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Interpretive Dance: North Carolina making case for a No. 1

Continue their recent hot streak and the Tar Heels will score a No. 1 seed. (Getty)
Continue their recent hot streak and the Tar Heels will score a No. 1 seed. (Getty)

Still recuperating from your midweek bar crawl? Are you nostril deep in term paper research? Have no fear, fellow bracketeers. As a companion to the Bracket Big Board, the I.D. is here to highlight what teams are gaining and what teams are losing ground in the march toward the NCAA Tournament.

DA BULLS (Moving Up)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Record: 23-5; KenPom: 6 SOS: 19 Current Seed: No. 1) – Saturday night Justin Jackson had more close-up camera time than D.J. Khaled. That’s the type of performance he logged against reeling Virginia. His 20-4-6 line combined with Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks’ paint dominance suplexed the Cavs and elevated UNC from a projected No. 2 to a No. 1 seed. Most impressively, the Heels limited UVA to an appalling 0.67 points per possession. Replicate that energy on D postseason and you can virtually guarantee a Final Four berth. Roy Williams’ team is flush with athleticism, size and speed. Tops in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 4 in scoring efficiency, it possesses the necessary characteristics, again, when it defends. Win three of its last four and make the ACC Tournament finals and a No. 1 seed in the South seems inevitable.

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Wichita St. Shockers (25-4; KenPom: 13 SOS: 202 Current Seed: No. 8) – Though it’s received little fanfare compared to the Ron Baker/Fred VanVleet teams of recent memory, Wichita is doing what it normally does in the Valley, obliterate opponents. Standing at 15-1 and smashing clubs by an average margin of 34.6 points in home league games, the Shockers are quietly jumping lines. Over the past two weeks on the Bracket Big Board, they’ve graduated from a No. 10 to a No. 8 seed. Wonderfully balanced, Greg Marshall’s bunch is one of eight schools nationally to rank top-20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They possess the size – Darral Willis, Shaq Morris and Markis McDuffie list at 6’8″ or taller – to compete with high-majors. Also effective from three (Landry Shamet 42.7 3PT%), deep and fundamentally sound elsewhere, they will be a tough NCAA Tournament draw. Romp through the rest of the regular season and Arch Madness and the Shockers will likely land on the No. 7 line. Beware No. 2s.

Oklahoma St. Cowboys (18-9; KenPom: 20 SOS: 22 Current Seed: No. 7) – Midway through January, the Cowboys were, for all intents and purposes, out to pasture. At 0-6 in Big 12 play, their despondent execution had them on a path of futility. But a few Brad Underwood tweaks on defense and, remarkably, OK State is not only in the NCAA Tournament, it could entice a favorable seed. Since its stumble out of the gate, it has ripped off eight wins in its last nine games, including crucial tallies against West Virginia, TCU (twice) and an out-of-conference victory over Arkansas. On paper, the ‘Boys are a poor man’s UCLA. Floor general Jawun Evans is their Lonzo Ball, a precise passer (27:6 AST:TO split last three) who can also score in bunches. Flanked by veteran sharpshooters Phil Forte, Jeffery Carroll and Leyton Hammonds, Evans and Co. collectively convert over 40 percent from three and average 1.25 points per possession. OSU’s defense remains leaky (No. 10 in D efficiency in the Big 12), but when filling the cup, it can hang with almost anyone. Its ending schedule is no walk in the park (at K-State, Texas Tech, at Iowa St., Kansas), but finish 3-1 and it could attract a No. 6 seed.

DA BEARS (Moving Down)

Virginia Cavilers (18-8; KenPom: 8 SOS: 7 Current Seed: No. 6) – In the midst of its worst stretch since 2013, Virginia has plummeted down an empty elevator shaft. Though it currently ranks No. 1 nationally in defensive efficiency, its trademark pack-line scheme has untethered of late. In its last five losses, UVA has conceded 1.13 points per possession. Most concerning, the Cavs couldn’t shoot a golfball through a hula hoop. They’ve failed to register 0.98 points per possession in three straight, bottoming out at a ghastly 0.67 points per possession in a blowout loss at North Carolina. As a result of their free fall, they’ve nosedived from a projected No. 3 to a No. 5 seed. To reverse course, Tony Bennett needs someone other than star guard London Perrantes to step up. Marial Shayock, Devon Hall and Isaiah Wilkins have been woefully inconsistent. The Cavs finish the ACC regular season with three of four at home, contests in which they desperately need to work out the kinks.

