Interpretive Dance: The perplexing case of the Commodores

Still recuperating from your midweek bar crawl? Are you nostril deep in term paper research? Have no fear, fellow bracketeers. As a companion to the Bracket Big Board, the I.D. is here to highlight what teams are gaining and what teams are losing ground in the march toward the NCAA tournament.

DA BULLS (Moving Up)

Vanderbilt Commodores (Record: 17-14; KenPom: 40 SOS: 3 Current Seed: First team OUT) – In the 78-year history of the NCAA tournament, six teams with 14 losses earned an at-large berth. However, a team with 15 missteps never has. Can Vanderbilt rewrite history? After sweeping the Florida Gators Saturday in Nashville, it certainly has a robust argument. On the plus side, the Commodores exhibit five quality wins on the season (Florida twice, Iowa St., at Arkansas, South Carolina), the second-toughest strength of schedule and five true road victories. Conversely, their minuses include an atrocious blowout loss at Missouri, the SEC’s marginality and, of course, precedence. By observable measurements, Vandy has the look of a tournament team. Its highly efficient offense, which ranked tops in effective field-goal percentage in SEC play, long-range accuracy (38.0 3PT%) and respectable defense are all positives. If Luke Kornet can continue to light up the scoreboard, it could blaze a trail to the SEC final. Achieve that, and it will accomplish the unthinkable.

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Seton Hall Pirates (20-10; KenPom: 54 SOS: 51 Current Seed: No. 10) – Iowa St. at Kansas. Vandy at Florida. UT-Arlington at St. Mary’s. Among those Shocker Specials, the Pirates’ surprising dispatch of Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse last Saturday entered the conversation for ‘best win’ by any time this season. Any matchup with the Hall is akin to walking a stubborn mastiff. It’s a major chore. It doesn’t possess much depth, but the versatility and slashing abilities of Desi Rodriguez and Khadeen Carrington combined with window waxing contributions from Angel Delgado exhausts opponents. Outstanding on the glass, formidable on defense (0.96 pts/poss allowed) and rising to the occasion on offense (1.08 pts/poss last four), the Pirates present challenges. They open what should be a highly entertaining Big East tournament against Marquette, a foe they split with in the regular season. Collect a W and they could wind up climbing a line or two. Lose and they should remain fixed as a safe No. 10 or No. 11. Regardless where they wind up, the Pirates are a confident, seasoned bunch that wants to washy away the bitterness of last year’s first round NCAA tournament letdown.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (18-12; KenPom: 29 SOS: 16 Current Seed: No. 11) – Just looking at an upcoming matchup against Wake Forest will have an opposing coach gasping for breath. Danny Manning’s high-flying, John Ross-fast group burned rubber as they sprinted toward the checkered flag. Driving into the winner’s circle against Pittsburgh, Louisville and at Virginia Tech to end the ACC regular season, they’re in prime position to return to the NCAA’s main event for the first time since 2010, provided Boston College doesn’t deflate their tires Tuesday. Magnificent offensively, the Deacs rank No. 8 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They feature three sharpshooters who net over 40 percent from distance (Keyshawn Woods, Mitchell Wilbekin and Austin Arians), commit few turnovers and attack the tin, drawing contact and twisting knives at the free throw line (77.0 FT%). Additionally, sophomore sensation John Collins, who’s registered a dozen double-doubles this year, is an unstoppable force in the paint. Wake’s defense ranks up there with fat guy pickup games (1.03 pts/poss allowed), but it has the necessary inside/outside presences to motor its way to a Sweet Sixteen berth.

DA BEARS (Moving Down)

Illinois Fighting Illini (18-13; KenPom: 67 SOS: 19 Current Seed: Third team OUT) – With just over three minutes left to Illinois’ NCAA tournament life, it maintained a two-point lead in Piscataway. Instead of continuing to attack, it employed a complacent and ultra-conservative strategy to minimize possessions and milk the clock. It backfired. In spectacularly awful fashion, the experienced Illini, thanks to a Deshawn Freeman three, lost to the nation’s 174th-best team, per the RPI, and halted almost all of their postseason momentum. Only Eugene from ‘The Walking Dead’ could’ve appreciated such cowardice. Now in an uncompromising position, head coach John Groce must motivate his club to an improbable run through the Big Ten tournament to have a fighting chance of attending the dance. Reach the event’s final by beating Michigan, Purdue and Minnesota (most likely) and it could apply powder to its glaring black eye. Under that circumstance, Illinois would have eight RPI top-50 wins to go along with a top-20 strength of schedule, which could be enough. Still, a quick recovery from the disappointment at Rutgers seems highly unlikely. Groce, who briefly quelled the headhunters just days ago, may be a dead man walking.

