Emmys: Comedy Series ‘Abbott’ vs. ‘Ted’ With Some ‘Bear’ on the Side?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 17, 2023): Many pundits agree that the ABC mockumentary sitcom may have been the runner-up of last year’s comedy series. This year, it returned better than ever, showcasing an inspiring evolution of the characters and solidifying Quinta Brunson’s future in Hollywood. Garnering eight noms for its sophomore season, an “Abbott Elementary” win would be more than inspiring for broadcast TV, which hasn’t seen success in this category since the fifth season of “Modern Family” in 2014. Moreover, it must overcome not being nominated for either directing or writing. “Friends” was the last series to win without nominations in either of those categories in 2002. I’d bet if it pulls it off, my suspicion is it looks eerily similar to the memorable night.

It’s been two in a row for Apple TV+’s premier comedy “Ted Lasso,” garnering the most nominations for a comedy with 21. The first season broke the record for the most noms for a first-year show and this year was just one shy of breaking the all-time record held by “30 Rock” in 2009. Only seven comedies have won for each of its first three seasons, with “Modern Family” being the most recent in 2012.

Continuing a trend of shows that feel more dramatic than hilarious, FX’s freshman series “The Bear” features a bombastic cast led by Jeremy Allen White, a force in the writing and directing races. And although the fuzzy distinction could be less clear after the sophomore season has already aired and dropped for audiences, smart campaigning could make the show a more accessible item for voters to embrace. It would be the first cable show to win since HBO’s “Veep” in 2017.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

The Netflix series “Wednesday” has been a pop culture phenomenon. The streaming giant managed to land crucial noms, including 20-year-old Jenna Ortega, the second youngest lead comedy actress nominee in history. Interestingly, despite being a dominant force over the last decade at the Emmys, Netflix has yet to win the top prize for a comedy. There could be enough magic to bring the Tim Burton joint to the big stage, but it’ll need some other crucial wins to get there (i.e., directing or a slew of crafts).

Hands down, one of the most remarkable things the Television Academy has ever done was nominating the hilarious TV series “Jury Duty.” Created by Lee Eisenberg and Gene Stupnitsky, the Amazon Freevee show, which follows the inner workings of a jury trial through the eyes of a civilian, is one of the finest new shows this year. The comedy didn’t just scrape through either; it managed pick-ups for writing, casting and supporting actor for James Marsden (which he could win). If TV Academy members feel a bit frisky, what’s a better way to turn the system on its head and award the groundbreaking mockumentary?

The final season of Miriam “Midge” Maisel from Prime Video’s comedy series winner from 2018 has long been an Academy darling. Star Rachel Brosnahan earned rave reviews for her beloved turn, and the streamer has mounted an effective campaign that matched its 14 nominations from last year. Although the win could be too challenging to overcome, crazier upsets have happened at the Emmys.

A sophomore season is in the books, with a third underway as voting opens for Hulu’s mystery series “Only Murders in the Building.” With 11 nominations, including lead actor Martin Short and directing, it’s probably just happy to have made the cut this year and hold any full-force campaigns until next year with Meryl Streep in hand. Perhaps they’ll remember to finally nominate Selena Gomez then?

The rankings for the category are below.

The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST. The 75th Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, January 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. The Creative Arts ceremony will occur on Saturday, January 6, and Sunday, January 7. An edited version will air on FXX on Saturday, January 13, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET. All events will take place at the Peacock Theater at LA Live.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

And the Nominees Are:

1. “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Quinta Brunson, Justin Halpern, Patrick Schumacker, Randall Einhorn (executive producers), Brian Rubenstein (co-executive producer), Jordan Temple (supervising producer), Brittani Nichols, Josh Greene, Scott Stiles (producers)
   Episode submissions: “Development Day,” “Teachers Conference,” “Holiday Hookah,” “Read-a-Thon,” “Egg Drop,” “Educator of the Year”

2. “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Jason Sudeikis, Bill Lawrence, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jeff Ingold, Jane Becker, Bill Wrubel, Jamie Lee, Liza Katzer (executive producers), Brett Goldstein, Leann Bowen, Chucky Hayward, Andrew Warren, Kip Kroeger (co-executive producers), Matt Lipsey (supervising producer), Phoebe Walsh (producer)
   Episode submissions: “Chelsea,” “Sunflowers,” “La Locker Room Aux Follies,” “International Break,” “Mom City,” “So Long, Farewell”

3. “The Bear” (FX) — Joanna Calo, Josh Senior, Christopher Storer, Hiro Murai, Nate Matteson (executive producer), Rene Gube (co-executive producer), Tyson Bidner (produced by)
   Episode submissions: “System,” “Hands,” “Dogs,” “Ceres,” “Review,” “Braciole”

4. “Jury Duty” (Freevee) — David Bernad, Lee Eisenberg, Gene Stupnitsky, Ruben Fleischer, Nicholas Hatton, Cody Heller, Todd Schulman, Jake Szymanski, Andrew Weinberg (executive producers), Robyn Adams (supervising producer), Tanner Bean, Katrina Mathewson, Alexis Sampietro (producers), Matthew McIntyre (produced by)
   Episode submissions: “Voir Dire,” “Foreperson,” “Field Trip,” “Ineffective Assistance,” “Deliberations,” “The Verdict”

5. “Wednesday” (Netflix) — Alfred Gough, Miles Millar, Tim Burton, Andrew Mittman, Gail Berman, Steve Stark, Kayla Alpert, Jonathan Glickman, Tommy Harper, Kevin Lafferty, Kevin Miserocchi (executive producers), Todd Williams, Carla Vargas, David Minkowski (co-executive producers), Carmen Pepelea (produced by)
   Episode submissions: “Wednesday’s Child Is Full of Woe,” “Woe Is the Loneliest Number,” “Friend of Woe,” “Woe What a Night,” “You Reap What You Woe,” “Quid Pro Woe”

