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Heat reaches 20-game mark at 9-11. Observations from first 20 games and a Jimmy Butler update

Al Diaz/adiaz@miamiherald.com

This is not exactly where the Miami Heat expected to be at the 20-game mark.

At 9-11, the Heat entered Saturday in 11th place in the Eastern Conference despite returning 13 players from last season’s roster that finished just one win short of reaching the NBA Finals.

There have been disappointing home losses to the Chicago Bulls and Portland Trail Blazers, the Heat’s first winless four-game trip since 2008 and lots of injuries. But there have also been some positives mixed in there, including center Bam Adebayo’s 38-point performance in Friday’s 110-107 home win over the Washington Wizards.

“At the end of the day, it’s about wins and losses no matter what,” guard Kyle Lowry said, with the Heat set to open a four-game trip on Sunday against the Atlanta Hawks (5 p.m. Bally Sports Sun). “I think we understand once we get together [and get healthy], we know what we can possibly do. But we have to get together, we have to win games and play games and get on the floor together and get minutes and get into these type of clutch-time situations so we can all be on the same page. It’s always a bigger picture view. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.”

Here are 10 observations from the Heat’s first 20 games:

The Heat needs to get healthy: The last time the Heat’s opening night starting lineup of Lowry, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin and Adebayo were all healthy and available to play together was on Nov. 1. That was Miami’s eighth game of the season. Plus, guard Victor Oladipo (left knee tendinosis) and center Omer Yurtseven (left ankle surgery) have yet to play this season.

Butler (right knee soreness) and Yurtseven were the only Heat players who did not travel with the team to Atlanta on Saturday for the start of the trip. But the hope is that Butler will join the Heat at some point during the trip to make his return, possibly as soon as Wednesday against the Celtics in Boston.

For Sunday’s game against the Hawks, Butler, Oladipo and Yurtseven have already been ruled out.

Dewayne Dedmon (left foot plantar fasciitis), Herro (left ankle sprain), Duncan Robinson (left ankle sprain), Max Strus (right shoulder impingement), Gabe Vincent (left knee effusion) and Martin (non-COVID illness) are listed as questionable.

Jamal Cain (non-COVID illness) is probable.

There have been a lot of close games: The Heat has played a league-high 15 clutch games this season and is 7-8 in those situations. A clutch game is defined as a game that has a margin of five points or fewer inside the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. At this pace, Miami will end the regular season with 61 clutch games. The Heat was dominant enough to avoid a high number of close games last season, appearing in just 38 clutch games for the 19th-most in the NBA.

Last season’s three-point shooting success hasn’t carried over: After shooting an NBA-best 37.9 percent from three-point range last season, the Heat entered Saturday ranked 23rd in the NBA with a team three-point percentage of 33.5 percent. It’s important that turns around because three-pointers are a big part of Miami’s winning formula. The Heat closed last season with a nearly perfect 32-2 record when shooting 40 percent or better from deep and was just 32-34 when it didn’t. Miami has shot 40 percent or better on threes in just two of the first 20 games this season.

Adebayo has been a more assertive scorer: Heat president Pat Riley challenged Adebayo to average 15 shot attempts per game this season and the Heat’s starting center has delivered so far. Adebayo is averaging career-highs in points (19.9) and shot attempts (14.7) per game this season. He has been consistent, too, taking double-digit shot attempts in 17 of the 18 games he has appeared in. Adebayo has also made sure to do most of his damage from inside the paint, as 220 of his 265 (83 percent) shot attempts this season have been from within the paint.

The Heat is on pace to set the modern-day record for most zone defense played: Since Synergy Sports began tracking the stat in 2008-09, the current league record was set by the Heat with 1,053 zone defensive possessions played during the 2018-19 season. While still early in the schedule, the Heat is on track to play 2,140 zone possessions this season to shatter that mark. Miami’s injury issues have led to more zone recently. The Heat has averaged 54.6 zone possessions per game in the last five games, as it just looks to survive with so many key players out.

The Heat’s man-to-man defense has not been good: The Heat’s zone has been very effective, limiting teams to just 0.86 points per possession. But the Heat’s man scheme is allowing 1.03 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports, which is the second-highest mark in the NBA ahead of only the Sacramento Kings. That’s a big reason why Miami entered Saturday ranked 12th in the NBA in defensive rating despite its zone success. The Heat has finished with a top-10 defensive rating in six of the past seven seasons. To do it again, Miami will need its man-to-man defense to be much better.

Martin has made a very positive impact: With Martin on the court this season, the Heat has outscored opponents by 4.8 points per 100 possessions. Without Martin on the court, opponents have outscored the Heat by 10.4 points per 100 possessions. The driving force behind that team-best on/off differential is the defensive end. The Heat has allowed just 104.2 points per 100 possessions with Martin in the game compared to 117.3 points per 100 possessions when he hasn’t been on the court. Martin, who is playing as a full-time starter for the first time in his NBA career, is averaging career-highs in points (10.9), rebounds (4.9), assists (2.1), steals (1.3) and minutes (32.4) this season

There has also been a big drop-off when Butler isn’t playing: While the Heat’s defense has surprisingly been better with Butler off the court, it’s the offense that hasn’t been able to function consistently without him. Miami has scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions with Butler in the game for an offensive rating that would rank second-best in the NBA among teams for the season. But with Butler off the court, the Heat has managed to score just 100.5 points per 100 possessions for an offensive rating that would be the worst in the league among teams for the season.

The Heat’s new starting lineup has actually been solid: Because of injuries, the Heat’s opening night starting lineup of Lowry, Herro, Butler, Martin and Adebayo has played in just seven games together this season. But their limited time has been positive. The Heat has outscored opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions in the 88 minutes this five-man combination has played together. It’s just that the Heat’s lineup of Lowry, Strus, Butler, Martin and Adebayo has been dominant to outscore teams by 32.1 points per 100 possessions in 73 minutes together to amplify the discussion of whether Strus should start instead of Herro.

Without Herro, the Heat’s bench has been different: After closing last regular season as the the NBA’s highest-scoring bench at 40.5 points per game, the Heat entered Saturday with the fifth-lowest scoring bench in the league at 28.9 points per game this season. The Heat bench’s noticeable dip in scoring from last season can be explained by Herro’s promotion to the starting lineup. Herro was the league’s leading bench scorer at 20.8 points per game and became the first player in franchise history to be named the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year last season.