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Duke's month without Mike Krzyzewski was both frustrating and educational

Duke went 4-3 under Capel (R) while Krzyzewski (L) recovered from back surgery. Krzyzewski will return Saturday. (Getty)
Duke went 4-3 under Capel (R) while Krzyzewski (L) recovered from back surgery. Krzyzewski will return Saturday. (Getty)

If there are three defining photographs of the temporary Jeff Capel era at Duke, the story of which was far more complicated than a 4-3 record, all three images are ones Capel would probably love to erase from history. One is of Dennis Smith Jr. soaring through Cameron Indoor Stadium amid a collective Cameron Crazy gasp. Another is a grainy smartphone-to-television snap of Grayson Allen sparking controversy. The third isn’t any specific moment, which makes it the most symbolic.

The third is of Capel himself, his faced stamped with that vexed look that became so ubiquitous throughout his month in charge. It was especially common during Duke’s three losses in four games, when it became increasingly tinged with exasperation and distress. It almost always seemed to express frustration.

More than anything else, that’s what Duke’s month without Mike Krzyzewski was. It was frustrating. That month is now over; Krzyzewski will coach Saturday against Pittsburgh. But it framed the setting to which Coach K now returns. Talent didn’t translate into wins. Instead, it left expectations unfulfilled. Last week’s loss to NC State sunk the Blue Devils further away from those expectations than they had been all season.

It also prompted a firestorm of criticism and panicked analysis. How had this happened? Why had it happened? Krzyzewski held a meeting at his house, and reportedly banned the players from their own locker room. The college basketball community turned into an unsympathetic support group to explore Duke’s problems. And oh, there were plenty of problems. They infested both ends of the floor.

But in Capel’s final week at the helm, something changed — something beyond results. Duke showed progress. And in the end, isn’t that what January is about? Heck, isn’t that what entire regular seasons for teams like Duke are about?

This team’s progress was delayed by injuries and suspensions. Prior to Krzyzewski’s surgery, the Blue Devils had played just three games at full strength. In one, Harry Giles played his first four minutes of competitive basketball since November of his senior year of high school. In the second, Grayson Allen kicked an opponent. The third was Duke’s best performance of the season. Then, in Capel’s first game in charge, Amile Jefferson went down with an injury.

Capel was handed a group of McDonald’s All-Americans unaccustomed to playing with one another and unformed as a unit. He was forced to lead them directly into the ACC grind; forced to play January games with a November team.

The past month was always going to be one of learning, and that’s exactly what it turned out to be. We learned a lot about Duke; more importantly, Duke learned a lot about itself, and about what needs to change. It endured a necessary stage of development. Was that stage rockier than it had to be? Absolutely. But problems can’t be fixed until they are first encountered and identified. Throughout the past month, they were encountered. Whether they’ve been fixed — and whether they can be fixed — is still up for debate.

We won’t know the correct side of that debate until the season has run its course. We can’t fully assess Capel’s brief stint as the head man until then either. Capel’s success will depend on Duke’s success going forward, even as Duke no longer depends on Capel as much as it did over the past month. If that success comes, the frustration of January will be viewed as a requisite building block.

Offense was the source of much of the frustration

Duke’s biggest shortcoming under Capel was the one that’s been discussed since the preseason: the lack of a true point guard. It’s not that Duke has players that can’t pass; it’s that those players haven’t been passing in an offense that lacks structure because it lacks a floor general. Without that point guard, there is no player to steer Duke’s many talented scorers away from playing offense as individuals.

This year’s team has the lowest assist rate of any Duke team since Ken Pomeroy began collecting data, and the lack of ball movement arose as a serious issue in January. Isolations begot more isolations because the likes of Allen, Jayson Tatum, Luke Kennard and others eschewed passing for fear of the ball not finding its was back into their hands. Forced shots begot more forced shots because a pass meant getting left out of the offense.

Part of the problem came from discomfort too. There was a hesitance about the offense that might have been exacerbated by Krzyzewski’s absence, but most likely derived from role fluctuation and the shortage of collective experience. Cuts and off-ball screens outside of set plays were scarce. The product was still a good offense — it ranks 14th nationally, and third in the ACC in conference play. But it’s on pace to be the first non-top-10 Blue Devil offense since 2007-08.

That is, unless it improves, which it did over Capel’s seven games:

(Henry Bushnell)
(Henry Bushnell)

The trend was saved by Kennard’s second-half outburst against Wake. The problems are by no means solved. But the offense looked much better Monday in South Bend than it had in any game since the destruction of Georgia Tech in Krzyzewski’s final game before surgery.

The defensive problems are more difficult to fix

The biggest obstacle on the defensive end of the floor in January was the lack of an obstacle around the rim. By extension, it was Jefferson’s injury, which sidelined him for two games and has seemed to limit his effectiveness since. The impact of his absence and underperformance has been felt in the paint.

Even with Jefferson healthy, though, Duke just isn’t a great interior defensive team. The Blue Devils have had a torrid time trying to protect the rim. Their 2-point field goal defense (47.6 percent) is poor, and has been worse (51.8) in conference play. That’s because, per hoop-math.com, they allow opponents to take 40.9 percent of their shots at the rim, the sixth-highest rate among power conference teams.

Jefferson, statistically, has been a solid rim protector this season, but after blocking 27 shots in November and December, he swatted just one in January. Devoid of a presence at the back of its defense, Duke’s spotty weak-side help and pick-and-roll coverage under Capel were exposed.

But again, Capel made some tweaks, and the Blue Devils had a quality defensive showing against Notre Dame. There were signs that his message was getting through.

So did Capel acquit himself well?

The underlying narrative of the month, of course, was its impact on the Coach K successor sweepstakes. Had Capel gone 6-1 and forged the talent into an offensive machine, the job would have been his to lose. He did not do that, and the job, therefore, is not his to lose. He went 4-, and, until Kennard almost singlehandedly beat Wake Forest, was unable to halt Duke’s downward slide.

As discussed above, Capel’s performance won’t be judged entirely on wins and losses. But nothing Capel did screamed Duke Head Men’s Basketball Coach. There was no outstanding characteristic of his brief tenure to point to, nothing tangible to rest his case on if Krzyzewski were to step down in the near future or even the distant future.

Capel remains Coach K’s second-in-command, but it’s tough to imagine a team becoming so dysfunctional under a coach that could one day take over the program.

It’s especially tough to imagine this Duke team becoming so dysfunctional under Mike Krzyzewski himself, which makes his return so important. Capel stemmed the tide, but if there’s a coach not named John Calipari who can mold this Blue Devil group into a national title contender, it’s Krzyzewski. He’ll have a week to prepare for the first of two Carolina games, and a month to prepare for a postseason run.

And if he and Duke make that run? The month under Capel might be buried under other storylines. It shouldn’t be. Duke learned a lot about itself. Its failures were educational. Now it’s a matter of how the Blue Devils respond to the teachings.