Canada in tough against Sweden in world junior semifinals

Canada will have to bring its ‘A’ Game on Wednesday if they want to play for gold. To make it to Thursday’s gold medal game, they’ll have to knock off undefeated Sweden.

Unlike Canada, who have dealt with injuries to top line forward Mitchell Stephens and top pair defenceman Philippe Myers (still questionable for the semis), the Swedes (5-0) have played relatively unscathed through the tournament.

Sweden also has the luxury of playing with a powerhouse lineup, with defenceman Oliver Kylington (Calgary Flames) and forward Alex Nylander (Buffalo Sabres) on loan from the American Hockey League. The best players Sweden has to offer for the under-20 tournament are in Montreal. It’s no surprise then, to see Nylander leading the tournament in scoring with five goals and six assists in five games.

Looking at the tournament to date, Sweden has looked like the team to beat. One good thing for Canada entering their semifinal, is that they’ve faced tougher competition than the Swedes in Russia (5-3 victory) and Team USA (3-1 loss) which makes up the other semifinal. In Group A, the Swedes have had an easy time dispatching Switzerland, Denmark, Czech Republic and the relegation round-bound Finns.

Canada should be Sweden’s first big test, but comments like these from head coach Dominique Ducharme aren’t going to help. Why a coach would provide bulletin board fodder at this stage of the tournament is bewildering.

As Ducharme correctly points out, Sweden has gone an impressive 40-0 in round robin play in the last 10 years, but only has one gold medal to show for it in 2012. They have, however, won four silver medals and a bronze in that same span.

Offensively, the Swedes are outscoring the opposition 26-9 and as mentioned have the tournament’s top scorer in Nylander. Canada isn’t far off that pace with a goal differential of plus-15 (26-11) and they match up pretty evenly in terms of firepower up front – especially now that Stephens is healthy and there seems to be some chemistry on the top line between top scorer Dylan Strome (8 points in 5 games) and New Jersey Devils prospect Blake Speers.

As in any big game, it’s going to come down to goaltending and Canada’s net woes are nothing new. At this point, it’s almost expected to lament their shaky netminding. Ducharme has yet to name his starter for the game. At this point, neither Carter Hart (who started against Russia and Latvia) nor Connor Ingram (starts against Slovakia, USA and Czech Republic) has looked stellar. Both have had their rocky moments and no matter who Ducharme puts in net against the Swedes, if they can’t come up with the big saves, then Canada’s going to be playing for bronze Thursday afternoon. Ingram has a slightly better goals against average (2.01, .866 save percentage) with one extra start.

Felix Sandstrom has played the bulk of the games for Sweden and should get the call against Canada. In four games with Sweden the 19-year-old has a .916 save percentage and a 1.75 goals against average.

Defensively Canada will miss Myers contribution on the blueline if he’s unable to play. He had been on the top D pairing alongside Ottawa Senators prospect Thomas Chabot. Against the Czech’s Kale Clague took Myers’ spot in the rotation and quarterbacked Canada’s second unit power play. Chabot has been Canada’s most consistent player – both offensively and defensively – and has been the player to really set the tone for the team when needed.

On the Swedish blue line, the aforementioned Kylington is the team’s anchor. Unlike Canada, which only has Chabot as a returning defenceman, Sweden has a number of veterans on the blueline including Jacob Larsson (Anaheim Ducks) and Gabriel Carlsson (Columbus Blue Jackets). Even 16-year-old Rasmus Dahlin, a top prospect for the 2018 NHL draft, has been a pleasant surprise for the Swedes.

For Canada to be successful against the Swedes, they’re going to have to set the pace early. In their quarter-final against the Czech Republic, the first period was sloppy and tentative – and they can ill afford to give Sweden that kind of leeway.