Watch live: Cardinals host Reds in Free Game of the Day

With the National League wild card race as tight as can be, the St. Louis Cardinals’ playoff hopes may depend solely on the arm of Mike Leake. If the 28-year-old hopes to keep the Cardinals in the hunt, he’ll have to do so against his former team, the Cincinnati Reds.

There will be no lack for narratives as Leake takes on his former club for the fourth time this season. Whether Leake can finally figure them out will be the focus of Yahoo Sports’ MLB Free Game of the Day on Wednesday. Leake and the Cardinals will take on Joey Votto and the Reds. The contest, which starts at 8:15 p.m. ET, can be streamed on Yahoo’s Sports Home, MLB index, video home and this very post. Local blackouts apply, per MLB rules.

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The Cardinals are hoping the fourth time is a charm for Leake. Since leaving Cincinnati, Leake has not experienced success against his former team. In three starts this season, the Reds have pounded Leake for 16 earned runs over 17 1/3 innings. He’s given up 24 hits, and has struck out just seven batters in those starts.

Thankfully for St. Louis, there’s no reason to think those struggles will continue. While it makes for a fun narrative to say Leake’s former team has his number, we’re talking about a three-start sample here. As his career 3.87 ERA with Cincinnati attests, Leake never had any issues pitching at the Great American Ball Park as a member of the Reds. There’s just no reason to think he suddenly lost that ability because he’s prepping for starts in the visitor’s locker room.

A bigger reason for concern might be Leake’s performance since coming off the disabled list. In his four starts since returning for a bout with shingles, Leake hasn’t pitched particularly well. During that period, Leake has a 5.95 ERA. He’s given up 29 hits and 13 earned runs over 19 2/3 innings. Only one of those four starts has produced a game score over 50.

With the Cardinals currently sitting a game behind the San Francisco Giants for the second wild card spot in the NL, now is the perfect time for Leake to put an end to both narratives. While there may be multiple reasons to think Leake will struggle during the start, the prevailing story surrounding the Cardinals the past few years has been the team’s ability to use devil magic to defy the odds. By that logic, Leake is definitely tossing eight scoreless innings Wednesday night.

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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at christophercwik@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik