Yahoo Sports Celtics offseason primer: Jaylen Brown’s future, Grant Williams, more
The Boston Celtics seemed set to be a title contender for a long period of time after a strong mid-season turnaround last year that resulted in an NBA Finals appearance. The team seemed unbothered by the unexpected coaching change during the regular season but it may have impacted them in the playoffs. While making the Conference Finals five times in the last seven seasons is a great accomplishment, they continue to fall short of their goal of winning a championship.
The Celtics shouldn’t get discouraged by this year’s results considering how strong the top of the Eastern Conference is. They still have one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the league, so they’ll be right back in the title mix next season without having to make significant changes. Their offseason will mostly revolve around long-term decisions on key players.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Boston Celtics.
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Luxury tax and second apron
The Celtics just finished the 2022-23 season with a $70 million luxury tax payment. Ownership has shown a willingness to spend after getting a taste of the NBA Finals and they will probably remain committed now that Tatum and Brown are expected to get massive new extensions.
The Celtics are set to enter the offseason roughly $4 million over the tax line and $11 million below the second tax apron with 13 players under contract. This is before the potential re-signing of Grant Williams, whose starting salary could put them over the second tax apron. In regards to the 2023-24 season, being over the second tax apron would eliminate access to the taxpayer mid-level exception, restrict them from adding veterans in the buyout market, and limit their incoming salaries in trades to 110 percent of the salaries they’re giving out.
There is a pathway for the Celtics to avoid the luxury tax this upcoming season and it could be worth seriously considering. They are in this position largely thanks to Al Horford taking a significant discount in his recently signed extension. Their simplest path at avoiding the tax would be by letting Williams go and dumping the $6.8 million salary of Danilo Gallinari, but such a move would hurt the backend of their roster.
The Celtics will almost certainly be taxpayers in 2024-25 if Jaylen Brown signs his supermax extension. That means if they remain taxpayers in 2023-24 as well, then they will enter the repeater tax starting in 2025-26. That will significantly raise their tax rates and that is also the first season tax rates will rise sharply starting at the third tax level (roughly $11 million over the tax line). The exact payroll they had for 2022-23 would equate to a $64 million higher tax penalty in 2025-26.
There’s a strong chance the Celtics are over the second tax apron in 2024-25, which is also the first season additional team-building restrictions will be implemented. Teams over the second tax apron won’t be able to take on more salaries than they’re giving out in a trade, aggregate players in trades, convey cash in trades, use existing trade exceptions from the previous season, or acquire a player under contract or generate a trade exception when sign-and-trading their own free agent to another team.
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Extension candidate: Jaylen Brown
Boston’s No. 1 priority this offseason will be extending Jaylen Brown long-term. After making 2nd Team All-NBA this season, he has qualified for a supermax extension. He will be eligible to extend with the Celtics during the 2023 offseason for up to five years, projected at $285.6 million. It would give him a starting salary of $49.2 million and pay him $65 million in his age 32 season.
Brown is entering the final campaign of the four-year, $106 million extension he signed in 2019. There has been a train of thought that Brown’s supermax eligibility could ultimately be what keeps him in a Celtics uniform because of the money he’d be passing up if he left. It’s roughly $100 million more than the standard maximum extension he could sign with the Celtics or another team, and $40 million more than the standard maximum contract Boston, could re-sign him to in 2024.
It goes without saying that alarm bells on Brown’s future will ring if he doesn’t extend with the Celtics this summer. But it seems like a strong likelihood that Boston will have both Brown and Jayson Tatum under contract for a long time. Speaking of which, Tatum also became supermax eligible by earning All-NBA honors this season. His is projected at five years, $295 million, but he can’t sign it until the 2024 offseason.
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Free agent: Grant Williams
Grant Williams is the most significant free agent from the Celtics this offseason. His role has fluctuated since Mazzulla took over but remains as effective on both ends of the court as last year. Despite seeing his role minimized for much of the playoffs, he still has positional scarcity favoring him in the free agency market.
According to HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto, executives believe Williams is worth $12-14 million annually. That would seem to be a realistic floor for him since most teams will be able to offer him that now that the non-taxpayer mid-level exception was raised to start at $12.2 million. Such a framework would put his annual salary on par with forwards like Kyle Kuzma, PJ Tucker, and Nicolas Batum. It wouldn’t be surprising if a young cap space team gives Williams an offer sheet for slightly more than the mid-level exception.
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Trade possibilities
This season could be Boston’s last chance to make a big trade before their payroll explodes and they’re subjected to the new second tax apron trade restrictions. They are well-positioned to make a significant deal with several starter-level players that many teams would covet. Their combination of players like Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, and Al Horford makes them one of the deepest teams in the league. Still, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to see what a combination of these players and draft equity can get them.
The Celtics haven’t made a first-round selection since Brad Stevens took over as president of basketball operations. He has been one of the most aggressive executives in the trade market who traded their three most recent first-round picks for Horford, White, and Brogdon, respectively. They don’t seem likely to slow down on trading their picks and they’ll be able to trade a maximum of four this season (2024, 2026, 2028, and 2030).
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2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 13
Guaranteed salaries: $168.1 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $4.3 million
Total salary: $172.4 million
Luxury tax space: $4.1 million above the tax
First apron space: $908,679
Second apron space: $11.4 million
Spending power:
Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
Justin Jackson trade exception: $1,836,090 (expires February 9, 2024)
Noah Vonleh trade exception: $505,239 (expires January 5, 2024)
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Jayson Tatum
2023-24 salary: $32,600,060
Remaining salary guaranteed: $104,545,020 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
2025-26 salary is a player option worth $37.1 million.
15 percent trade bonus currently worth $1.8 million.
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Jaylen Brown
2023-24 salary: $31,830,357
Remaining salary guaranteed: $28,508,929
Additional notes:
$3.3 million in likely incentives.
Extension-eligible during 2023 offseason for up to five years, projected at $285.6 million.
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Malcolm Brogdon
2023-24 salary: $22,500,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $45,000,000 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
Extension-eligible during 2023 offseason.
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Marcus Smart
2023-24 salary: $18,583,713
Remaining salary guaranteed: $59,280,854 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
$1 million trade bonus.
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Derrick White
2023-24 salary: $18,357,143
Remaining salary guaranteed: $36,428,572 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
$750,000 in likely incentives, $500,000 in unlikely incentives.
Extension-eligible during the 2023 offseason for up to three years, $122.8 million.
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Robert Williams III
2023-24 salary: $11,571,429
Remaining salary guaranteed: $37,285,713 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
$1.4 million in unlikely incentives.
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Al Horford
2023-24 salary: $10,000,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $19,500,000 through 2024-25
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Danilo Gallinari
2023-24 salary: $6,802,950 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $6,802,950
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2023-24 salary: $4,037,278
Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,037,278
Additional notes:
Eligible for rookie-scale extension during the 2023 offseason for up to five years.
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2023-24 salary: $3,500,000 (team option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
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Luke Kornet
2023-24 salary: $2,413,304
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary in non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date.
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Justin Champagnie
2023-24 salary: $1,927,896
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary in non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date.
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Sam Hauser
2023-24 salary: $1,927,896
Remaining salary guaranteed: $1,927,896
Additional notes:
2024-25 salary is a team option.
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Cap hold: $12,793,887
Type of free agent: Bird (restricted)
Additional notes:
Qualifying offer: $8,486,620.
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Blake Griffin
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
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JD Davison
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
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Mfiondu Kabengele
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
You can follow Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) on Twitter.
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