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Greg Cosell's QB Study: Who is the Broncos' best option?

Mark Sanchez (6), Trevor Siemian (13) and Paxton Lynch (12) (AP)
Mark Sanchez (6), Trevor Siemian (13) and Paxton Lynch (12) (AP)

You can’t analyze the Denver Broncos’ quarterback situation without first considering how they want to play.

In order for the Broncos to win, certainly early in the season, they have to play a certain way. They have to run the ball and play the same great defense they did last season. Ideally, they want to stay on schedule and in manageable down-and-distance situations, using the run game to do so, and even in difficult third-and-long situations they won’t ask their quarterback to do too much. Third-and-long could end up as a screen to a running back or a bubble screen to a receiver. If they have to punt, that’s OK because they have a really good defense. The Broncos will assume the score will be the same when they get the ball back.

They won’t ask their quarterback to make difficult throws, no matter who ends up being the starter.

Given all of that, I prefer Trevor Siemian to Mark Sanchez at this point (and you can make an argument for rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch, who we’ll get to in a bit). I’d rather see what Siemian can bring to the table, because I know what Sanchez brings to the table at this point in his career.

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Others may disagree, but I think Siemian is a better throwing talent than Sanchez. Not by a lot, but he’s a different type of quarterback. He’s more of a statuesque drop-back quarterback. That’s not Sanchez. And Sanchez is a veteran with a clearly defined track record of inconsistency and questionable decision making, things that have kept him from living up to his draft status.

Siemian is inexperienced (he hasn’t thrown an NFL pass and didn’t have a ton of college experience either), but Broncos coach Gary Kubiak’s comments from the past few months indicate he feels Siemian has a good grasp of what they’re doing and he’ll run the offense they want to run. Through two preseason games, for whatever it’s worth, there have been a lot of straight drop-back passes with Siemian. That’s his strength. And he looks the part of an NFL quarterback.

The Broncos won’t have an unrealistic expectation of their quarterback. Nobody is going to throw for 300 yards a game on this team, unless something goes awry. If they play the way they want to, against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1 a good line for Siemian would be something like 15 of 24 for 151 yards and no interceptions. That’s who they want him to be.

But the Broncos haven’t officially decided on a starter yet, so let’s break down what all three have done to this point:

TREVOR SIEMIAN

What we’ve seen from Siemian and the Broncos offensive plan with him this preseason is what you’ll probably see in the regular season: A lot of quick passes — three- and five-step drops, plant and make a timed throw. They’ve made it easier for Siemian by cutting the field in half for him. He’s been asked to make front-side, half-field reads. He’s a distributor and an orchestrator, and if he’s the starter the Broncos will need the run game to be the foundation of the offense.

Here’s a play I liked from Siemian. In the Broncos’ first preseason game, the call was a skinny post to Cody Latimer, to Siemian’s right. When there’s a safety in the middle of the field on this play, the quarterback is responsible for the safety — you can’t bring him over to the skinny post with your eyes. You have to freeze him where he is with your eyes. Then you trust the receiver will run his route properly, you hit your back foot and deliver. Siemian kept his head in the middle of the field until his third step, which kept the safety where he was. Then he hit Latimer with precise ball placement for 17 yards. This is a nice play.

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An interception last week against the San Francisco 49ers was an example of Siemian’s inexperience. He made a bad read, and it wasn’t a difficult read. The 49ers had quarters coverage (four defensive backs across, playing zone) to Siemian’s right. The way safeties are taught, when the slot receiver goes inside, you have the outside receiver. That’s how 49ers safety Eric Reid played it. He played his normal responsibility. Yet Siemian threw it as if Reid wouldn’t be there.

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Siemian has never thrown an NFL regular-season pass. This isn’t a mistake most veteran quarterbacks would make, but it’s the kind of error the inexperienced Siemian might make on occasion.

MARK SANCHEZ

We have to look at his interception in the Broncos’ first preseason game. I couldn’t tell you what Sanchez saw or was thinking on this play. But it has to be one of two things: He either saw the defender and thought he could beat him with the throw, or he never saw the defender. The underneath defender reacted, tipped the pass and it was intercepted.

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Either way, he made a bad decision, especially for a veteran. Of course, that’s Sanchez’s track record. He is more mobile than Siemian, and he has the experience edge, but he also is inconsistent. He’s still slow processing, and his slow eyes prevent him from playing consistently. He must be a timing and rhythm quarterback with his skill set, but he’s not consistent enough with his decision making and accuracy.

Sanchez has played enough snaps in the NFL that we can fairly say he’s unlikely to change. He won’t become a different quarterback after this many years.

PAXTON LYNCH

Lynch is the most talented thrower of the three Broncos quarterbacks. He has a strong arm and can drive the ball.

This play in the Broncos’ first preseason game was impressive. Lynch snapped his head around quickly after the play-action fake, looked at the post route and then climbed the pocket and delivered a strike on the crossing route for 22 yards. I like that he climbed the pocket while continuing to look downfield.

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He’s not a finished product, of course. Like a lot of tall, college spread quarterbacks, he must get quicker with his drop, set and delivery. He’s too deliberate at this point. He left some throws on the field against the 49ers, which is normal for a rookie. On first-and-10 in the fourth quarter the Broncos called a post-cross combination with an outside vertical. He had the crossing route wide open, but didn’t turn it loose. He left the pocket and ran. I couldn’t tell you why he didn’t make the throw, but I assume the Broncos coaches will work with him on that.

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The second preseason game provided some good film for Lynch to learn from. And nobody should expect him to be ready yet; he’s a rookie who is managing a tough transition.

There is an argument to be made for starting Lynch right away. He’s certainly not ready, but will be the starter eventually and it’s a team that can still win because of its other dimensions. But it’s tough to feel good about putting a rookie out there when you feel like your team can win. It’s easier to start a rookie when you know deep down that your team isn’t set up to compete. The Broncos obviously know they can compete this season.

It’s an odd thing to say — although Jimmy Johnson used to say it a lot — but most NFL games are lost rather than won. And the Broncos don’t want to put a quarterback out there who will lose them games early in the season, especially with an effective running game and a great defense.

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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.