and either Bolton or Fleetwood going up with champions Sheffield United. Expect angst.

Who’ll land second place, then? Bolton have the edge. They’re second on 83 points (GD29) and home to the relaxed, mid-table Peterborough, live on TV. Fleetwood (third, 81 points, GD21) play Port Vale at home – with Vale battling the drop.

Sounds like good news for Bolton at last? Could be. It’s five years since their Premier League relegation, 16 months since their winding-up order over £172.9m debts, a year since they fell out of the Championship. They’re still under a transfer embargo. But since last year’s takeover, which involved ex-owner Eddie Davies writing off loans, the momentum seems to have turned.

Still, the Big Sam years seem remote … Certainly do. When Allardyce walked away in 2007 after eight golden years, Bolton were fifth and on the verge of Uefa Cup qualification. He reflected on it all this month, calling them “my greatest club”, but claiming he left over a lack of ambition. “They just wanted to stay up. That’s no good for me. You don’t do this job to achieve mediocrity, you do it for success. I learned my lesson. If the club hasn’t got the same ambition as you, there’s no point putting yourself through what you have to as a manager.”

Didn’t work out so well, though … He went to Newcastle and lasted eight boo-heavy months before being sacked. But, via one or two headlines, he’s flavour of the month again now.

So, Bolton must be feeling confident? “We don’t have to worry about anyone else’s score now,” says manager, Phil Parkinson. “It’s a two-horse race, we’ve got a two-point start. We’re in control.”

Brave talk. And at the other end? Chesterfield, Coventry and Swindon are down – on Sunday it’s between Fleetwood’s opponents Port Vale (21st with 48 points), Gillingham (20th with 49), Bury (19th with 50) and Shrewsbury (18th with 51) for the last spot. It’d take a wild set of maths for The Shrews to fail, though – and none of their rivals have it easy. Besides Vale’s tough ask, Bury are away at play-off chasing Southend and Gillingham at Northampton – whose manager, Justin Edinburgh, they sacked in January. A chance to make quite a point.