Greg Cosell's AFC championship preview: How can Steelers put heat on Tom Brady?

We’re down to four teams left in the playoffs, and it’s time to look at the possible matchups and strategic points to watch in each of the conference championship games.

Let’s look at the AFC championship game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots (for the breakdown of the NFC championship between the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons, click here):

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. STEELERS DEFENSE

You’ll hear people talk about concepts in football like, “You have to get pressure on the quarterback.” While that’s obviously true, the problem is it’s not easy to do.

Here’s a play from last week’s Houston Texans-New England Patriots playoff game. The Texans called a play that got a rusher clean to Tom Brady on third-and-10. Linebacker Brian Cushing looped behind Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus on a long stunt and got to the pocket unblocked. It’s hard in the NFL to get a free rush like that. But what happened? Julian Edelman presented his route quickly and Brady got rid of the ball for 26 yards, right before Cushing hit him.

The Pittsburgh Steelers know they need to get pressure on Brady this week. When Brady has had relatively quiet games the last calendar year – at the Denver Broncos in last season’s AFC championship game, at Denver this regular season, and against Houston last week – those defenses got pressure on him. When Brady is pressured, he isn’t as effective. That’s the truth for all quarterbacks.

The question for the Steelers is how to accomplish it. Especially against Brady, who gets rid of the ball fast, especially since the Patriots call a lot of three- and five-step drops for him.

The Texans got pressure last week on a few occasions, and it’s worth looking back at how they did it. The Texans showed multiple personnel looks out of all their fronts last week, and had success out of their staple five-across front with two three-techniques (a lineman aligned on the outside shoulder of the guard). They’d do this with Clowney (90) standing up in the three technique and Mercilus (59) head up on the center in a two-point stance. And on this play, with a three-man rush, Mercilus immediately beat center David Andrews. That forced Brady to move. Cushing (56), who was a free defender, ran down Brady for the sack.

Here’s another sack, with Mercilus over Andrews in a two-point stance. He beat Andrews quickly again with a spin move and this time he got the sack.

A play doesn’t need to result in a sack to be successful, of course. Here’s a successful stunt, which got Cushing free to Brady. That forced Brady out of the pocket and into an incompletion on third-and-14.

I typically disagree when people say there’s a “blueprint” on how to beat a team. Here’s why, for this game: The Steelers can and will look at last week’s tape for clues, but they do not have a defender like Mercilus, who is a very good pass rusher. The Steelers can’t replicate what Houston did.

However, the Steelers can do things within their scheme to get the rush to Brady. Some of those things even happen in the secondary. Pittsburgh has been effective with trap concepts in its coverage, and if it can create just a short beat where Brady doesn’t see it exactly the way he thought he’d see it and holds the ball, maybe that helps the rush.

Here’s something you might see the Steelers do. Brady sets the protection at the line for the Patriots – you’ll see him going to the line and calling out the middle linebacker. The Steelers might try to move after Brady sets the protection. They did it against the New York Giants in Week 13, and it resulted in a sack. James Harrison lined up almost in an in-the-box safety alignment, then moved outside after Eli Manning set the protection. Harrison got a favorable matchup against a running back and beat him for a sack.

There are tactical concepts the Steelers will attempt. They have moved their linebackers around this season, and will do so against New England too. That’s the chess match to watch. How will the Steelers try to get pressure on Brady, and how will New England counter that if it works?

STEELERS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

Late in the season, Pittsburgh evolved into Le’Veon Bell’s offense. He has been incredibly effective, and you see that most clearly when you look at his production on first down.

Here are Bell’s first-down numbers in the past five weeks:
At Buffalo: 20 carries, 142 yards
At Cincinnati: 12-68
Vs. Baltimore 11-77
Vs. Miami: 15-80
At Kansas City: 16-100

That’s 74 first-down carries for 467 yards, a 6.3-yard average. When a running back is averaging more than 6 yards on first down, it helps the whole offense. And it sets up a fascinating matchup against the Patriots.

The Patriots’ “big nickel” defense is their staple, especially against “12” personnel with one back and two tight ends – a personnel grouping the Steelers use a lot. The Patriots will use Patrick Chung as the hybrid safety/linebacker in the box. The Steelers are effective running against dime and nickel. Here’s a play from last week, when Bell gained 38 yards on first down against the Chiefs’ dime look. It’s an inside zone concept with great blocks from right guard David DeCastro working up to linebacker Ramik Wilson and wide receiver Cobi Hamlton (83) blocking filling safety Eric Berry.

First down will be very important for the Steelers and Patriots. We know the Steelers will give Bell the ball often on first down. Can the Patriots stop it with their preferred “big nickel” defense?

Another matchup that will be fun to watch is receiver Antonio Brown against cornerback Malcolm Butler. Patriots coach Bill Belichick doesn’t always match up Butler with the opponent’s best receiver. He didn’t last week against Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins. But he’ll match up Butler against certain types of receivers, and in each of the past two games the Patriots have shadowed Brown with Butler. Who knows what will happen on Sunday, because the Patriots are unpredictable, but history shows us that Butler will shadow Brown.

Butler has done well in the matchup, but it’s tough to cover Brown. Here’s a 51-yard catch from Brown on a deep crosser. Brown kind of ran away from him. He can do that, even to very good corners.

While we know that the Steelers want to lean on Bell on first down, the Brown vs. Butler matchup will be huge as well. There are a lot of interesting strategic elements to keep an eye on in the AFC championship game.

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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.