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Forde Minutes: Will these five 'contenders' deliver in March?

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball (tickets to the SMU-Louisville Asterisk Invitational sold separately):

CAN WE TRUST YOU?

The major conference tournaments tip off in a month, so it’s time for armchair bracketologists to start eyeballing potential March breakthrough teams and busts. As it stands right now, a lot of teams that figure to be highly seeded will be trying to overcome sketchy March track records. The Minutes applies the Trust Meter to five of them:

Villanova (1). On Monday the Wildcats moved up to No. 1 in the AP and USA Today polls for the first time in school history. They’re also No. 1 in the RPI, Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and with Jeff Sagarin, too. That’s quite a consensus around another excellent ensemble cast orchestrated by Jay Wright.

Current Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 1.

The problem: This also is a program that has flamed out rather spectacularly in its past five NCAA tournament appearances. ‘Nova is 3-5 in those tourneys with zero Sweet 16 appearances, despite getting a No. 1 seed last year and No. 2 seeds in 2014 and 2010. Villanova was No. 5 in the pre-tourney Pomeroy ratings last year and No. 6 the year before, then was busted out by North Carolina State in ’15 and eventual national champion Connecticut in ‘14. The selection committee is tasked with trying to forget past performance and seed based on this year’s results, but that could be difficult with Villanova’s glaring recent pratfalls.

Will Jay Wright and the Wildcats finally make noise again in March? (AP)
Will Jay Wright and the Wildcats finally make noise again in March? (AP)

Coach’s Final Four experience: One, in 2009.

Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Baghdad Bob.

Maryland (2). Villanova got 11 first-place votes in the USA Today Top 25, but so did the Terrapins, who are No. 2 in both polls. After going a long time without big victories, Maryland’s résumé is getting stronger by the week: competitive road losses to North Carolina, Michigan and Michigan State don’t hurt; there are quality wins in recent weeks over Iowa and Purdue; and earlier road/neutral victories over UConn and Wisconsin are gaining currency. Current Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 3.

The problem: Maryland hasn’t made the NCAA Sweet 16 since 2003, despite being seeded to do so four times (last year, 2010, ‘07 and ’04). Turgeon hasn’t made the Sweet 16 in his last five NCAA trips, one at Maryland and four at Texas A&M. Last time he got that far: 2006, when he was at Wichita State.

Coach’s Final Four experience: none.

Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Oil change technician who always says you need a new air filter.

Iowa (3). The Hawkeyes have been one of the biggest success stories of the season. The résumé is very solid. At 19-4, they have no bad losses (neutral site to Dayton and Notre Dame, road to Iowa State and Maryland), swept Michigan State and Purdue, and beat Wichita State on a neutral floor. Fran McCaffrey is playing a lot of guys as usual, but has a potent 1-2 scoring punch in Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok.

Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 1.

The problem: Iowa and postseason basketball have not gotten along well in recent times. Under McCaffrey the Hawkeyes are 2-5 in the Big Ten tourney and 1-2 in the NCAAs. Iowa hasn’t won more than a single game in the Big Ten tourney in a decade and hasn’t made an NCAA Sweet 16 since 1999.

Coach’s Final Four experience: none.

Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Used car salesman.

Virginia (4). A bunch of very good wins (Villanova, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville) cancel out a handful of pretty bad losses (George Washington, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech). The Cavaliers have won six straight games after a 2-3 start in the ACC, and Tony Bennett continues to mercilessly tempo opponents into submission.

Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 2.

The problem: Virginia was a No. 1 seed in 2014 and lost in the Sweet 16. It was a No. 2 seed last year and lost in the second round. Cavaliers haven’t been past the Sweet 16 since 1995 and haven’t been to the Final Four since 1984.

Coach’s Final Four experience: none.

Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Salesman in charge of explaining cell phone service plan.

Oklahoma (5). First significant hiccup of the season for the Sooners came Saturday, and the 11-point loss to Kansas State knocked them off the top of the polls. But they bounced right back Monday with a last-second win over surging Texas and there are plenty of other credits on the Oklahoma balance sheet: road/neutral wins over Villanova, Baylor, LSU and Creighton; home wins over Iowa State, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Lon Kruger’s team is one of the most entertaining in the country – they shoot it very well, pass it adeptly and play at a fast pace.

Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 1.

The problem: Under Kruger, Oklahoma is 1-4 in the Big 12 tournament and 2-3 in the NCAAs. Kruger hasn’t taken a team past the Sweet 16 in 22 years.

Coach’s Final Four experience: One, in 1994, while at Florida.

Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Friend who says, “Call you later” and never does.

SHAKING UP THE ESTABLISHED ORDER

Have you seen the conference standings? There are a lot of unfamiliar names in high places. The Minutes breaks down what could be a remaking of the hierarchy of Power 5 leagues:

The Ducks have more than just flashy uniforms these days. (Getty)
The Ducks have more than just flashy uniforms these days. (Getty)

Oregon (6). Current spot in the Pac-12 standings: First, at 9-2, with a 1 ½-game lead over USC. Ducks’ last Pac-12 title: 2002. Oregon figured to have graduate transfer Dylan Ennis starting at point guard, but he suffered a foot injury after playing just two games. Jumping into a primary ball-handling role has been 6-7 sophomore Dillon Brooks, who leads the team in scoring and assists and might be the Pac-12 Player of the Year at this point. Ducks still have four road games left, trips to the Bay Area and Los Angeles, but they’ve been on a dominant run the last three weeks.

Louisville (7). Last ACC title: never. The Cardinals slid out of a first-place tie Monday night in a hard-fought loss at Duke, but at 8-3 remain right in the race. The problem is a remaining schedule that includes five more games against teams in the Pomeroy top 40, three of them on the road. However, if any ACC team should have maximum motivation down the regular-season stretch, it’s the one that isn’t going anywhere when said stretch is over.

Iowa. Last Big Ten title: 1979. If the Hawkeyes can get a victory at Indiana on Thursday, they’ll have a good shot at winning the conference. The remaining schedule after visiting Bloomington: Minnesota, Wisconsin and Indiana at home; Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan away. If the Hawkeyes falter, the league might be won by second-place Maryland. The Terrapins’ last Big Ten title: never.

West Virginia (8). Last Big 12 title: never. The Mountaineers had a great week, beating Iowa State in Ames and Baylor in Morgantown to take the lead in the league. But the rest of the schedule is rough: at Kansas Tuesday, at Texas the following Tuesday, home against Oklahoma and Iowa State, at Baylor March 5. The league could still end up back in Kansas’ control – as usual – when all is said and done.

LSU (9). Last SEC title: 2009. There was justifiable lamentation about the Tigers’ 7-5 start to the season, but an 8-2 conference mark has at least pushed them into the bubble discussion and into the lead in the uninspiring SEC. Plenty of lose-able games remain, though, starting Wednesday at South Carolina and then home Saturday against Texas A&M (10) – which, if LSU stumbles, could win its first-ever SEC title.

WHO CAN CARRY A TEAM IN MARCH?

Sometimes, one red-hot player can take a team a long way in tournament play. The Minutes lists a few explosive, dominant types to keep an eye on:

Buddy Hield (11), Oklahoma. If you saw the Buddy Show Monday night, you know: he cannot be stopped. Hield’s 3-pointer with 1.3 seconds left beat a valiant and improving Texas team in Norman, the exclamation point on a 27-point night – 21 of those coming in the second half. He is the current king of clutch, the sultan of streak shooting, the most relentless worker on the offensive end – and the nation’s leading scorer on top of it all. If Kruger can keep him fresh enough for tournament time, he could take Oklahoma to Houston. At least.

Denzel Valentine (12), Michigan State. The Spartans are riding Valentine for everything he’s worth – and he’s worth a lot. Namely, 18.6 points per game, 7.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists. Even with some occasional big shooting nights from sidekick Bryn Forbes, the Michigan State offense revolves around Valentine. In non-blowouts in Big Ten play, he’s averaging 38 minutes. In terms of all-around facilitation of the offense, even Hield has as much on his shoulders as Valentine does.

Jamal Murray (13), Kentucky. He’s a volume shooter with a ton of confidence and plenty of green light from John Calipari, who needs his backcourt to carry a team that is light on frontcourt production. When Murray is rolling, he can score with anyone – like last Saturday, when he torched Florida for 35 points. He also dropped 33 on Ohio State in a losing cause earlier in the season, going off after halftime. He can get carried away, take bad shots and force the action – against Louisville he was 3-of-14 with seven turnovers – but he’s also capable of winning an NCAA game or two by himself if the shots are falling.

Fred VanVleet (14) and Ron Baker (15), Wichita State. They’re the most veteran backcourt in college basketball: Van Vleet has played in 127 games, Baker 109 – 18 of them in postseason tournament action. They were key parts of the Shockers’ Final Four run in 2013, the undefeated regular season in ’14, and the Sweet 16 team of a year ago. Now they’re combining for 27 points, eight rebounds and nine assists for a Wichita State team that could make another March run. Good luck trying to eliminate these guys.