Dayton Flyers (24-6; KenPom: 34 SOS: 21 Current Seed: No. 7) – Presumably too comfortable after nailing down the Atlantic 10 title earlier in the week against VCU, the Flyers traveled to George Washington, crashed and burned. The setback brought unwanted attention to their resume, a profile lacking gusto. Yes, regardless of its performance in the A-10 tourney, Dayton is dancing, but where it’s ultimately seeded may shock people. It sports quality wins against RPI top-50 opponents Vanderbilt, Rhode Island (twice) and the aforementioned Rams, however, downfalls versus GW, UMass and Nebraska, all 80-plus RPI squads, are smears. Get bounced early this week and it could attract a tossup 8-9 matchup in Round 1. Still, the Flyers’ continuity, chemistry and team-wide balance makes them dangerous. They rank inside the top-50 in offense and defensive efficiency and, because of Scoochie Smith’s stellar play, are one of the best assist-to-field-goal clubs in the country. Collectively, they also convert over 38 percent from distance. Archie Miller is a brilliant tactician who’s experienced considerable postseason success, but the Flyers are not nearly as battle tested as their record or name may indicate.

Michigan St. Spartans (18-13; KenPom: 50 SOS: 8 Current Seed: No. 10) – This time seemingly almost every season, the Spartans ride into the NCAA tournament on a lightning bolt. Blooming tulips, green beer and deep Michigan St. postseason runs are, after all, rites of spring. But this year, Tom Izzo’s team, sitting at an uncharacteristic 18-13, is fortunate to even be in a position for an at-large berth. Injuries and ineptitude have halted MSU’s typical ‘peak’ March execution. Miles Bridges, an uber athletic NBA-caliber forward, continues to machete defenses, but complementary options have largely played erratically. How Alvin Ellis, Joshua Langford, Matt McQuaid and Tum Tum Narin perform will decide whether Sparty adds its 13th Sweet Sixteen appearance this century. Limping into the Big Ten tourney dropping three of its last five, it must cut down on turnovers (20.8 TO%), generate more second-chance opportunities (No. 203 in OR%) and convert more freebies (66.3 FT%) to compete. If improvements are made, it could spring an upset or two, but in all likelihood the projected double-digit seed will suffer an end similar to Thermopylae.

DA BUBBLE (Living in limbo)

Iowa Hawkeyes (18-13; KenPom: 65 SOS: 43) – As dominos continue to fall around them, the young, scrappy Hawkeyes, who’ve matured greatly over the last couple weeks, are astonishingly knocking at the door of an at-large bid. Glancing at the resume, one could argue Iowa has enough noteworthy wins to join college basketball’s marquee event. It won impressively at Maryland and at Wisconsin and generated home triumphs over Michigan, Purdue and intrastate nemesis Iowa St. Those trademarks stack up better than perceived tourney teams, USC, Wake Forest, Xavier and Illinois St. So why are the Fightin’ Frans not universally in? A bland RPI and eye-gouging blemish to Nebraska-Omaha offer explanations. Still, with Tyler Cook and Nicholas Baer turning up their respective games, the Hawkeyes are a serious sleeper in the Big Ten tournament. If any of Iowa’s fellow bubble residents slip and it wins multiple games this week, it becomes very, very interesting.

Illinois St. Redbirds (26-6; KenPom: 42 SOS: 171) – Ask any bracket ‘expert’ and they’ll tell you, this is the weakest bunch of bubble dopes in college basketball history. Each has serious question marks. Each has fleas. With that in mind, when the Selection Committee scrubs and picks the field, Illinois St. will most certainly land in the “under consideration” group. If the eye test, pre-Wichita thrashing, and secondary metrics (e.g. KenPom) are truly considered in the process, the Redbirds may hear their name called Sunday. However, their lackluster effort against the Shockers in the Missouri Valley Tournament finale, did them no favors. It’s possible Committee members barely watched them during the regular season. If the case, the curb-stomping they suffered, on a national stage no less, could prove to be a back-breaker. Hope isn’t completely lost, especially if teams like Vandy, Rhode Island and Xavier exit early this week, but it’s probable Illinois St. draws a top seed in the NIT. The signature wins (one) and strength of schedule (171) are major deterrents.

Kansas St. Wildcats (19-12; KenPom: 33 SOS: 54) – On life support only days ago, the Wildcats, due in large part to tumbling teams around them, are very close to reentering the projected NCAA tournament field. Embattled coach, Bruce Weber, whose derrière is cooking on the hot seat, desperately needs a positive showing in the Big 12 appetizer before the main course is set. To accomplish that goal, Kansas St. will need to undercut Baylor, a team it split with in the regular season, in the quarterfinals Thursday. Do that and notch another victory, likely against West Virginia, and its chances of sneaking into the dance increases exponentially. In that scenario, the Wildcats would possess five RPI top-50 wins, one of those, Baylor, logged impressively on the road. If inconsistent Kamau Stokes and his teammates, who combined averaged a wretched 0.97 points per possession over their final five regular season games, can tickle the twine, they could pull off the trick.

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