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For Raheem Sterling, and Liverpool, it's all about business

Chelsea's Cesc Fabregas in action with Liverpool's Raheem Sterling Action Images via Reuters / Carl Recine Livepic (Reuters)

When the Raheem Sterling news broke this week, I thought about baseball and a conversation I had with Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane last year. We chatted about sports organizations spending money and the difficulties for some in having to lavish huge amounts on individuals, especially when the franchise has a careful, well-disciplined approach to spending.

Said Beane: “There are some good baseball decisions that cost a lot of money. The bigger the business, the bigger the club, the more leeway you have in that area. That being said, how much somebody spends is relative to the player. You can spend what's perceived as being a lot of money on a player but their actual value could be twice what you spend. If someone perceives £20m ($38 million) as being a significant cost to a soccer club, it's possible their own internal valuations and analysis may be that the player is worth £40m ($77 million). As an example, if Michael Jordan with the Chicago Bulls, was being paid ($38 million), I can absolutely assure you he was worth at least three times that, despite the fact it was a lot of money.”

It's a point that's always stayed with me: value and the interpretation of it. Sterling's story has dominated the back pages of the UK media for quite a while and, for the most part, the general consensus is that a 20-year-old, who hasn't achieved much in his career, should simply shut up, take what he's offered and be thankful for it. Yet, Sterling's decision to play hardball is an issue for his employers. Liverpool have to make the decision that best suits them and, despite popular opinion, it's a complex and difficult process.

On the table is an offer of $192,000 per week – a $125,000 increase on what he currently earns. Sterling has rejected it. Last month he went rogue, gave an interview to the BBC without informing his club, spoke openly about his contractual situation and tried to come across as earnest and honest, claiming “it's not about the money at all”. The move backfired spectacularly. He was seen as a mercenary in his disrespect for Liverpool, the team that's made him a star since signing him from London side Queens Park Rangers when he was 15. Now, he had the arrogance to sit in front of TV cameras and discuss a private matter between him and the people who pay his wages. But lost in the haze of his apparent audacity was an interesting line that pointed to a level of self-awareness that belied his age:

"I just want to take the time to think about what I've achieved in my career so far, where I need to go and what I need to do to get better as a player."

Sterling, clearly with the help of his management, has been analyzing his own value. With Liverpool having lost Luis Suarez to Barcelona last summer, with club icon Steven Gerrard stepping away from Anfield and moving to Major League Soccer side LA Galaxy and with Daniel Sturridge perpetually injured, who's the high-profile star on Merseyside these days? Where is the sprinkling of stardust?

Football - Liverpool v Newcastle United - Barclays Premier League - Anfield - 13/4/15Liverpool's Raheem Sterling shakes hands with manager Brendan Rodgers after being substitutedAction Images via Reuters / Lee SmithLivepic
Football - Liverpool v Newcastle United - Barclays Premier League - Anfield - 13/4/15Liverpool's Raheem Sterling shakes hands with manager Brendan Rodgers after being substitutedAction Images via Reuters / Lee SmithLivepic

Well, it's Sterling. Like it or not, he's English, young, creative, talented and marketable.

The club is in transition and continually losing key players attracts the wrong kind of attention. Think Arsenal a number of years ago when Gael Clichy, Samir Nasri, Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie all left in quick succession. It's a testament to Arsene Wenger's skills as manager to have kept the club competitive in spite of the mass exodus of top-tier personnel. But that is a key element of talent management – acknowledging players will eventually leave but having the ability to prepare for their exit. Last summer, Liverpool failed to do that and are still counting the cost.

And when a club is in a fragile state, the player's value becomes something intangible. Wayne Rooney had a difficult and strained relationship in the latter years of Sir Alex Ferguson's tenure at Manchester United and wanted to leave the club twice. The first time, in 2010, United went on the offensive and Ferguson publicly shamed Rooney for threatening to leave. Still, 48 hours later, Rooney had agreed to a five-year contract and a sizable salary increase. Why? United needed him.