Grayson Allen (16), Duke. Moved way up in the Irritating Dukie Hierarchy Monday night by deliberately tripping Louisville’s Raymond Spalding and being called for a flagrant foul. Allen plays with a chip on the shoulder, but he’s more than talented enough to back it up. He is leading the Blue Devils in scoring (20.9 ppg) and assists (3.7), with the skill to kill from the 3-point line and the athleticism to fracture defenses on the drive. Right now, Duke will have to play its way out of a mediocre NCAA seed – but Allen just might be able to lead them deep in the tournament anyway.

Will Ben Simmons and LSU make the NCAA tournament? (Getty)
Will Ben Simmons and LSU make the NCAA tournament? (Getty)

And then there is Ben Simmons (17), LSU. The question is not whether the likely 2016 No. 1 pick could take over – it’s whether he would. Or would he defer and watch? Or would coach Johnny Jones fail to force the game to come to Simmons? One concerning stat: Simmons is taking a lower percentage of LSU’s shots vs. “Tier A and B” opponents, to use Pomeroy’s methodology, than teammates Craig Victor and Tim Quarterman – neither of whom are projected lottery picks. That needs to change.

RUNNING THE CONFERENCE TABLE

Only four teams still have a chance of winning their conference title undefeated. The Minutes looks at who they are, and appraises their chances.

Stony Brook (18). The record: 11-0 in the America East. After dispatching Hartford Monday, next up is Maryland-Baltimore County (6-19, 2-8). But after that it gets difficult, with three of the Seawolves’ closing four games against teams with winning records – New Hampshire, Vermont and Albany on the road Feb. 17. Minutes projection: 15-1.

Yale (19). The record: 6-0 in the Ivy League. Over the course of five games, forward Brandon Sherrod did something remarkable – he made an NCAA-record 30 straight field-goal attempts, spanning from Jan. 16 to Feb. 5. Eventually he had to miss, and did. And eventually Yale will have to lose. The next four games are on the road, including a visit to primary Ivy rival Princeton. Minutes projection: 11-3.

San Diego State (20). The record: 11-0 in the Mountain West. The Aztecs have a great record but plenty of close calls – they’ve won six MWC games by three points or less or in overtime. That includes last week’s narrow escapes at home over Colorado State and New Mexico – the latter steeped in controversy. The league’s best defensive team is offensively challenged, and that means there will be blood on the record. Minutes projection: 16-2.

Stephen F. Austin (21). The record: 10-0 in the Southland Conference. Guard Thomas Walkup took his already-good game up another level last week, averaging 32.5 points and 11 rebounds in two more victories for the Lumberjacks. They’ve already aced their toughest road game – a five-point win at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi – and may not be challenged again until a Feb. 29 visit to Incarnate Word. Closing with three straight on the road is tough, but The Minutes thinks SFA will prevail. Minutes projection: 18-0.

TWO TICKETS TO DAYTON HAVE BEEN PUNCHED ... FOR SOMEONE

Due to NCAA rules issues, two sure-fire tournament teams are out – one by NCAA decree, the other by its own hand. SMU (22) was nuked before the season started, and Louisville sidelined itself Friday in a move nobody saw coming. Now the question is, which two teams will benefit from their absence by squeaking into the field of 68? The Minutes has two early nominees:

Syracuse (23). Would be thematically consistent, since the Orange were kept out of last year’s tourney due to NCAA violations. Syracuse has played itself back into contention for a bid after an 0-4 ACC start and a horrid non-conference loss to St. John’s. It is now 6-5 in the league, with wins at Duke and over Notre Dame. ‘Cuse can help its cause much more by holding serve the rest of the way at the Carrier Dome and winning at least one of three road games at Louisville, North Carolina and Florida State.

Seton Hall (24). Louisville’s self-imposed ban might be a boon for one of Rick Pitino’s former assistants, Kevin Willard, whose dad, Ralph, is on the current Louisville staff. (In his sixth year at Seton Hall and still looking for an NCAA bid, the younger Willard could use any and all breaks.) The Pirates have played themselves into the conversation in recent weeks, beating Providence and Creighton on the road and Georgetown at home – and they have a non-conference ace in the hole from beating Wichita State in December. Going 4-3 the rest of the way would put Seton Hall in good position going into the Big East tournament.

READER POLL

The Minutes wants to know: which has been the better off-court, in-game entertainment this season?

