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Fantasy Football Trust Meter: Will A.J. Brown course correct in the fantasy playoffs?

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·5 min read

It can be easy to tilt and question even the easiest start/sit decisions — especially In the fantasy football playoffs. Can we trust the recent boom performances? Should we stick with the stars that got us to the postseason who have disappointed lately? Dalton Del Don is here to help us gauge the trustworthiness of certain players in fantasy's biggest weeks.

Brown hasn’t seen double-digit targets in a game since Week 1, and he’s been fantasy’s WR37 since Week 8 (DeVonta Smith has been the WR36 over that span). Brown is the WR45 in expected fantasy points on the season, when he’s seen just four red-zone targets (and only one inside the 10) all year. Brown remains an elite wide receiver who leads the league in yards per route run, but volume has hurt his fantasy value.

Brown ranks second in target share (31.7%), but he ranks 45th in targets (66). Jalen Hurts averaged 33.0 pass attempts over the first four games this season but just 21.4 over nine games since Philadelphia’s bye. The Eagles have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the NFL this season and rank second-to-last in WR fantasy usage over the last month. The run-heavy approach is unlikely to change with Philadelphia winning all nine games since the bye. Moreover, the Eagles have had the league’s easiest WR schedule up until this point but get a more challenging one down the stretch. Brown will be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. this week against a tough Steelers’ defense leading the league in EPA/dropback since Week 9.

You’re not sitting Brown in fantasy leagues, but his trust level has dropped to high-end WR2 status moving forward.

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Addison is suddenly the WR13 in fantasy points per game this season after erupting for three scores last week. He has six more targets and 26 more fantasy points than Justin Jefferson over the last month, when he’s also led Minnesota in air yards share (42%) and end-zone target share (40%). Addison also ranks fourth in yards per route run (3.33) and sixth in first-read target share (35.5%) over that span.

The Vikings’ WR schedule continues to look difficult over the fantasy playoffs, but Addison could benefit from Jaylon Johnson shadowing Jefferson this week. Sam Darnold’s TD% (7.3) is likely to drop, but Addison appears to be making a legitimate second-year leap.

Addison may be due for a bit of regression, but he can be trusted in fantasy lineups. Just don’t be surprised by a down game at a wildly volatile position week-to-week.

Thielen has been the WR10 over the last two weeks despite not getting credit for this touchdown catch and facing the league’s best defense last week (when he was mostly shadowed by Cooper DeJean). Thielen leads Carolina in target share (30%), air yards share (33%) and end-zone target share (50%) over the last two games, and Bryce Young has shown real improvement not necessarily shown by his box scores.

Thielen was fantasy’s WR7 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) over the first eight weeks last season, and Young is playing at a far higher level now. The Panthers have the seventh-easiest WR schedule over the fantasy playoffs, including a prime matchup in Tampa Bay during championship week.

The concern is the possible return of Jalen Coker, who’s been sidelined since Thielen came back. But the Panthers have the league’s second-highest WR fantasy usage over the last month, and Xavier Legette has struggled mightily with drops (Coker could move outside). Moreover, Coker’s return may not necessarily be imminent with Carolina adding two wide receivers to its roster Tuesday.

Thielen can be fully trusted as a WR2 down the stretch.

Reed is the WR26 in fantasy points per game this season and the WR6 over the last calendar year, but he’s been the WR51 since Week 9, sandwiched between Brandin Cooks and Ray-Ray McCloud. Role and volume have been the culprits; Reed’s targets per route run have dropped from 24.3% as a rookie down to 19.6% this season, and he continues not to play in 12-personnel. Reed ran just 15 routes last week, when he finished with season lows in target share (5.3%), snap share (44%) and route share (57%) despite Romeo Doubs being out.

Moreover, the Packers have the fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation this season. Jordan Love has just six touchdown passes over his last six games (after throwing 15 over his first five), and he’s averaged only 22.0 pass attempts over four games since Green Bay’s bye. The Packers have a favorable schedule in Weeks 16 and 17, but they get a Seahawks defense Sunday night that’s ceded the second-lowest EPA/play since Week 9 (and with Devon Witherspoon at slot corner).

Reed remains the WR27 in “expert consensus ranks” this week, but he’s lost all trust with fantasy managers entering the playoffs.

Cooper saw 14 targets and the most air yards (254) in any game this season last week. He led Buffalo with a 38% target share, shattering his previous best (16.7%) since joining the Bills. Cooper still had just a 63% route participation and played only 54% of the snaps last week despite Keon Coleman remaining out.

The Bills project to be in another shootout in Detroit this week, as the matchup has a whopping 54.5-point total that’s easily one of the highest all season. That said, the Lions have allowed the fewest WR fantasy points over expected this season, while Coleman and Dalton Kincaid could return.

There’s obvious upside if last week’s connection with Josh Allen continues, and Sunday’s matchup could provide another prime opportunity, but fantasy managers have no idea if they can trust Cooper right now.