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Possible reason for Jets' hardball tactics vs. Fitzpatrick: $62M Schaub blunder

Nearly four years ago, New York Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan had a front-row seat for a franchise-shaping quarterback mistake.

Maccagnan was on hand when the Houston Texans made an ill-fated commitment to Matt Schaub in 2012. That's something worth considering when it comes to the Jets' hardball deal being offered to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. There's a lesson to be learned in failure, and Maccagnan got an inside view when Schaub and the Texans cratered. It taught him that a quarterback's broader history matters, and caution should always be weighed against long-term commitment.

Ryan Fitzpatrick could earn $36 million over three years, depending on how incentives are structured. (AP)
Ryan Fitzpatrick could earn $36 million over three years, depending on how incentives are structured. (AP)

In 2012, Maccagnan was the director of college scouting with the Texans. At the time, it was a franchise that had similarities to the 2016 Jets: strong defense, a solid running game and enough skill position pieces on offense to strike an ideal balance. Like Fitzpatrick for the Jets in 2015, Schaub was a reliable cog in the middle of Houston's offense – a 30-something quarterback who was statistically in the top-third in the NFL at his position, despite being dogged by injury and some occasional head-scratching decisions. Like Fitzpatrick's suitability with Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, Schaub was the right fit for head coach Gary Kubiak's offense. Not necessarily an elite NFL quarterback, but a good player in his system.

Entering 2012, Schaub had one year left on his deal. The economics of the NFL demanded a new contract, but there was risk involved. Schaub was coming off a broken foot the previous season, making it the third time in five years that he had missed at least five games as the starting quarterback. He also hadn't won a playoff game (T.J. Yates was the starting QB in the 2011 season's playoff run) and was still prone to bouts of inconsistency. But his overall numbers looked good and team owner Bob McNair believed in him. That was enough to keep the Texans out of the Peyton Manning sweepstakes – and ultimately, enough to push an extension forward.

After the 2012 season opener, Houston made a solid commitment, extending Schaub's deal with a four-year contract guaranteeing $24.75 million in new money and potentially topping out at nearly $62 million. It put Schaub sixth among NFL quarterbacks in average salary, one slot above the San Diego Chargers' Philip Rivers, and one slot below the New England Patriots' Tom Brady. Outside of the paycheck, Schaub wasn't in that class. He appeared to have peaked statistically and his ceiling didn't show indications of going much higher. But in the economics of football and the quarterback position, where fit often dictates deals, it made sense. Schaub's deal was a win-win for both sides.

Until it wasn't.

A little over 18 months after signing that extension, Schaub was traded to the Oakland Raiders in the 2013 offseason. One year after his extension, the wheels came off his career. He inexplicably set an NFL record with four interceptions returned for touchdowns in four straight games and never looked the same again. And he's been a journeyman ever since, spending 2015 with the Baltimore Ravens and signing with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason.

Matt Schaub was 46-42 in seven seasons with the Texans. (AP)
Matt Schaub was 46-42 in seven seasons with the Texans. (AP)

For the Houston Texans, who are still trying to right themselves at quarterback, all of this is a painful reminder of the wrong contract commitment at the wrong time. For Maccagnan, it's likely a piece of information that went into the memory banks. For the Jets, that's probably a good thing where the larger picture is concerned.

And here's the larger picture: When it comes to quarterbacks who are repurposed off the NFL's scrap heap, history tends to repeat itself. One year before the Texans signed Schaub to his regrettable extension, the Buffalo Bills did the same thing … with Ryan Fitzpatrick. A six-year, $59 million extension with $24 million guaranteed. Like Schaub and the Texans, that deal lasted roughly 18 months before the Bills recognized their mistake and cut Fitzpatrick.

That doesn't mean Fitzpatrick is doomed to fail again. It just means the Jets have every reason to approach his negotiations with caution and a tightly clenched checkbook. Maccagnan saw that lesson firsthand with the Texans. And Gailey, the Jets' offensive coordinator, saw it firsthand when he was the head coach of the Bills in 2011.

Multiple league sources have laid out the Jets' offer to Fitzpatrick: three years for $24 million, including $12 million in the first year, and incentives that could add another $12 million in the final two seasons of the deal. All told, Fitzpatrick could earn $36 million over three years, depending on how the incentives are structured.

In a league where Sam Bradford got a two-year deal for $36 million (with $26 million guaranteed) and Brock Osweiler is getting four years and $72 million in Houston (with $37 million guaranteed), the offer to Fitzpatrick isn't even middle-tier starter money. And that's a prickly issue with Fitzpatrick coming off a career year in 2015, with 31 touchdowns and 3,905 passing yards.

Fitzpatrick is a 33-year-old quarterback who has played with six franchises in 11 seasons. For the majority of that career, his best moments were in the middle of the NFL's quarterback pack, and his worst moments were at the bottom of that group. He has a 43-61-1 record as a starter, zero Pro Bowls, and in an era of high-volume passing games has thrown for more than 24 touchdowns one time – last season. The largest portions of his success have all come under Gailey.

From where the Jets are standing, they revived Fitzpatrick's career last season by pairing him with Gailey and giving him the skill position pieces he lacked at other stops in his career. In 11 years, he has earned a shade over $39 million. The Jets are giving him the opportunity to almost double that with another $36 million over three years if he can sustain his level of play from 2015.

And that's the rub in all of this. Maccagnan and the Jets are taking a pragmatic approach to Fitzpatrick. He'll be paid solid money if he can prove he's a solid starter. The Jets are also firm in their belief that it's a deal no other NFL team has offered to this point, as Fitzpatrick's market as a free agent was essentially nonexistent. At the very least, Fitzpatrick's market never came close to exceeding the terms the Jets have already put on the table. If the market says Fitzpatrick is worth an incentive-laden, three-year deal for $36 million, that's what he's worth, even if the deal is only a one-year contract worth $12 million-$15 million guaranteed.

There's no denying a need for the Jets to bring Fitzpatrick back. But need hasn't moved the needle in this negotiation in four months. And the market hasn't emboldened Fitzpatrick, either.

So the Jets will be fine playing hardball all the way to training camp. Maccagnan isn't going to suddenly forget about that ugly Schaub implosion, or Fitzpatrick's extension bottoming out with the Bills. History matters for everyone in this deal. But it goes back a little further than last season, whether Fitzpatrick finds that convenient or not.