Monmouth bench mob (25). Wonderfully fun element of a very good (19-5) team. The highlight moment was re-enacting Michelangelo’s masterpiece Sistine Chapel painting during one early-season game. This team needs to be in the NCAA tournament.

Arizona State Curtain of Distraction starring Michael Phelps (26). ASU’s free-throw tomfoolery has become a cult-classic element of Pac-12 ball, but the school added true star power last month when it got Olympic GOAT Michael Phelps to guest star behind the curtain. When his Speedo cameo resulted in two missed Oregon State free throws, the stunt quickly became the stuff of legend.

Tweet The Minutes your choice at @yahooforde, or send an email: fordesports@yahoo.com. Results to come next week.

A FEW MINUTES WITH ... BOBBY HURLEY

The Minutes caught up with Arizona State Sun Devils coach and former NBA player and Duke star Bobby Hurley (27) last month. After an overachieving start with a modestly talented roster, Pac-12 play has been a challenge – the Devils are 13-11 overall, 3-8 in the league, in Hurley’s first year after he had success at Buffalo. Some outtakes from a conversation with one of the most decorated college players of the past 25 years:

Q: What was the appeal to take this job?

A: I know it’s a great league and I thought my style of coaching would fit into a league like this. I look at myself as someone who likes to develop players and to be an innovator in some ways on offense, and this has always been an offensive league. And my background as a blue-collar player, defensively, would carry over here as well.

Q: Athletic director Ray Anderson (28) is all-in on basketball?

A: He’s very invested. We were both in agreement that we think it could be special here. We’ve got a lot of work to do here, but he is committed to it.

Q: You took a little longer to get into the family business (Hurley’s dad, Bob, is a legendary high school coach in New Jersey and younger brother Danny is in his sixth year as a college head coach). Was there a part of you that didn’t want to coach?

A: I wanted to be around my kids a lot, and to raise my kids and see them grow up and be a big part of their lives. I know the investment we make to coach, the amount of time we put into it. And then it was like waiting for the right opportunity. Every time the tournament came around, I felt empty – I wanted to be a part of that. I always thought, “Is this going to be the year?” And it never developed. Then my brother had a really good opportunity for me as an assistant and I wanted to be with someone that I trust.

Q: How are you like your dad and brother as a coach, and how are you different?

Bobby Hurley and the Sun Devils are currently sitting in 11th place in the Pac-12. (AP)
Bobby Hurley and the Sun Devils are currently sitting in 11th place in the Pac-12. (AP)

A: I’ve maybe taken my on-court coaching style from my brother, and then just watching my dad – we coach with fire, with passion. I’ll fight for my team, and then on the practice court we ask our players to work hard and we demand that. We’re going to call guys out and have accountability, but we do it in a way that’s constructive for our players and they like playing for us. I’m not as vocally demanding in some ways as my dad.

Q: Yeah, I didn’t hear you yell once at practice.

A: I will. You didn’t hear me earlier this week, when we were coming off a three-game losing streak. The closer we get to a game, you want to try and build guys up more and get them ready to play. The one thing I did learn from Mike Krzyzewski (29) more than anything was the way he was able to reach his players. Guys loved playing for him. There was a trust there.

Q: Have you picked K’s brain since you’ve been coaching?

A: He’s helped me throughout. My brother is my main source – we’re on the phone every day. I’ve asked Coach some things – like last year, leading into our conference tournament, how does he prepare guys for that? Because it didn’t work our first year at Buffalo, we lost our first game, and you don’t get second chances at that level. (Buffalo won the MAC tournament last year.)

Q: How much were you involved with basketball during those years between playing and coaching?

A: I was involved – I coached my son’s PAL team when he was 5, so I’ve been at all levels (laughs). The biggest thing at that level is the snack. You have to get the right snack to have them perform at a high level.

Q: How does the family (Hurley is married with three children) like being out West?

A: My wife loves it. My oldest daughter is going to Duke, she’s a sophomore, and my middle daughter was planning on going to Duke, but now it looks like she’s going to stay home and go to ASU. She really likes the area. We all do. And my son, he’s here at practice a lot. He sits on the bench.

Q: Does he have the Hurley fire?

A: I don’t know if I can push all the buttons you need to push. My dad had to go to some deep places with me to push myself the way I did. Some of it will have to depend on him – when I see how much he wants it, that will tell me how hard to push. But he loves the game, and he knows it.

CONFERENCE ASSESSMENT: THE PAC-12

Likely NCAA tournament teams: There could be as many as seven from the league, which would be a Pac-12 record. Yet even if they populate the 10.3 percent of the bracket, there may not be a lot of staying power.

