Yahoo Sports Who could be 2018's surprise fantasy running back? We have some early clues
By Neil Dutton, Player Profiler
Special to Yahoo Sports
A wise man once said that players shouldn’t count their reps, but should make their reps count. If we substitute the word “reps” for “opportunities,” the sentiment remains the same. This is especially true when it comes to running backs in the modern NFL.
In 2017, only 15 running backs accounted for at least 50% of their teams total rushing attempts. The days of the NFL bell-cow-back are dead. The NFL now exists in the time of the Satellite Back: a player who, while never likely to command a full workload, is nevertheless a key contributor and is expected to deliver whenever they are called upon. These players have become worth their weight in gold in fantasy football. One of the best in the game at present is Washington Redskins back Chris Thompson. He played on just over 53% of Washington’s snaps a year ago, averaging a mere 6.4 rushing attempts per game. Despite this small workload, he was top ten in terms of fantasy points per game, and led all running backs with 7.8 yards per touch. He is up to his usual tricks through two weeks of the 2018 season, averaging 1.57 fantasy points per opportunity and 7.9 yards per touch. All this, despite a 39.0% Opportunity Share on PlayerProfiler.com.
Alas, there is only one Chris Thompson, and 31 other NFL teams are frantically searching for theirs. Here are three players who are strong candidates to become the next “It” NFL satellite back and enjoy favorable fantasy football match-ups in the weeks ahead.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos
An undrafted rookie out of Colorado, Phillip Lindsay is already making noise through two games of his NFL career. He is the first undrafted free agent in NFL history to amass at least 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two games. Lindsay was ridiculously productive in college, with an 85th percentile College Dominator rating of 38.4% and a whopping 14.6% Target Share, which reached the 92nd percentile among NFL running backs.
Lindsay has done most of his early damage as a rusher, seeing only four targets in his first two games. His 6.7 yards per touch ranks No. 6 among qualified NFL running backs. However, at 5’7″ and 184 pounds, it is unlikely he’ll be able to stand up to the task of becoming a true workhorse back. But given his 4.44 40-yard dash time and a 122.4 Burst Score, he should be able to easily settle into a pass-catching role for the Broncos moving forward. If he can keep up his 31.2% Juke Rate (evaded tackles per touch on PlayerProfiler), he should have ample opportunity to make defenders look silly for the rest of the season.
James White, New England Patriots
If you can find someone to love you as much as the Patriots love satellite backs, you will be truly blessed in this life. James White is the latest off the line that includes Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen. His deeds as a pass catcher need little embellishment, given his Super Bowl single game record of 14 receptions in Super Bowl LI.
White’s future in the NFL was pretty clear even during his time at Wisconsin. Often sharing a backfield with Melvin Gordon, White posted a mere 13.2% (14th percentile) College Dominator Rating, while at the same time, he commanded a 12.1% (84th percentile) Target Share. White has developed an outstanding relationship with Patriots QB Tom Brady over the last few seasons. Brady averages 7.72 adjusted yards per attempt on the 209 regular season targets he has sent the way of White. Among RBs targeted at least 50 times by Brady, only his link up with Woodhead was more profitable (7.98).
White has gotten off to a hot start in 2018 despite a 34.7% Opportunity Share for the Patriots. He has the 5th most receiving yards among RBs with 111. Only six RBs have more receptions than White’s 11. Through two weeks, White has posted 1.19 fantasy points per opportunity — the 13th most. The Patriots wide receiver corps is about to get a whole lot muddier after the team acquired Josh Gordon and with Julian Edelman two weeks away from a return from suspension. That said, James White’s role seems secure for the immediate future.
Javorius Allen, Baltimore Ravens
Javorius Allen is for real. Allen posted a rather pedestrian 5.4 yards per carry at USC, along with a far from good-but-not-great 27.7% College Dominator Rating. He was heavily involved as a pass catcher, however, seeing an 82nd percentile 11.7% College Target Share. Allen has played in all 16 games in two of his three NFL seasons. In these campaigns, he eclipsed 500 yards rushing as well as reeling in at least 40 passes each year.
Allen’s 40.4% Opportunity Share is a walking nightmare for Alex Collins fantasy owners, but the advanced efficiency metrics, such as Production Premium, suggest Allen will command an even greater percentage of the RB opportunities with Kenneth Dixon on Injured Reserve. He only trails team mate Alex Collins by six carries (16 to 10), and has scored two rushing touchdowns to Collins one. In terms of Fantasy points per opportunity, Allen is No. 9 among NFL running backs. One area of concern moving forward would be his low yards per touch mark of 3.8. 44 backs are amassing more yards with each touch than Allen.
The Ravens are passing on 55.2% of their offensive plays, and if this ratio holds up for the rest of the season Allen should continue to be fantasy relevant. But a few more yards a touch wouldn’t hurt.
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
It would be wrong of me to write of satellite backs without pointing out the increased opportunity that awaits to such players, at least in the short term. With Joe Mixon likely to miss a few weeks for the Bengals after a medical procedure, Giovanni Bernard is likely to be elevated to a workhorse role. In two games that Mixon missed last season, Bernard averaged 12.5 rush attempts for 46 yards, as well as seeing 6.5 targets, which he converted into 4.5 receptions for 40.5 yards. Excuse the gratuitous extrapolation, but Bernard averaged 16.15 PPR points per contest, which projected over a full 16 game season would amount to 258. That would have been good for RB9 a year ago.
Ito Smith, Atlanta Falcons
With question marks surrounding the health and fitness of Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman will step into the lead role. But this opens up his usual role of second back in Atlanta, and into this breach should step Ito Smith. Smith posted a 33.9% (75th percentile) College Dominator Rating, as well as a 13.4% (87th percentile) Target Share at South Mississippi. Smith’s senior partner Coleman has shown that it is possible to be fantasy relevant behind a “lead” back with the Falcons. Coleman has averaged 9.79 PPR points in games that he has played with Freeman over the last three seasons, and 15.2 when Freeman has sat out.
