Jameis Winston will need more than talent to find NFL success

For the next five months in the run up to the 2015 NFL draft, the debate around Jameis Winston, first-round prospect, will swing in the wildest of directions, one talent analyst surely trying to outshout the other.

The Heisman-winning quarterback from Florida State will be hailed as everything from the most surefire prospect ever to a certain bust due to immaturity and poor mechanics.

Pick him first. Don’t touch him. Whatever.

Here is a not particularly hot take when it comes to Winston: no one has any idea how good (or bad) he could be, probably not even Winston himself. His future dedication to the position, work ethic and growth from noted knucklehead (at best) to professional will be the final determining factors.

Winston has the skills to be an NFL starting quarterback. He’s big – 6-foot-4, 230 – somewhat mobile, very difficult to tackle in the pocket or on the run, and capable of making some incredible plays. He’s very good at keeping his eye downfield under pressure.

His mechanics obviously need work, but they’ve improved across his college career. His throwing motion too often resembles the baseball pitcher he doubles as, and it needs to be shortened considerably or NFL defensive backs will have a field day. His 18 interceptions this season are notable.

Still, few, if any quarterbacks, enter the NFL as finished projects.

More concerning football-wise is his age and lack of experience. He turned 21 this week and has played just 28 games, throwing just 851 passes, often against overmatched competition. He was a starter for just two seasons and on campus just three (he redshirted his freshman year).

Ideally he’d be older with more experience. The top 20-rated quarterbacks in the NFL this year played an average of 3.7 seasons of college football and spent an average of 4.2 years on campus (including redshirt seasons). They averaged 36.4 college starts.

The best rookie quarterback, perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not, was Oakland’s Derek Carr, a second-round selection (not younger QBs such as Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater, who were selected higher). Carr put in five-plus years at Fresno State, playing four seasons and recording 39 starts.

So Winston is trying to buck that trend. However, it is a position unkind to youth.

That, of course, suggests that Jameis would need to be extra dutiful to become a success, especially early, which is mostly a player’s only chance.

The side of Winston that has become public suggests he is anything but mature enough to handle such a task. Everything from stolen crab legs at a grocery store, stolen soda at a Burger King, BB gun fights on campus and slurs shouted in the student union will raise NFL concerns, as they should.

Just last week, while walking into the Rose Bowl for Florida State’s eventual semifinal defeat to Oregon, Winston turned to a camera and made a gesture in which he pretended to smoke (something) and then throw it away. The imagery was clearly meant to be marijuana, which while common on college campuses is just a ludicrous gesture to knowingly make on national television as you walk into a college football game, knowing all eyes, particularly the NFL’s, are on you.

Then there is the accusation of Winston sexually assaulting an FSU coed in 2012, which in part due to a botched Tallahassee Police investigation resulted in no charges.

It’s not fair to assume Winston guilty, but it’s certainly nothing an NFL team wants to see when putting its franchise in the hands of a single player, especially in what appears to be a new era for the league concerning incidents with women.

All red flags. But all correctable. Winston is capable of growing up and acting like a grown man, a professional. The NFL, heck, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, is littered with players who did similar, if not worse, especially in college.

He wouldn’t be the first to change. Will he? Only he knows and even if he thinks he will, he’ll find the struggle to remain focused the hardest part of the job.

In Winston’s defense, what isn’t in the public domain is how Winston works at football, which, unless he is a serial criminal, is going to be the determination here. No one really knows, unless you want to take the word of FSU coaches, who would say he’s dedicated even if he isn’t.

The best NFL quarterbacks are the hardest workers, so humbled by the position through the years that they become maniacal about progress and preparation. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and so on know how to play QB in the NFL.

They remain tireless to the task, though, because they know any day they aren’t getting better, they are getting worse, and the margin between success and humiliation is razor thin. It’s a mindset. Others, such as Baltimore’s Joe Flacco, continue to develop even after years in the NFL and even winning a Super Bowl. That’s what you need.

Does Winston have that mind-set? Will Winston have it when he has money to burn and fame in an environment a lot bigger, but less protective, than Tallahassee?

The next incident won’t be swept under the rug or shrugged off as a kid being a kid. And when interceptions and failures and frustrations hit, will he look within and vow to get better by grinding, watching film and putting in extra reps?

More than anything, that’s everything for NFL quarterbacks. There is a long list of great talents who reached the league, were drafted high and even experienced some success only to fade into failure. The battle for greatness never ends.

Jameis Winston is physically gifted enough to be a good, maybe great, NFL quarterback.

Whether he wants to be, truly wants to be, will determine if he becomes one.

It’s not a particularly interesting revelation, but then again, that’s the NFL.