Eight key questions as college basketball practice opens

Since Villanova coach Jay Wright climbed atop a ladder and trimmed that last strand of net in Houston last April, we’ve all patiently waited for college basketball to resume.

At long last it’s finally almost here.

Friday is the first day that Division I college basketball teams can begin practicing for the upcoming season. Yahoo Sports begins its season preview coverage by posing and answering eight key questions entering a new year in college hoops.

1. Who’s the favorite to capture the national title?

Oddsmakers have anointed Duke the favorite to win a championship next April, and with good reason. With four key players back from last season’s 25-win team, Amile Jefferson returning from injury and the nation’s most decorated recruiting class now on campus, Mike Krzyzewski’s program boasts a superior blend of talent and experience than either of his two most recent national title teams.

Duke’s deepest position is at wing, where preseason national player of the year candidate Grayson Allen, sharpshooter Luke Kennard, veteran Matt Jones and heralded freshman Jayson Tatum will each compete for playing time. Allen will also spell McDonald’s All-American Frank Jackson at point guard or play out of position for longer stretches if the freshman struggles.

While Harry Giles is still recovering from a torn right ACL that cost him his entire senior season in high school, Duke has ample frontcourt depth to bring its most ballyhooed freshman along slowly. Jefferson is entrenched as one starter and Marques Bolden would be the leading candidate to play next to him if Giles isn’t ready. Six-foot-10 sophomore Chase Jeter should be more capable of contributing off the bench this season and Tatum is tall enough to handle spot duty at power forward in a pinch.

2. Besides Duke, which other programs could emerge as contenders?

If swiss-cheese defense or suspect point guard play derail Duke’s title hopes, there are a handful of programs poised to capitalize. Reigning national champ Villanova returns all but two key players from last year’s title team, Kentucky boasts its usual stable of coveted freshmen and Kansas, Oregon, North Carolina and Michigan State are also each loaded with talent.

Departing senior Ryan Arcidiacono may have been Villanova’s leader the past few years, but the Wildcats have plenty of perimeter talent to make up for his loss, from point guards Jalen Brunson and Phil Booth, to wings Josh Hart and Mikael Bridges. The graduation of center Daniel Ochefu is more concerning now that the NCAA has ruled prized freshman big man Omari Spellman ineligible this season. Veteran Darryl Reynolds will likely move into the starting lineup in Ochefu’s place alongside national title game hero Kris Jenkins.

While Bam Adebayo and the rest of Kentucky’s five-man freshman class will receive ample preseason hype, John Calipari’s best teams have typically received key contributions from returning players too. The Wildcats will need Derek Willis to space the floor with his 3-point range, Isaac Humphries to score and rebound in the paint and Isaiah Briscoe to provide lockdown perimeter defense and improved outside shooting.

3. Which conference race will be the most compelling?

Xavier should challenge Villanova in the Big East, Arizona is a threat to Oregon in the Pac-12 and North Carolina should push Duke in the ACC, but the most balanced conference race could be the Big Ten. Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue could each start the season with top 15 rankings and legitimate Big Ten title aspirations.

If there is a slim favorite, it might be Michigan State, which says goodbye to last year’s senior stars Denzel Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello but welcomes a top-three recruiting class. As long as talented newcomers Miles Bridges, Cassius Winston and Joshua Langford mesh with the returning players and make an immediate impact, the Spartans are capable of contending in the Big Ten and making a deep NCAA tournament run.

A combination of talent and continuity makes Wisconsin a major threat. Every key player is back from last year’s Badgers team that rallied from a 8-8 start to reach the Sweet 16 including standout point guard Bronson Koenig, NBA prospect Nigel Hayes and emerging big man Ethan Happ.

Both Indiana and Purdue are dominant frontcourt-oriented teams relying on unproven point guards. For the Hoosiers, it’s Pittsburgh transfer Josh Newkirk. For the Boilermakers, it’s injury-plagued Michigan transfer Spike Albrecht or returner P.J. Thompson. If those point guards pan out, then the two in-state rivals should be right there with Wisconsin and Michigan State.

4. What small-conference program could be a March giant killer?

Having accomplished virtually everything a MAAC team could besides winning its conference tournament, Monmouth had legitimate hope of attaining an at-large bid on Selection Sunday last March. The Hawks instead had to settle for an NIT bid despite winning 27 games, capturing the MAAC title outright and upsetting Notre Dame, USC, UCLA and Georgetown.

