Greg Cosell's NFC championship preview: Aaron Rodgers can still beat good defensive calls

We looked at some of the strategic elements to watch for in the AFC championship game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. Now let’s break down some things to watch in the NFC championship game:

PACKERS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE

The problem with preparing for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, with how well he’s playing, is that a defensive coordinator can make a good play call and Rodgers can beat it anyway.

We saw it in the wild-card round against the New York Giants, and we saw it last week against the Dallas Cowboys too. It has to be disheartening. You watch film, figure out the right call for the right spot, and Rodgers ruins it with a great play. The Atlanta Falcons will have the same problem this week.

Here’s a play from the Packers’ first possession last week. The Cowboys had a late rotation from an initial split safety look to “Cover 3” zone, with three defenders each responsible for a deep third of the field. And Rodgers just beat this disguised coverage with his arm strength. Rodgers went to the hitch route by Randall Cobb and safety Barry Church, the flat defender in “Cover 3,” had a great reaction to the throw. Rodgers just beat Church with velocity.

When people question if arm strength matters for an NFL quarterback, keep that play in mind.

Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli did a good job mixing pressures and coverages as the game progressed. But again, Rodgers can simply beat you with great individual throws. In the third quarter, the Cowboys went to “Cover 2” zone behind a three-man rush. The Cowboys covered the “Y stick” route to Jared Cook well, with linebacker Kyle Wilber sitting in underneath coverage. So Rodgers just made the play improvisational. He ran to his right and made a big-time sideline throw to Cobb as he got hit by Maliek Collins. A very good defensive play call turned into a 25-yard gain for the offense.

This is a prime example of the defense winning within the structure of the play, then Rodgers winning outside the structure.

I want to look at the Packers’ last offensive play, because much has been made of Rodgers improvising it – whatever happened in the huddle, it was not just a random play. It was a designed bootleg left, with the left guard getting out in front of Rodgers. It was designed with Davante Adams, from the “X iso” spot, running vertically to lift cornerback Brandon Carr. Cook, from the inside slot, ran a deep crosser into the void created when Carr went with Adams.

One more thing to watch on Sunday is how the Packers use Cook. One of the key elements of the Packers offense in recent weeks is a trips set (three receivers) to one side, and Cook as the lone receiver to the other (the “X iso”). When that happens, you’re likely to see rookie safety Keanu Neal cover Cook. That’s a fun matchup.

Cook can win in those situations. Here’s a 47-yard catch he had against the Washington Redskins out of “X iso,” a spot you’ll see him line up in plenty on Sunday.

It’s just my opinion, but it seems like Rodgers is a “comfort” quarterback, and he’ll throw to receivers he feels most comfortable with. It seems from watching the film on the Packers that Rodgers has grown quite comfortable with Cook this season.

FALCONS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS DEFENSE

The one matchup that will be huge in this game is Falcons receiver Julio Jones against Packers cornerback LaDarius Gunter. Gunter hadn’t really been a matchup cornerback through the season, but he matched up against Odell Beckham in the Packers’ first playoff game and against Dez Bryant last week.

And when the Packers played the Falcons in Week 8, they primarily aligned Gunter over Jones when Jones lined up outside.

Gunter struggled at times against Bryant last week. The Cowboys picked on that matchup in back-to-back plays in the second quarter and got a touchdown out of it. We broke down these plays in our look at Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, but it’s worth looking at again because Gunter will play such a big role Sunday.

On the first, Bryant beat Gunter on a back-shoulder throw to Prescott’s left.

That’s a challenging play for Gunter, but on the next play Bryant beat Gunter deep for a 40-yard touchdown.

The Cowboys eventually figured out they could win the Bryant-Gunter matchup. The Falcons will test it too.

If the Packers decide to dedicate a double team to Jones, it leaves other options open. Here’s what that looks like – on Atlanta’s second possession last week, the Seahawks went man coverage with Kam Chancellor sitting low focused on Jones running the crosser from the inside slot. That left DeShawn Shead in man coverage with no safety help against Taylor Gabriel. Gabriel ran by Shead on a go route. Tevin Coleman was covered by safety Steven Terrell on the other side, and Ryan decided to go to him on a go route. The pass was incomplete, but you can see that if a defense focuses on Jones, Matt Ryan will have other dangerous options that will draw single coverage.

One more thing to watch, which we saw in the previous play, is how the Falcons detach Coleman from the formation and line him up outside. The Falcons are very good at having normal personnel on the field and then lining the players up in different spots, creating matchup problems.

Here’s an example of that: In Week 5 against the Denver Broncos, the Falcons used normal personnel so the Broncos had to keep their base defense on the field. Then they would get Coleman matched up against a linebacker. On this play, Coleman went in motion from the backfield to the inside slot and linebacker Brandon Marshall matched on Coleman. It was a two verticals route concept with Mohamed Sanu and Coleman ran by Marshall for a 31-yard touchdown.

The Packers will have to make decisions on how to match up if and when that happens. Safety Morgan Burnett’s injury (he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday) could complicate things if he can’t play or is limited in the game. He’s their down-in-the-box dime safety, so it could impact how much dime the Packers want to play. That also could affect who the Packers have to match up with Atlanta’s running backs in the pass game.

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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.