South Carolina Gamecocks (20-7; KenPom: 29 SOS: 48 Current Seed: No. 7) – Not long ago, the Gamecocks were in a tight race with Kentucky and Florida for the SEC crown. However, tripping up in three of their last four tilts, they are now a full two games behind the pacesetters. Similar to Virginia, an offensive outage explains South Carolina’s slide. Forward Sindarius Thornwell is a dynamite multidimensional contributor and PJ Dozier has done his part, but Frank Martin has received little from his other starters and, most especially, his bench. That’s precisely why his team ranks No. 142 in the country in offensive efficiency. Because of its recent swoon, South Carolina has the appearance of a No. 7 seed. Yes, it logged key non-conference wins over Michigan and Syracuse and undercut Florida earlier this year, but the SEC’s unappealing perception drags it down. Get manhandled in a rematch with the Gators Tuesday and it will tumble further.

Xavier Musketeers (18-9; KenPom: 37 SOS: 9 Current Seed: No. 8) – There may be no team that’s experienced more unrest than the Musketeers. Point man Edmond Sumner tore his ACL a couple weeks back, Myles Davis left the program and leading scorer Trevon Bluiett has missed multiple games with a swelled ankle. Without that firepower, Xavier, unsurprisingly, has suffered three-straight defeats, two of those coming against bubbly opponents (Providence and Marquette). Its upcoming road matchup against another desperate opponent, Seton Hall, is crucial. Emerge victorious and it firms up its at-large standing. Lose, and it could buy a ticket for a seat on the same partially submerged ship as the Friars, Eagles and Pirates. The Musketeers’ margin for error is shrinking rapidly.

DA BUBBLE (Living in limbo)

Michigan St. Spartans (16-11; KenPom: 54 SOS: 15) – The badly sprained knee Eron Harris, who was averaging nearly 11 points per game, suffered at Purdue was a tide-shifting moment for the Spartans. Without the senior’s leadership and outside stroke rest of season, Michigan St., which was already struggling on offense and protecting the basketball (21.8 TO% in conference), could roll quickly downhill. Scarier for the Spartans, they could miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since “Return of the Mack” was bumping your tape deck (1997). To prevent that from happening, Matt McQuaid and Alvin Ellis must pick up the slack down the homestretch. Finish 2-2 and exit early in the Big Ten tournament and MSU will have to seriously sweat out Selection Sunday.

Syracuse Orange (16-12; KenPom: 48 SOS: 61) – Syracuse is another brand name sitting squarely on the bubble. On Sunday, its furious near comeback at Georgia Tech was thwarted by an atrocious moving pick call on Tyler Roberson. The damaging setback moved it out of the field and onto the scrapheap. Rough. Due to the extreme weakness of this year’s bubble, the Orange still have a shot to redeem themselves. On the resume, they feature three notable wins, though each game was taken at home (Miami, Florida St. and Virginia). However, the mountain to climb just grew taller. Their next two games, versus Duke and at Louisville, present profile-building opportunities, but, barring a magical ACC Tournament run, splitting is a near necessity. Missing the Madness for the second time in three years – recall Syracuse self-imposed a postseason ban in 2015 – is now a distinct possibility.

Providence Friars (16-11; KenPom: 58 SOS: 37) – On the peripheral only days ago, the Friars are knocking at the door of a potential at-large bid, despite their 6-8 record in the rugged Big East. Wins at Marquette and at home versus Butler and Xavier have them on the proper path. Providence’s three RPI top-50 wins are equal to expected at-larges Cincinnati, Northwestern, Oklahoma St. and Iowa St. Missteps against Boston College, DePaul and St. John’s are black eyes, but win their last four and Rodney Bullock and friends may dance.

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