The memory of that disappointment will no doubt fuel a Monmouth team that brings back nearly its entire roster. Four starters and numerous key reserves are back including standout guards Justin Robinson and Micah Seaborn, both of whom combined to average 32.5 points and 5.7 assists last season.

Among the major-conference programs on Monmouth’s schedule this season are North Carolina, Syracuse, South Carolina and Memphis. Unless the Hawks win at least a couple of those games and perform well in league play, their NCAA tournament fate will probably once again come down to outdueling fellow contenders Siena and Iona in the MAAC tournament.

5. Which teams that missed last season’s NCAA tournament are most likely to make it next March?

Thanks to the strongest recruiting class of Steve Alford’s four-year UCLA tenure, the Bruins have an excellent chance to bounce back from last year’s 15-17 debacle even if they’re probably still not in Arizona’s or Oregon’s class in the Pac-12. Lonzo Ball is an elite point guard prospect whose passing and court vision is reminiscent of Jason Kidd, T.J. Leaf is a skilled forward and Ike Anigbogu adds a much-needed rim protector.

The biggest concern for UCLA is whether it can stop anyone. This was the Pac-12’s third worst defensive team last season, and adding freshmen into the rotation is typically not a cure-all.

Besides the Bruins, look for Ohio State to rebound from an uncharacteristic 14-loss season. The Buckeyes return their top six scorers from last season including senior Marc Loving and juniors Keita Bates-Diop and Jae-Sean Tate.

Seven other high-profile programs with an excellent chance to return to the NCAA tournament this season: Creighton, Florida, Rhode Island, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s and Virginia Tech.

6. Which teams that made last season’s NCAA tournament are most likely to miss it next March?

With Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil both off to the NBA, it’s difficult to imagine Providence duplicating last year’s 24-win season. In fact, the Friars are likely a bottom-four Big East team this season unless forward Rodney Bullock can emerge as a lead dog, point guard Kyron Cartwright proves he can score in addition to distributing and wing Jalen Lindsey gets more consistent shooting from the perimeter.

Iowa too lost an abundance of talent with four starters graduating and shooting guard Peter Jok the lone returner who averaged more than 17 minutes per game last season. Jok may be asked to do too much for Iowa to return to the NCAA tournament unless forward Dom Uhl can make a big leap in production, Jordan Bohannon and Christian Williams combine to solidify the point guard position and promising freshman forward Tyler Cook makes an immediate splash.

Five other high-profile programs at risk of taking a step backward this season: Northern Iowa, Saint Joseph’s, Temple, Texas Tech and USC.

7. What senior is most likely to be this year’s Buddy Hield or Denzel Valentine?

In the year of the senior in college basketball, Hield and Valentine made the biggest impact last season. They evolved from good players as juniors to national player of the year front runners as seniors, Valentine leading Michigan State to a 29-win season and Hield spearheading Oklahoma’s Final Four run.

Of all the players in this year’s senior class, Iowa State point guard Monte Morris may have the best opportunity to make a similar leap. Morris posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than 4-to-1 last season, but he’ll be asked to do far more than distribute this season with George Niang, Jameel McKay and Abdel Nader all gone.

In his previous job at Murray State, Iowa State coach Steve Prohm coached a pair of high-scoring, ball-dominant point guards who are now in the NBA — Isaiah Canaan and Cameron Payne. Look for Morris to evolve into a greater threat to score this season while still keeping talented wings Matt Thomas, Naz Mitrou-Long and Deonte Burton involved in the offense.

8. Which new face in a new place will have the most immediate success?

While Brad Underwood at Oklahoma State and Jamie Dixon at TCU could prove to be the best longterm fits, it may take both some time to have their respective programs contending for league titles. Not so for new Western Kentucky coach Rick Stansbury, whose recruiting has the Hilltoppers poised to challenge UAB in Conference USA this season and emerge as the league’s dominant program by the following year.

Hired in April following the resignation of Ray Harper, Stansbury preceded to add a trio of graduate transfers in Que Johnson (Washington State, Junior Lomomba (Providence) and Pancake Thomas (Hartford). That exciting new backcourt will team with last year’s top scorer and rebounder, Justin Johnson, Tennessee transfer Willie Carmichael and 7-foot-1 Ben Lawson to form a talented nucleus.

There’s always a chance the newcomers don’t mesh quickly enough and Western Kentucky underwhelms in Stansbury’s debut season, but his second year should be a very good one. The Hilltoppers have already landed a pair of top 50 recruits and are in contention to add a couple more coveted prospects.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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