Emmy Predictions: Scripted Variety — Despite Being Eligible John Oliver Won’t Submit for Acting Emmy: ‘He’s Not Acting’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
More from Variety
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: May 25, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Weekly Commentary: What the hell is a scripted variety series when John Oliver’s biting monologues about the war in Ukraine are competing against Courtroom Kiki, Pedro Pascal playing a Super Mario brother, and Stephen Colbert’s animated quest to “toon out the news?”
The Television Academy’s rules for the newly titled variety talk series and scripted variety categories continue to get muddy. However, some shows, and their stars, aren’t taking all available avenues for Emmy recognition. Most notable is John Oliver, the host of “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver,” which was moved into the scripted variety from talk series by the TV Academy. It will compete against NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” and its cable counterpart “A Black Lady Sketch Show.”
What casual award enthusiasts may not be aware of is a move into the scripted variety makes the late-night host and comedian eligible to submit for consideration in the lead comedy actor acting race, where he would face front-runners Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”), Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) and Steve Martin and Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”). However, HBO reps have confirmed he did not submit for the category, although he was eligible.
“He’s not acting,” one industry professional tells Variety. “He shouldn’t have been moved there in the first place.”
HBO tried to keep Oliver from being moved out of the talk series category but was denied. The format of each episode has the British host exploring one particular topic in depth, filmed in front of a live studio audience. While there are instances of mock trailers for fictional TV shows during episodes, perhaps it was not having guests on the show that kept him from competing against Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel and Jon Stewart (who was moved by the TV Academy from hosted nonfiction).
A show like Showtime’s “Ziwe,” canceled in April 2023 and fitting what many assume would be the talk show’s mold, has competed alongside the sketch shows for its two previous seasons. Featuring the titular writer, comedian and internet sensation sitting down for viral-making interviews, paired with a mixture of musical numbers and sketches, the 31-year-old host has chosen to submit into the lead comedy actress race, which she’s done in previous Emmy years. Other female scripted variety counterparts also vying for consideration are Robin Thede (“A Black Lady Sketch Show”) and Amy Schumer (“Inside Amy Schumer”).
The stark contrast between “SNL,” “Last Week Tonight” and “Black Lady Sketch” is even more jarring nowadays. Apple’s musical-comedy “Schmigadoon” tried to switch from comedy to scripted but was confirmed to be denied by the TV Academy.
Scripted variety continues to struggle in the number of submissions. Variety is currently tracking only 11 submissions which will also include — “Documentary Now!” (IFC), “History of the World Part II” (Hulu), “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+), “Pause with Sam Jay” (HBO), “Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC) and “Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News” (Paramount+). Per Emmy rules, this will yield only three nominees.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
“A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)
Next in Line
“History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
“Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
“Ziwe” (Showtime)
“Documentary Now!” (IFC)
“Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News”
“Pause with Sam Jay” (HBO)
“Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
“Documentary Now!” (IFC)
“Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC)
“A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)
“History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
“Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
“Pause with Sam Jay” (HBO)
“Random Acts of Flyness” (HBO)
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
“Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News”
“Ziwe” (Showtime)
** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) — Season 48 — Lorne Michaels, executive producer; Javier Winnik, supervising producer; Lindsay Shookus, Erin Doyle, Tom Broecker and Caroline Maroney, producers; Steve Higgins and Erik Kenward, produced by
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
Best of Variety
Sign up for Variety’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
