Gareth Bale-led Wales, Northern Ireland among surprises at Euro 2016 qualifying midpoint

A quick glance at the Euro 2016 qualification round reveals a number of unheralded teams striding confidently past the halfway point as other more high-profile sides struggle in the haze of a post-World Cup hangover.

Normally, such a pattern is accompanied by a caveat: can the usual underachievers manage to stay the course or will they inevitably fall away when it matters most? But with an expanded tournament next year (24 teams instead of the age-old 16), it means more qualification berths are available (the top two in each group and the best third-place team qualify automatically) and with so much of the heavy lifting already accomplished, the lesser lights are tentatively looking back at the chasing pack and daring to dream of what happens next.

Last weekend, Wales took in an ominous-looking assignment away to Group B leaders Israel only for Gareth Bale to single-handedly wreak havoc on the hosts and push his country - the perennial strugglers - ever closer to the (other) Promised Land. The 3-0 victory ensured the Welsh maintained their unbeaten run and claimed top spot.

It was all quite out of character. Chris Coleman's side had 18 attempts on goal, more possession and more completed passes than their opponents. They bossed the game from start to finish, helped when Israel were reduced to 10 men early in the second half. But, crucially, like other teams that have surprised so far, they have a focal point.

For Bale, the game proved the perfect distraction. At the centre of vitriolic abuse in Madrid ever since his club's 2-1 derby defeat to bitter-rivals Barcelona, he carved Israel apart, scoring twice and setting up Aaron Ramsey's opener. But the leading man has a steady supporting cast, too – his dynamic with Ramsey is eye-catching and the Arsenal midfielder is allowed the licence to get forward and make those incisive runs that we saw so much of in the Premier League last term. Patrolling the middle is Liverpool's unsung hero this term, Joe Allen, while at the back, the experience and combative nature of West Ham's James Collins is neatly complemented by the more polished presence of Ashley Williams.

Wales haven't qualified for a major tournament since 1958 but there has been some steady progress in the last few years. Despite finishing second-from-bottom in qualifying for last summer's World Cup, there were encouraging signs: home and away wins over Scotland and a 1-1 draw with eventual-tournament quarter-finalists Belgium. It has taken time, there have been some traumatic setbacks but with three of their last five fixtures at home, qualification is in their hands.

It's a similar story in Northern Ireland. Constantly overshadowed by the litany of tournament appearances by their southern counterparts in the last quarter of a century, this campaign has been markedly different from the outset.

In their Group F opener, they trailed 1-0 to Hungary in Budapest with 10 minutes remaining and looked set for another depressing group-stage experience. But inspiration was found in a most unlikely of places.

Best known for his stint at Glasgow Rangers, Kyle Lafferty had been struggling for form for quite a while. He did well during his solitary season with Palermo in Italy's second division but was banished because of his off-field misdemeanours. The club's owner, Maurizio Zamparini, referred to Lafferty as an “out-of-control womanizer, someone who disappears for a week and goes on the hunt for women in Milan”. Last summer, he moved to Norwich but failed to make an impact. Still, when Northern Ireland badly needed a spark in their first Euro 2016 qualifier, he, almost inexplicably, provided it.

Lafferty created the equalizer for Niall McGinn and then scored an 88th-minute winner to give Northern Ireland their first away win in four years. From there, it's been a magnificent run of games – they've added three more victories and only an away defeat to group leaders Romania has stained an otherwise imperious campaign.

Lafferty scored twice against Finland on Sunday to take his personal tally to five – more goals in these qualifiers than the likes of Wayne Rooney and Robert Lewandowski.

With the exception of Rooney's England, the only other team that has racked up maximum points so far is Slovakia. Quietly and efficiently, the side – made up of a handful of players who helped the country reach the knockout stages of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa – have collected five straight wins in Group C, including an impressive 2-1 triumph over Spain. They've navigated potentially tricky away assignments with minimum fuss and can look forward to three of their remaining five fixtures being on home soil.

If it's been refreshing to see the relentless underdogs set the pace during these qualifiers, it's been equally fascinating to watch the traditionally-successful sides squirm. In Group A, it was supposed to be the perfect love story as Guus Hiddink returned to take charge of the Netherlands – a team he memorably coached to the World Cup semifinals in 1998.

With the feel-good factor still raging owing to their splendid outing in Brazil last summer, confidence was high but quickly extinguished after an opening-day loss against the Czech Republic last September. The following month, Hiddink's team lost again to Iceland and before a home qualifier with Latvia, the veteran manager said he'd resign if the Dutch were defeated. There followed a 6-0 demolition with the team's big-name players – Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben on the scoresheet.

But, missing his stars last weekend, Hiddink was put through another emotional roller-coaster, his blushes (and probably his job) spared by Klass-Jan Huntelaar's fortunate injury-time equalizer against Turkey. With five games left, the Netherlands are five points from automatic qualification and can't afford any more errors. Even Hiddink seems unsure of how he can rescue the team from the bowels of the abyss.

Afterwards, in an ill-fated attempt to talk up his side's chances of making it to France next year, he said: “Of course we can still qualify for the European Championship. I am just not yet sure how.”

The halfway point: an encouraging, motivational sign for some, an unwanted reminder of the arduous road ahead for others.