The year before, Cristiano Ronaldo had moved to Real Madrid and Carlos Tevez had joined Manchester City. By May 2010, Chelsea were league champions. United were being usurped and were losing high-profile players. There was no way Ferguson would allow Rooney go in those circumstances. So, like Beane's comment, Rooney's actual value in that situation was worth far more than what United paid him.

Similarly, years later, after another blow-up with Ferguson, Rooney asked for a transfer again. He picked his moment well. Ferguson was set to leave – a seismic moment for the club. So, United dug in their heels and refused to sell, despite Chelsea tabling two bids and despite Rooney bullying the club for the second time in less than three years. Once again though, it was the smart move. The prospect of losing him meant more than anything else.

So, back to Sterling. What's the smart move for Liverpool and their American owners Fenway Sports Group (FSG)? What's his value to them right now? Is it a delicate period for the organization? Do they need Sterling to stay?

Should the club decide to sell, it means that in the space of 12 months – Suarez and Sterling – two crucial elements in Liverpool's near-title run in 2014 will be gone. It's growing increasingly likely that the third element – Sturridge, whose fitness issues are a huge concern – could leave as well.

What is the club thinking right now? Damien Comolli was Liverpool's director of football between 2010 and 2012.

“With two years left on his contract, Raheem Sterling is in a position of power now. If it's about money, then someone will always pay more than Liverpool both in the Premier League and abroad. So, in a battle about money, Liverpool are always going to lose. If it's not about the money then, and I've seen it many times before, the only person that can convince the player to stay is the manager. If a player has got a very close bond with the manager then sometimes, especially when players are young, they'll disregard the financial side because they believe in the manager and believe the club is the right place to be, at least for another year or two. If the player doesn't have this close relationship and if he believes staying at the club means he won't improve as a player and that the team won't be able to compete for trophies, then there's not much hope left.”

Brendan Rodgers is a crucial part of the puzzle. He's been at Liverpool for three years and agreed to a new four-year contract at the end of last season. He's well protected but is still walking a tightrope. Certainly, as mentioned in this column previously, his coaching talents cannot be denied – his ability to get Liverpool out of the hole they found themselves in earlier this season deserves much respect. But when his performance is reviewed by FSG in a matter of weeks, he will face plenty of questions.

There was heavy spending last summer that has yielded little more than disappointment and exasperation. The volatile Italian, Mario Balotelli, was signed and then discarded just as quick. Gerrard was allowed walk away from the club he joined at nine years of age. Ex-Liverpool players like Daniel Agger and Andy Carroll spoke earlier this season about Rodgers' poor man-management skills. So, it doesn't seem likely that Rodgers has the requisite nous to persuade a want-a-way figure from departing. And it's up to FSG to figure out if he's actually part of the problem and whether Sterling may have a bigger future at Anfield than the current coach.

Rodgers has already punched above his weight: on average, a Premier League manager survives for 22 months before being fired.

Comolli feels that Liverpool will sell, because of market conditions and the effect of Rodgers' performance as boss.

“Liverpool are left with two options - to sell him in the summer or to wait until next summer (and hope that something or someone will convince him to sign a new deal during the course of next season). Waiting until next summer is a huge gamble - whatever his value is now, next year with just one year left, the value will be half of what it is now.

’’So, with the huge investments FSG have made since Rodgers has been in charge and no Champions League money (Liverpool have finished outside the top-four and will only qualify for next season's Europa League), the owners will definitely look at the financial side of it.

”On the other hand they could take the view that the player has cost them next to nothing (minimal wage and no transfer fee as he joined at 15) so they're not actually losing money they've invested. But I'll be amazed if they approach it that way.”

Ferguson relentlessly referenced that well-worn cliche that “no player is ever bigger than the club”. It sounds immensely noble. But, of course, it's hypocritical. In Ferguson's case, Eric Cantona and Rooney were allowed to do what they wanted because of their personalities and overall effect on Manchester United. Their value meant more than anything. Talent usually has a big ego and it's up to other people to manage it properly.

Sterling knows what he's worth. It's up to Liverpool to figure out if they agree with him or not.