Home-field 'advantage': Which college football teams play best/worst in their own house?

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (Gardner Minshew mustaches sold separately to those manly enough to grow them):

[More Dash: 12 CFP contenders | How LSU beats ‘Bama | CFB-to-NFL candidates]

THIRD QUARTER

HOME OVERACHIEVERS AND UNDERACHIEVERS

With the biggest game of the weekend slated for LSU’s famed Tiger Stadium, The Dash figured it was time to do a data dive and figure out who really has the most effective home-field advantages in college football. The data: true home contests from the 2015 season through last weekend — roughly 25 home games per team.

There are two ways to look at the numbers, and both are represented here: a program’s raw record at home, and a program’s record against the spread. The Dash is partial to the latter, since it provides a snapshot of how a team performs at home in comparison to expert expectations.

The top six at home against the spread:

Washington State (21) is 17-7 against the spread, a stout .708 winning percentage. The Cougars are 4-0 both straight-up and ATS this season at Martin Stadium, and have won 11 straight at home. With three home games remaining this season, 7-1 Wazzu is absolutely the favorite to win its first Pac-12 North title.

Oklahoma is 16-7 against the spread, a .696 winning percentage. The Sooners are just 3-2 in Memorial Stadium against the Las Vegas line this year, but were 5-1 last year and 4-2 the two years before that. Oklahoma has been an underdog only once at home in the last decade (at least), by a single point against Ohio State in 2016.

Arizona State (22) is 15-9 against the spread, a .625 winning percentage. First-year coach Herm Edwards is off to a good start exceeding expectations, with a 3-1 record in Sun Devil Stadium that includes an early upset of Michigan State. (Arizona State added a road upset of USC on Saturday, its sixth game decided by seven points or less this season.)

Penn State (23) is 16-10 against the spread, a .615 winning percentage. The much-discussed atmosphere in Beaver Stadium is real, and tangibly helpful to the home team. You can ask Iowa about that, after a miscommunicated audible at the goal line Saturday led to a game-sealing interception by the Nittany Lions.

Texas Tech (24) is 13-8-1 against the spread, a .614 winning percentage. Kliff Kingsbury isn’t the most popular guy in Lubbock, but his teams have been pretty good as of late in Jones AT&T Stadium by Vegas standards. The Red Raiders will be a 10-point home underdog Saturday night when Oklahoma visits.

Mississippi State (25) is 15-10 against the spread, a .600 winning percentage. Maybe it’s the cowbells, but Davis Wade Stadium became an oppressive place for visitors many years ago and got even tougher during the Dan Mullen Era. Joe Moorhead has picked up where he left off, most notably with home wins over SEC West rivals Auburn and Texas A&M this month.

(Is it coincidental that four of the six are certifiably difficult locations to reach? Pullman, State College, Lubbock and Starkville are all in various parts of Nowhere USA. Perhaps visiting teams are so fatigued/dispirited upon arrival that they’re vulnerable. Perhaps not.)

The top five home programs from 2015-present based strictly on straight-up winning percentage:

Alabama: 24-1. The loss: Mississippi in 2015. Current home winning streak: 23 games.

Clemson: 24-1. The loss: Pittsburgh in 2016. Current home winning streak: 12.

Ohio State: 24-2. The losses: Michigan State in 2015, Oklahoma last year. Current home winning streak: 10.

Oklahoma: 21-2. The losses: Ohio State in 2016, Iowa State last year. Current home winning streak: eight.

Penn State 23-3. The losses: Michigan in 2015, Ohio State and Michigan State this year. Current home winning streak: one.

THE HOME UNDERACHIEVERS

Who has not gotten it done since 2015 against the spread:

TCU (26) is 6-16-1 against the spread, a .283 winning percentage. That includes an 0-4 mark this season in Amon G. Carter Stadium, and an 0-7 mark in 2016. The 2018 Horned Frogs are among the biggest disappointments in the country.

Kentucky is 8-19 against the spread in Commonwealth Stadium, a .296 winning percentage. Compare that to an 18-9 straight-up home record in that time and one thing is clear for a program that plays a lot of non-conference cupcakes: The Wildcats play up or down to the level of their competition. They’re 10-point home underdogs Saturday for the biggest game in Commonwealth Stadium history, against Georgia.

Nebraska (27) is 7-17-1 against the spread in Memorial Stadium, a .300 winning percentage. That includes a smooth 1-10 over this season and last, as the most recent Cornhuskers have flagrantly failed to live up to the habitual respect accorded them by oddsmakers.

UCLA (28) is 7-16 against the spread in the Rose Bowl, a .304 winning percentage. Chip Kelly’s first UCLA team is just 1-4 against the Vegas line (and 1-4 straight up). Even last year’s team that went 6-0 at home was just 3-3 against the spread.

Illinois (29) is 8-16 against the spread in Memorial Stadium, a .333 winning percentage. The Illini get to play a lot of Big Ten games as a home underdog, but that doesn’t seem to matter. They’ve lost eight consecutive league games at home straight up.

Auburn (30) is 9-17-1 against the spread in Jordan-Hare Stadium, a .352 winning percentage. Much like Kentucky, the Tigers tend to win a lot at home (20-7 straight up) but not by enough points to satisfy everyone. This year’s team is the classic example of that: 4-1 at home straight up, 1-4 against the number.

The bottom five strictly by straight-up winning percentage:

Kansas: 6-18. If you want to know how bad the Jayhawks have been, consider that half of those six home wins have come this season. Prior to 2018, they were 3-17 at home.

Rutgers: 8-18. They chopped wood. Then there was a Flood. Now all that’s left is Ash.

Oregon State: 8-15. The Beavers haven’t beaten an FBS opponent at home since 2016. Then again, they hadn’t beaten an FBS opponent anywhere since 2016 until Saturday, when they shocked Colorado in Boulder.

Purdue 10-15. Opening this season with three straight losses in Ross-Ade Stadium was a flashback to the Darrell Hazell days, when he was going 7-21 at home. But then the Boilermakers beat Boston College and Ohio State, and the home swag made a comeback.

Illinois: 10-14. The home wins the last two years: Ball State, Western Kentucky, Kent State and Western Illinois. Not exactly dazzling. The Illini will play its final two home games, Saturday against Minnesota and Nov. 17 against Iowa, with a new defensive coordinator after Hardy Nickerson resigned Monday.

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