Josh Donaldson would be tricky piece for Blue Jays to move

Although the Toronto Blue Jays are coming off an exciting series win over the New York Yankees, the talk surrounding the team right now is trade deadline-dominant.

The Blue Jays are currently the AL East’s basement dwellers with a 39-45 record and need to leapfrog almost half the Junior Circuit just to grab the final wild-card spot. Toronto could conceivably go on a run between now and July 31, but with a struggling lineup and a starting rotation consistently failing to get deep into ballgames, it’s hard to see that happening.

As a result, in recent days the Blue Jays have been cast in the role of deadline sellers. The biggest problem for the club is that their most obvious trade assets — guys on expiring contracts like Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano and Jose Bautista — aren’t performing at a level that makes them particularly attractive to contenders. That means if the team is going to really retool its roster it needs to dig deeper and ship out players they have under control past 2017.

If the Blue Jays decide to go that route, the biggest move available to them would be to move Josh Donaldson, who is reportedly already drawing interest from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Whether there ends up being anything to that rumour or not, it’s not difficult to see the logic in trading Donaldson. He is a legitimate superstar in his thirties who has more value to a team in transition as a trade piece than he does driving a likely-futile playoff chase. If the Blue Jays aren’t going to make the playoffs in 2017, it’s hard to see them bringing back the exact same core and doing it in 2018 — his last year under team control — with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees on the rise. If Donaldson isn’t going to be enough to make Toronto a contender in the present he could be used to help them build one in the future.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it assumes the Blue Jays could get such a strong return for Donaldson that it would significantly jumpstart their effort to find their next competitive window. That may not be the case.

Donaldson is an amazing player and he’s more than just a rental seeing as he’s under control through 2018. Theoretically that should be enough to warrant a huge return, but there are some complications.

Firstly, there’s the third baseman’s 2017 season so far. In the midst of a significant slump, Donaldson’s season slash line has fallen to .238/.350/.457 — plenty respectable but far from his recent standards. He’s also had a recurring calf injury that could always come back or have him playing less than 100 percent. Anyone trading for Donaldson this month can’t be completely confident he’ll be the kind of difference-maker he’s traditionally been down the stretch. It’s difficult to pony up with that kind of uncertainty around his performance, health and the intersection between the two — at least for the rest of 2017.

Speaking of uncertainty, there is another kind that surrounds Donaldson and it’s perhaps the type general managers like the least: cost uncertainty. Because the 2015 MVP is controllable in 2018 through arbitration it’s hard to say what he’ll cost, other than a lot. He’s making $17 million this year and how much of a raise he gets will largely depend on his performance in the second half. A GM making a play for Donaldson knows that he’ll likely be worth whatever he costs in 2018, but he’s a more difficult piece to build around than most because he comes with a price tag that is both large and a moving target.

Another potential roadblock is the fact that the market for third basemen is going to be surprisingly small. No position in baseball is stacked with more talent than the hot corner. There are 10 third baseman who already have more than two Wins Above Replacement this season, a mark associated with a year’s worth of production from a league-average starter. Even surprise contenders like the Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Rays are set with Nolan Arenado, Jake Lamb and Evan Longoria. There aren’t really any teams looking at a sure playoff berth where Donaldson is an obvious fit.

Although Donaldson the player is outstanding, Donaldson the trade asset doesn’t quite match up. Shipping Donaldson for young players sounds like a smart play for the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, but it would be very difficult for them to get the kind of return they’d want for a player of his calibre.

If the plan is to move the superstar third baseman, it would probably be wiser to do so in the offseason after giving him a chance to prove he’s completely healthy and his bat is back in gear.