6. “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video) — Daniel Palladino, Amy Sherman-Palladino (executive producers), Dhana Rivera Gilbert, Neena Beber (co-executive producer), Dipika Guha (supervising producer), Matthew Shapiro, Sal Carino, Jen Kirkman, Isaac Oliver (producers), Nick Thomason (produced by)
   Episode submissions: “Go Forward,” “Susan,” “The Testi-Roastial,” “A House Full of Extremely Lame Horses,” “The Princess and the Plea,” “Four Minutes”

7. “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — Dan Fogelman, Jess Rosenthal, Steve Martin, Martin Short, Selena Gomez, John Hoffman (executive producers), Matteo Borghese, Rob Turbovsky, Ben Smith, Kristen Newman, Kirker Butler (co-executive producer), Nick Pavonetti (producer), Kristin Bernstein (produced by)
   Episode submissions: “Persons of Interest,” “The Last Day of Bunny Folger,” “Performance Review,” “Hello Darkness,” “Sparring Partners,” “I Know Who Did It”

8. “Barry” (HBO) — Bill Hader, Alec Berg, Aida Rodgers, Liz Sarnoff (executive producers), Duffy Boudreau (co-executive producer), Julie Camino (produced by)
   Episode submissions: “you’re charming,” “it takes a psycho,” “tricky legacies,” “the wizard,” “a nice meal,” “wow”

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

• “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

• “The Conners” (ABC)

• “The Goldbergs” (ABC)

• “Home Economics” (ABC)

• “Not Dead Yet” (ABC)

• “The Wonder Years” (ABC)

• “Lucky Hank” (AMC)

• “Acapulco” (Apple TV+)

• “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+)

• “Hello Tomorrow!” (Apple TV+)

• “Loot” (Apple TV+)

• “Mythic Quest” (Apple TV+)

• “Physical” (Apple TV+)

• “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)

• “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

• “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

• “The Ms. Pat Show” (BET+)

• “Act Your Age” (Bounce TV)

• “Johnson” (Bounce TV)

• “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)

• “Ghosts” (CBS)

• “The Neighborhood” (CBS)

• “So Help Me Todd” (CBS)

• “True Lies” (CBS)

• “Awkwafina is Nora From Queens” (Comedy Central)

• “American Born Chinese” (Disney+)

• “She-Hulk: Attorney at Law” (Disney+)

• “Animal Control” (Fox)

• “Call Me Kat” (Fox)

• “Welcome to Flatch” (Fox)

• “Everything’s Trash” (Freeform)

• “Grown-ish” (Freeform)

• “Single Drunk Female” (Freeform)

• “Jury Duty” (Freevee)

• “Primo” (Freevee)

• “Sprung” (Freevee)

• “Atlanta” (FX)

• “The Bear” (FX)

• “Breeders” (FX)

• “Dave” (FX)

• “Reboot” (FX)

• “Reservation Dogs” (FX)

• “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

• “Avenue 5” (HBO)

• “Barry” (HBO)

• “Julia” (HBO)

• “Los Espookys” (HBO)

• “The Other Two” (HBO)

• “Rain Dogs” (HBO)

• “The Rehearsal” (HBO)

• “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO)

• “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)

• “The Great” (Hulu)

• “This Fool” (Hulu)

• “Rain Dogs” (HBO)

• “Rap Shit!” (HBO)

• “The Sex Lives of College Girls” (HBO)

• “South Side” (HBO)

• “Extraordinary” (Hulu)

• “How I Met Your Father” (Hulu)

• “Love, Victor” (Hulu)

• “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

• “The Orville: New Horizons” (Hulu)

• “Ramy” (Hulu)

• “This Fool” (Hulu)

• “Unprisoned” (Hulu)

• “Up Here” (Hulu)

• “Wreck” (Hulu)

• “Sisters” (IFC)

• “American Auto” (NBC)

• “Grand Crew” (NBC)

• “Lopez vs. Lopez” (NBC)

• “Night Court” (NBC)

• “Blockbuster” (Netflix)

• “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)

• “Dead to Me” (Netflix)

• “Emily in Paris” (Netflix)

• “Fubar” (Netflix)

• “Mo” (Netflix)

• “Never Have I Ever” (Netflix)

• “That ’90s Show” (Netflix)

• “Uncoupled” (Netflix)

• “Unstable” (Netflix)

• “The Upshaws” (Netflix)

• “Wednesday” (Netflix)

• “The Game” (Paramount+)

• “Grease: Rise of the Pink Ladies” (Paramount+)

• “Tulsa King” (Paramount+)

• “Bupkis” (Peacock)

• “Pitch Perfect: Bumper in Berlin” (Peacock)

• “Poker Face” (Peacock)

• “The Resort” (Peacock)

• “Rutherford Falls” (Peacock)

• “The Consultant” (Prime Video)

• “Harlem” (Prime Video)

• “A League of Their Own” (Prime Video)

• “Mammals” (Prime Video)

• “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

• “The Outlaws” (Prime Video)

• “Slip” (The Roku Channel)

• “Blindspotting” (Starz)

• “Party Down” (Starz)

• “Resident Alien” (Syfy)

** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Season 2 — Bill Lawrence, Jason Sudeikis, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jeff Ingold, Bill Wrubel (executive producers); Jane Becker, Jamie Lee, Liza Katzer (co-executive producers); Kip Kroeger, Declan Lowney (supervising producers); Leann Bowen, Ashley Nicole Black (producers); Andrew Warren (produced by)

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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