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Chase Watch: Barring Richmond craziness, it's down to McMurray vs. Newman

McMurray leads Newman, both here at Phoenix and in the points standings (Getty).
McMurray leads Newman, both here at Phoenix and in the points standings (Getty).

Be prepared to watch a lot of comparisons between Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman at Richmond on Saturday night.

With one race to go before the 2016 Chase starts, McMurray currently occupies the last spot in the Chase field via points. Newman is the first driver out of the Chase and seven points behind McMurray. 13 drivers have wins, so the top three drivers from this table will make it to the Chase assuming a winless driver doesn’t go to victory lane at Richmond.

[Related: Martin Truex Jr. wins Southern 500]

10. Chase Elliott, 659 points
12. Austin Dillon, 651
13. Jamie McMurray, 642
14. Ryan Newman, 635
16. Kasey Kahne, 598

(No. 11 Jimmie Johnson and No. 15 Kyle Larson both have wins)

Those point tallies may change before Richmond, however. Both Newman and Larson failed post-race laser inspection Sunday night. We’ve seen points penalties anywhere from 10 (Brad Keselowski after Michigan) to 15 (Matt Kenseth after New Hampshire) for laser inspection failure. Newman’s gap to McMurray could be 17 or more points because of Sunday night depending on what penalties NASCAR assesses.

Elliott and Dillon aren’t guaranteed berths into the Chase by any means, but they simply need to avoid disaster at Richmond to get into the Chase. Elliott finished 10th in Sunday’s Southern 500 while Dillon bounced back from an early pit road speeding penalty to finish 12th. We’re confident in their abilities to finish in the top 20 and get into the Chase.

[Related: Quick Takeaways from Darlington]

Newman stayed out on the race’s second-to-last caution Sunday night and the strategy netted him a top 10 finish. After restarting on the front row on that restart, Newman ended up finishing ninth. McMurray’s team missed a lug nut on one of the wheels when he pitted during that caution flag, though he came back to finish 15th; a net loss of six points to Newman.

It’s also worth noting that Newman lost 10 points earlier this year because of a penalty at Atlanta regarding the body mounts on the car. He’d be ahead of McMurray right now if it wasn’t for that Atlanta penalty.

Kahne, who finished seventh at Darlington, is mathematically unable to get into the Chase on points. He can make up the 44-point gap on McMurray (and the slightly smaller one on Newman) if he wins at Richmond and leads the most laps while McMurray finishes last. But Kahne’s in the Chase anyway if he wins, so the points discussion is worthless.

That’s why we think it’s pretty much down to McMurray and Newman. Who would you bet on?

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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!