This is a deep league without an abundance of excellence. Old standby Arizona (30) may just now be getting it together, after the return of freshman Allonzo Trier from injury, a productive week from Ryan Anderson and a verbal undressing from coach Sean Miller. Since Miller ripped his team, the Wildcats are 3-0. Five of the last seven are at home, so chances are good for a strong finish.

Arizona coach Sean Miller (L) is starting to take his players to task and it appears to be working. (AP)
Arizona coach Sean Miller (L) is starting to take his players to task and it appears to be working. (AP)

Arizona’s early struggles helped open the door for new blood at the top. Oregon, as mentioned above, is looking for its first league title since 2002. The Ducks have been the class of the Pac-12 so far, turning Matthew Knight Arena into a swoosh-streaked snake pit (20 straight home wins).

Behind them are USC (31) and Washington (32) in second and tied for third, respectively. Last year they were 11th and 12th in the league. The improvement in both has been remarkable – especially the Trojans, who haven’t had a winning league record or made the NCAAs since 2011.

Utah (33), Colorado (34) and California (35) are on the bubble. The Utes and Buffaloes are 17-7 overall, 6-5 in the league. The Golden Bears are 15-8, 5-5. For all three, fortunes tend to rise and fall depending on whether the week calls for two games at home or two on the road. Their NCAA status likely will go down to the wire.

Speaking of home/road mood swings: Oregon State is now 12-3 in Pac-12 play at home in two seasons under Wayne Tinkle, 1-12 on the road.

UCLA, which has played its way out of the tournament at the moment, has a huge weekend in Arizona. The Bruins need at least one win, and really could use two to get back into the bubble mix.

Possible Top 16 seeds: Oregon and Arizona. But neither is assured at this point.

Coaches who need to have some urgency: Almost nobody, since the conference has undergone major turnover in the last couple of years. Lorenzo Romar has been the source of speculation for years, but if the Huskies make the tournament for the first time since 2011, that should keep him employed in Seattle – unless he’s looking to jump. The other long-tenured coach without a lot to show for it is Stanford’s Johnny Dawkins, whose team has struggled to an 11-10, 4-6 record. But Dawkins’ run to the Sweet 16 in 2014 and NIT title last year should provide him the latitude for a down year with a young team.

UNDER-THE-RADAR LOVE

Pascal Siakam (36), New Mexico State. The 6-foot-9, 230-pound sophomore forward from Cameroon is dominating the Western Athletic Conference, averaging 22.2 points, 12 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Siakam has racked up 21 double-doubles on the season, highlighted by a Herculean 24 points, 23 rebounds and five blocks against rival UTEP on Dec. 2. (NMSU also beat the Miners Dec. 19, sweeping the annual home-and-home border series for the second time in the last three years.) Primarily a paint banger, Siakam even stepped outside and made his second career 3-pointer Saturday in a victory over Utah Valley that improved the Aggies to 17-8 overall, 8-1 in the WAC.

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR

Bob Huggins' Mountaineers have won their last two games against Iowa State and Baylor. (AP)
Bob Huggins' Mountaineers have won their last two games against Iowa State and Baylor. (AP)

Bob Huggins (37), West Virginia. You don’t hear about Huggins signing top-20 recruiting classes, but you did see his Mountaineers in the 2015 Sweet 16 and currently in the AP and USA Today Top 10. Huggins is still coaching fearless, combative defense and still getting players to compete like their hair is on fire. It’s a beautiful thing, even if Huggs isn’t. (At least his sideline attire and scowl aren’t.)

COACH WHO NEEDS TO TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Scott Drew (38), Baylor. Drew loves his zone defenses of varying shapes, which is fine if your team can play them. But the Bears have been getting scorched from the perimeter for the past six games. Opponents in that stretch have made 48 of 102 3-point shots – and while it’s one thing to be scorched by the marksmen from Oklahoma (16 of 28), it’s something altogether different when Kansas State (a 29-percent team from beyond the arc) hits half its attempts against you. Baylor has lost half of those games, including two in a row, to fall into a tie for fifth place in the Big 12.

BUZZER BEATER

In honor of Villanova’s ascension to No. 1 in the rankings, The Minutes suggests a visit to Philadelphia’s Pub and Kitchen (39), in Center City. Just about everything on the menu is good, but try the skirt steak with a Troegs Brewery Solid Sender Pale Ale (40), from Hershey, Pa., and thank The Minutes later.

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