Yahoo Sports History of franchise-tagged QBs shows Dak Prescott will probably sign an extension, and Cowboys should hope he does
There’s a lot of debate about whether Dak Prescott is worth what he’s asking for, but that’s missing the point.
If you want to argue that the Dallas Cowboys should move on from Prescott instead of paying him a long-term extension, that’s reasonable. He’ll command a lot of money. Teams tying up a huge percentage of their cap into one player generally don’t win big.
But don’t act like this is eBay with a “or best offer” option. The Cowboys have to pay Prescott what he wants, or someone else will. There’s no universe in which the Cowboys determine Prescott is only “worth” $20 million a year and he accepts that. Pay or move on. There are two possible answers to the multiple-choice question.
The history of franchise-tagged quarterbacks — which is actually much shorter than you’d expect — says the Cowboys won’t let Prescott play on the tag. It also says if he does play on the tag, he might be leaving soon.
Dak Prescott would be rare QB to play on tag
NFL Research, an arm of the league’s media division, posted an interesting tidbit about tagged quarterbacks.
#Cowboys QB @dak is the 8th QB to be designated a franchise player since 1993 but only 2 have actually played a season under the tag
• Drew Brees in 05 (Chargers)
• Kirk Cousins in 16 & 17 (Redskins)
Both would go on to sign deals with a different team the following season— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) May 27, 2020
The numbers themselves are fascinating. The franchise tag was created mostly so teams didn’t have to worry about losing star quarterbacks. It wasn’t thought up with the idea that Matt Judon-level players would be held back from testing free agency. But only eight quarterbacks have gotten it, and only two ended up playing on the tag over the last 27 years. The threat of the tag has presumably led to many quarterback contract extensions, however.
What we can learn from that short history is if the Cowboys and Prescott don’t reach a deal by the July 15 deadline for teams to sign tagged players to long-term extensions, Dallas is in danger of losing its quarterback.
Prescott could go Kirk Cousins route
The Brees and Cousins examples are different. The San Diego Chargers had Philip Rivers waiting to take over for Brees, who injured his shoulder in the season finale. Brees left for the New Orleans Saints after the 2005 season.
Cousins and Prescott is a better match. Washington never really wanted to pay Cousins what he was asking for. After two years on the franchise tag — two tags wouldn’t be easy for Dallas to pull off, considering the 2021 tag for Prescott would be almost $38 million — Cousins was the incredibly rare quarterback in his prime to hit free agency.
Cousins isn’t great, but he was good and available. The Minnesota Vikings gave Cousins a historic, fully-guaranteed three-year, $84 million deal, and recently added on a two-year, $66 million extension. It’s fine to believe the Cowboys would be better off using their cap space in other ways, but don’t fool yourself into believing Prescott won’t get paid, by Dallas or someone else.
Starting over at quarterback is not easy. There’s no guarantee the Cowboys’ replacement for Prescott would be anywhere close to as good as he is, regardless of where you rank him among the NFL’s starters. That’s why teams generally just pay good-not-great quarterbacks.
The Cowboys have a loaded offense and Prescott might put up bigger numbers than he did last year, when he had 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns. He’s just 26 years old. Even if the Cowboys paid roughly $70 million on tags in 2020 and 2021, Prescott would enter free agency at 28 in 2022. He’d likely be a much more attractive free agent than Cousins or any other quarterback to hit the market in the free agency era.
The July 15 deadline is a big one for the Cowboys. The price tag may be shocking, but Prescott has a lot of leverage. Dallas can either pay up, or history shows Prescott might not be a Cowboy much longer.
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