Dolphins at Steelers: How will Miami slow down Pittsburgh's dangerous, rested Big 3?

Miami Dolphins (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS

DOLPHINS AT A GLANCE

Key player: QB Matt Moore. The longtime backup was thrust into the starting role when Ryan Tannehill went down at the worst possible time down the stretch and will be the starter after Tannehill was ruled out for this game on Thursday. Moore has started 28 career games (2-1 down the stretch in 2016) in his nine NFL seasons but has yet to take a postseason snap. He has thrown for 721 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions in his three late-season starts and has been mostly solid. His job will be to avoid back-breaking mistakes, get the ball into the hands of the Dolphins’ playmakers and take advantage of stacked boxes against Jay Ajayi when the opportunities present themselves.

Why they’ll win: Well, they already have beaten this Steelers team. Ajayi was a monster in the first matchup in Miami (25 rushes, 204 yards, two TDs), and they churned out first downs, owned time of possession, won the turnovers battle by plus-two and outgained the Steelers by nearly 200 yards. The Dolphins held Ben Roethlisberger to 189 pass yards and picked him twice. The Dolphins did a good job on Le’Veon Bell in that game, but why he got only 16 touches is a mystery for the ages.

Why they’ll lose: Of course, so much has changed since that last matchup. Roethlisberger was banged up with a knee injury, and the two Dolphins DBs who picked him off — Isa Abdul-Quddus and Reshad Jones — are out for the season. No. 1 corner Byron Maxwell also is doubtful, so this patchwork secondary will have a whale of a challenge against Antonio Brown and Co. Tom Brady picked this group apart last week, and the linebackers are shaky at best, too. The Patriots barely blitzed Moore and still held him under 100 yards passing into the third quarter. Ajayi will have a giant target on his back this time around.

Keep in mind: It’s going to be crucial for Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso. The team is thin on the back end, and his fellow linebackers are nothing special. The defense has allowed nearly 1,000 yards the past two weeks combined, and stanching the bleeding against a rested, dangerous Steelers offense doesn’t feel terribly likely. But Alonso did pretty remarkable job spying on Bell in Week 6, helping limit him to fewer than seven yards per touch.

STEELERS AT A GLANCE

Key player: C Maurkice Pouncey. We picked Pouncey because he’s had a nice season overall as one of the best centers in football, but one of his worst games of the season came in the first matchup against the Dolphins. For that game they didn’t have underrated nose tackle Earl Mitchell, who has returned to the rotation and forms a good trio with Ndamukong Suh and Jordan Phillips. That means Pouncey and Steelers guards David DeCastro and Ramon Foster (who in our eyes is the weak spot on their O-line) will have their hands full. They must control the interior on what’s expected to be a cold day and spring Bell loose for a big game. Don’t forget Suh was accused of kicking Roethlisberger in the Week 6 game, and just last week Suh was called dirty by New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount. Tensions will be high in this game, and we expect Suh to be in the middle of things. Now, if he comes out in Bane mask, all bets are off …

Why they’ll win: Too much firepower. Even if Maxwell plays, slowing down Roethlisberger, Brown, Bell, Eli Rogers and what appears to be a healthy group of tight ends appears to be a nearly impossible challenge. The Dolphins have to hope they can play great red-zone defense and force turnovers to win, but doing so with a banged-up back seven will be brutal. Especially with Ladarius Green (concussion) gearing up to play and giving the Dolphins one more weapon to contend with. The Dolphins likely will throw a lot of two-deep looks at the Steelers, who can eat that coverage up. Can Moore keep up with Roethlisberger and match points? Feels like a lot to ask.

Why they’ll lose: The Dolphins actually have some big-play pop with receivers Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker, and it’s not as if the Steelers have consistently stopped people on defense. Also, the special teams have been comically bad at times this season, and they could be missing key coverage players such as Anthony Chickillo, Sammie Coates, Robert Golden and Vince Williams for this game because of injury. The Dolphins have big-play returners in rookies Kenyan Drake (who also could have a few plays on offense) and Jakeenan Grant (despite his penchant for fumbling), plus Landry if they need him. One or two game-changing plays on special games could tilt this game.

Keep in mind: This is the Dolphins’ first playoff game since the 2008 season, and since then the Steelers have played 10 postseason games — half of them at Heinz Field. Their two losses there this season with two the prospective Super Bowl favorites, the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots. The Dolphins will not have played in a game colder than 35 degrees at kickoff this season, but it’s expected to dip into the teens before game time on Sunday. Will the Dolphins be prepared?

OUTLOOK

The Steelers are getting healthy, which is a nice change for them after last season’s banged-up playoff run against the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. They come in rested and expect to have Green and defensive end Stephon Tuitt back, which should help immensely.

Clearly, the Dolphins do not arrive with as clean a health sheet. They’ll have to rely on what they have, and they’ve talked all week about winning the first matchup with a sense of desperation; don’t forget they were 1-4 at the time and given virtually no chance of winning that game. Sound familiar? It’s about how this one is viewed, with Vegas installing the Steelers as a 10-point favorite.

If Moore plays clean ball and can have the kind of third-down success (7-for-14) that the Tannehill-led Dolphins did last matchup, that’s a good sign. Ajayi won’t run for 204 yards and two TDs again, but consistently moving the chains would be nice. He’s been quite hot and cold (three 200-yard games, fewer than 80 yards rushing in eight of his 12 starts) and needs to show up for the Dolphins to win.

But out sense is that even if the Dolphins dominate special teams and win the turnover battle, and even if Suh has a monster game, the Steelers will just have a little too much juice in the end. If Maxwell can shadow Brown, that might keep things down a bit, but the Steelers are just the better team right now.

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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!

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