Capitals vs. Penguins: 8 keys to victory in Stanley Cup Playoff series

(Ed. Note: Welcome to Round 2 coverage of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, where we flip the format and get right to the point with eight keys to each series. Enjoy!)

If the Washington Capitals are going to win the Stanley Cup, as so many pundits have predicted this postseason, then it has to happen like this, right?

It has to go through Pittsburgh. It has to have the tormented being their tormentors. It has to be Alex Ovechkin finally getting one over on Sidney Crosby.

And if anyone is going to prevent the Washington Capitals from winning the Stanley Cup, then it has to happen like this, right?

The Penguins eliminating the Capitals, again. The tormentors bullying the tormented again. Sidney Crosby continuing to keep Alex Ovechkin off the championship board.

It’s the best rivalry in the NHL.

On that note, here are 8 keys to victory for the Capitals and Penguins

1 – No Kris Letang

Let’s not dawdle here. This is the biggest change from last postseason’s six-game series win for the Penguins.

He had three points in the five games he played against the Capitals last postseason, but played north of 30 minutes in four of them. The best way to combat the Washington attack is to afford them little time in the attacking zone. Letang was great to that end last postseason. He was also a possession monster in the Penguins’ final two games of that series.

But he’s out for the season with a neck injury.

In the first round, the Penguins’ defensemen were all under 50-percent in Corsi at 5v5. This unit misses Letang significantly, and it could be an absence that tilts the series against the Capitals.

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2 – Braden Holtby vs. Marc-Andre Fleury

The Capitals’ goalie didn’t have his strongest series last season against the Penguins, and was outplayed by Matt Murray. He wasn’t a necessarily a liability, but Game 5 was the only one where Holtby truly backstopped his team to a win.

In the first round, Holtby was great when he needed to be, especially in their elimination game over the Toronto Maple Leafs. More efforts like that – 37 saves on 38 shots – in the second round, and the Capitals advance.

With Murray injured, Fleury backstopped the Penguins to a first-round series win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. He has the crease to start this series against the Capitals, and as usual that means we’re in for a rollercoaster.

Fleury was rock solid in Games 1 and 2, giving up one goal in each at home. In Games 3 and 4 on the road, he gave up nine goals on 71 shots, for an .873 save percentage. And then in Game 5, he stopped 49 of 51 shots, because of course he did.

There’s never a dull moment for the Penguins with Fleury in net during the playoffs, although they probably wish there were more of them.

3 – Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin

Again, not in the literal sense, because the time they share on the ice is usually less than most commercial breaks. But as usual, all eyes will be on the superstars who once game us the Double Hat Trick Game in their first epic playoff battle.

Crosby has seven points in five games, with two goals and five helpers. He’s turned Jake Guentzel into one of the postseason’s most surprising offensive leaders.

Ovechkin has three goals and no assists in the playoffs, scoring them over three straight games.

It’s always going to be Sid vs. Ovi when these teams meet. Although would anyone be surprised if we’re all talking about Malkin vs. Kuznetsov as the end of this?

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4 – Power Plays

The Penguins and Capitals are Nos. 2 and 3 in the postseason on the power play, with Pittsburgh going 5-for-15 and Washington going 5-for-17. That’s after being Nos. 3 and 4 in the regular season.

Will the power-play advantages even out in this series, or will one team heat up? Another consideration: The Capitals were shorthanded 272 times in the regular season, and the Penguins were shorthanded 257 times.

5 – An Education In Speed

The Capitals played a very fast-skating Toronto Maple Leafs team in Round 1. At times it appeared they labored to handle that speed, but the bottom line is that they did.

That’s promising for their matchup against the Penguins, considering how Pittsburgh’s speed was a game-breaker last postseason. If you want to project that the Leafs have prepared the Capitals for this series better than the Flyers did last playoffs, it’s a reasonable consideration.

6 – The Depth

Last season, the Capitals fell to the Penguins because Pittsburgh has incredible depth at forward and Washington’s third pairing on defense was devoured by them.

Capitals management made an effort to get deeper and get better, to the point where they added Kevin Shattenkirk to a fairly stacked defense.

From Japers’ Rink, on forward depth:

They were third in the League in goals-for during the regular season (without sacrificing a thing defensively) and had 11 forwards score double-digit goals, including a trio of 12-plus goal guys who formed a possession-dominant third line and another 30-plus goals from the fourth line. So yeah, I’d say mission accomplished there.

Will that depth show up for the Pens series? Tom Wilson’s (surprising) three goals were the only ones scored by a bottom-six forward against the Leafs, so they’ll need to do better than that. But if the regular season is any indication, there’s reason to believe that they will.

We shall see.

7 – The Capitals’ Sphincter

This is the part where we touch on the Capitals’ incredible inability to advance past the second round of the playoffs with Alex Ovechkin on their roster; a near decade of broken hearts, pulled out hair and general bizarreness that has cost coaches jobs and Washington fans hours of sleep.

Sometimes it’s a crushing defeat in a Game 7, and other times it’s a crushing defeat in an earlier game that leads to a series loss – witness the way the Capitals carried play in Game 3 against the Penguins, but couldn’t recover after giving up two first-period goals.

The way the Capitals closed out the Maple Leafs in Round 1 makes you think it could be different this time: The overtime win, avoiding a Game 7. Maybe, as coach Barry Trotz said, ever series is an education and the Capitals learned something here.

8 – Prediction

Capitals in six. Yep. Sure. Why not? This is the last hurrah for this group, with at least five significant free agents this season. So they go out with a bang, finally get one over on the Penguins … and then inevitably lose in the following round like if the Americans were shut out by Finland after defeating the Soviets in 1980. Such is Capitals.

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Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at puckdaddyblog@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.

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