Football by the Numbers: Matchup Decider

These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week.


Yes, it's early. But we weight the rankings 50 percent for last year and 50 percent for the two weeks of 2012. This way, they can be better relied upon when choosing among players that you believe are generally close in value. Last week, it was 75%/25% and the results were pretty good – recommending the Chiefs and Vikings and advocating avoiding more marginal Jaguars, Cowboys, Ravens and Eagles.
If you have other questions relating to matchups, feel free to ask them via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. I cannot emphasize enough that these defensive rankings have nothing to do with which defense to play in fantasy.
This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red Zone Possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Yardage allowed is more reliable than touchdowns allowed for predictive purposes. Ideally, the two correlate. But some teams really can be break but don't bend, e.g., teams that blitz a lot.
Defensive Power Rankings


Teams are sorted by cumulative rankings in all categories. Lowest total number is best; highest is worst.

Rank

Team

RZ

RYPG

RTD/G

PYPG

PTD/G

POWER

1

Houston

4

8

1

1

2

18

2

Pittsburgh

14

11

8

5

15

24.5

3

Seattle

4

2

8

14

5

38.25

4

San Francisco

2

6

1

19

15

39.25

5

Baltimore

22

20

23

27

2

44.5

6

Philadelphia

4

15

8

4

2

60.75

7

San Diego

4

1

1

12

5

61.25

8

Dallas

14

23

19

3

5

62.5

9

Cincinnati

4

19

23

29

21

63.75

10

Jacksonville

29

31

31

17

1

65.5

10

NY Jets

11

22

19

16

26

65.5

12

Atlanta

11

25

28

15

5

66

13

Miami

22

4

19

31

5

67.5

14

Cleveland

11

18

1

28

26

69.75

15

Chicago

18

9

8

21

15

72.5

16

Arizona

18

13

1

10

5

78.5

16

Tennessee

29

30

23

20

26

78.5

18

Minnesota

14

12

1

11

21

86.75

19

Denver

22

7

8

9

21

89.5

20

Washington

22

10

1

30

32

89.75

21

St Louis

18

21

28

24

5

90.75

22

Kansas City

29

27

23

18

26

91.5

23

Green Bay

1

26

8

2

15

91.75

24

New Orleans

29

32

31

26

15

93.25

25

New England

4

5

8

7

5

93.5

26

NY Giants

4

16

8

22

26

94.75

27

Detroit

2

17

8

6

15

95.25

28

Oakland

22

29

28

8

5

112.25

29

Carolina

18

28

19

13

5

113

30

Indianapolis

28

14

23

25

21

116.25

31

Buffalo

22

24

8

23

26

125.5

32

Tampa Bay

14

3

8

32

21

126



Matchups to exploit
Buffalo (31) at Cleveland: The Bills were bad last year and this year. So Trent Richardson is very likely to be a top back again this week. Greg Little makes a good play. If you're in a two-quarterback league, you could do worse than starting Brandon Weeden, too. Weeden, by the way, had the greatest second-start improvement for any rookie QB since 2000, according to Stats, LLC, as I documented in the Wall Street Journal.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (30): Okay, this doesn't help much. But if you are daring and/or desperate, this would be the week to cash the Justin Blackmon check you wrote on draft day. Remember, the zero last week isn't that big a minus because the Texans are a shutdown defense. And of course, you do not want to be playing against Maurice Jones-Drew this week.
Pittsburgh at Oakland (28): the Raiders are so terrible this year against the run. But that's mostly Reggie Bush, who maybe is just really good (5.2 yards per carry since 2009, 3.7 before). Nearly 20 percent of Steelers runs have gone for losses. But that clears a playing-time path for Rashard Mendenhall if he is able to go as expected. Should he play, I anticipate 15-to-20 carries – and against this team, that's flex-worthy, at least. But play Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers, too, because the Raiders adjustment may well be to crash the line of scrimmage, thus exposing the secondary one-on-one. As the Jets found out last week, that will get you burned against Mike Wallace and company.
Matchups to avoid
Houston (1) at Denver: The Texans are nasty. But the caveat is that the Broncos will go no-huddle and really try to wind the Houston defenders in the thin air. Still, this is a tough matchup for Peyton Manning. I'd play him and Demaryius Thomas if I owned them, but would look to replace Eric Decker and Willis McGahee this week.
Pittsburgh (2) at Oakland: Yes, these matchups work both ways. Play your Steelers, avoid your Raiders. Hope that Darren McFadden can do damage as a receiver. He's very unlikely to get his running on track here. Forget Carson Palmer and the rest of the Raiders completely.
Green Bay at Seattle (3): Aaron Rodgers owners I suspect are not going to be happy after this game. You have to play him, of course. And if you want to upgrade quarterback, I suspect Rodgers's price after this weekend will be lower than it's been since early in his first year as starter. Forget about Cedric Benson. No one else on the Packers should be expected to have great days. The Seahawks are nasty, no doubt.

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