Fantasy Football Week 12 Preview: Cardinals lacking fire

Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why. An important note every week: check the player’s status. There is so much injury uncertainty and Friday’s practice, which occurs after this is posted, is key.

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Cardinals at Falcons (O/U 50.5): This is a really bad slate of Sunday games. According to the Vegas totals, this is the only game cracking 50. Carson Palmer ($29) is a mess. I never would have imagined that there would be just two playable fantasy guys in a healthy Arizona offense come Thanksgiving. I thought this was going to be The Greatest Show on Turf 2.0. But after David Johnson ($40) and Larry Fitzgerald ($33), there is no one to roster here. Palmer just holds the ball way too long. There is no crispness now in this Arizona offense. The Falcons are expected to get Tevin Coleman ($14) back and that’s good. But we have to see him showing that explosive, pre-injury form before playing him with confidence. Julio Jones ($34) torched Patrick Peterson when the two met in 2014, piling up 10 catches (on 12 targets) for 189 yards and a TD.

Panthers at Raiders (O/U: 49): Cam Newton ($33) led the league in TD% last year of attempts powered by his best season in yard per pass attempt (sixth-best 7.8). This year, regression has hit hard as he ranks 19th in YPA and 21st in TD%. His four rushing TDs have been helpful but he’s still the 16th-ranked QB in fantasy scoring. That’s not shocking considering that he was ranked 17th in 2014. Learn how to spot the outlier season and never pay retail for a quarterback. Let the position come to you. Like with Derek Carr ($35), who is the seventh-best QB scorer this year. The Panthers defense has played better of late (2nd best 4.2 yards allowed per play in November). And they’re 7th-best this month in passer rating allowed. So don’t load up on Raiders this week. The Raiders defense could have trouble with Newton and company. But the Panthers target allocation is not consistent. Targets the last four games for Kelvin Benjamin ($21), for example: 5, 7, 12, 4.

Chargers at Texans (O/U: 46.5): The Texans defense is good and they’re at home. The Raiders were muzzled for most of Monday night’s game. I have low confidence in Philip Rivers ($29) this week, even though Rivers usually excels on the road. Only four wideouts have more 100-yard receiving games than $18 Tyrell Williams (Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, A.J. Green). But note how the Texans secondary shut out the superior Raiders wideouts for most of Monday Night’s game. Antonio Gates ($18) has 9+ targets in four straight games. He also has five TDs this year. You can do much worse. I will repeat what I’ve been saying for many weeks: Brock Osweiler makes DeAndre Hopkins ($18) a borderline WR3 and Lamar Miller ($27) a RB2. He’s that bad.

[Week 12 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

NOTEBOOK

— The Bears are dead. Abandon ship.

— Delanie Walker ($25) was disappointing last week and is down about three targets per game from last year. But $35 Marcus Mariota’s TD efficiency is helping smooth out this regression in annual. Walker is too pricey in daily however.

— Allen Hurns ($12) has 13 targets in his last three games and can’t be played now. I was among those who last week felt he was priced into value but this is a dangerous way to think.

— Tyler Eifert ($18) needs A.J. Green to occupy the defense’s attention, like all but a handful of tight ends in NFL history. Don’t think that Green’s injury is somehow good news for Eifert. It wasn’t last week and is unlikely to be going forward. Teams can take out the vast majority of TEs easily if they don’t fear that hurting them with more explosive receivers.

— Carlos Hyde ($21) is not getting the bump you’d expect from Colin Kaepernick. That 3.8 per carry should be about 4.5 even if Hyde is an average talent, according to historical models on running back efficiency with high-volume running QBs.

— Isaiah Crowell ($19) has 66 rushing yards total in his last four games. But he’s caught 14 passes for 137 yards in the stretch. If we combine this Crowell with the Crowell of the first four weeks, we’d have a RB1.

— Rashad Jennings ($20) has been great the last two weeks (238 scrimmage yards and two TDs) after doing nothing previously. The Giants want to run more and Jennings is getting about 70% of snaps. The setup this week in Cleveland is outstanding.

— Thomas Rawls ($19) ran better last week and deserves a shot in your lineups after leading the league in rushing efficiency last year. That was with a healthy Russell Wilson as a running threat though. So 4.6 per carry is the limit of our expectations and 4.0 the floor.

— Trevor Siemian rarely even attempts to throw the ball downfield but Demaryius Thomas ($27) is still on pace for 88 catches and about 1,100 yards. The trouble is he’s just a player you can win with and no longer a player who wins games for you.

— Ryan Fitzpatrick is back starting for the Jets despite being the worst QB in football this year (67.6). Because reportedly if Fitzpatrick was benched, head coach Todd Bowles feared a rebellion. Meaning, of course, that the inmates are quite literally running the asylum.