Bubble breakdown: Michigan, Michigan State take down Big Ten's top two to near lock status

What has happened to Michigan?

Three weeks ago, that was the pertinent question. The Wolverines lost at home to Ohio State, their second-straight defeat, and a team that had returned most of the pieces from an NCAA tournament team a year ago looked destined for the NIT.

Fast forward to the present, and Michigan isn’t just on the bubble; after an electrifying 82-70 win over Purdue, their second over a Big Ten favorite in two weeks, the Wolverines have skipped off the bubble and likely into the NCAA Tournament.

John Beilein’s team has won five of six, and has looked extremely impressive in the process. The fun began with a 29-point pounding of Michigan State. It picked up steam with a win at Indiana and a home victory over Wisconsin. The latest performance — 1.32 points per possession against a top-15 team — was evidence of Michigan’s rise, from a mediocre team in a mediocre conference to an outstanding offense capable of shooting over, passing around and punishing some of the nation’s best defenses.

Michigan certainly looks NCAA tournament worthy; barring a collapse, its résumé will too.

And then a day after the Wolverines all but secured their bid, Michigan State matched its in-state rival with a 84-74 victory over Wisconsin to move similarly close to locking up its invite to the Big Dance. The injury-hit Spartans have languished on the bubble for much of the season, but now look well on their way to the program’s 20th-straight NCAA tournament appearance.

Here’s a look at other bubble teams who have helped or hurt their causes on the second to last weekend of the regular season.

Weekend Bubble Winners

Michigan State (18-11, 10-6, KenPom 50, RPI 47): Sparty is in good shape. Tom Izzo’s team has now won four of its last five and six of its last eight. It also now has six wins over the Big Ten’s top eight after a rough non-conference season that yielded nothing of note outside of a victory over Wichita State. Even if a win over Wisconsin isn’t what it was three weeks ago, it was a huge step toward the NCAA tournament.

Middle Tennessee State (25-4, 15-1, KenPom 41, RPI 32): The Blue Raiders won at UAB Sunday, making a 17-1 conference record and 27-4 overall mark a strong probability heading into the Conference-USA tournament. Could they be at-large candidates even with a loss in the tournament? Maybe. They have non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, at Ole Miss, at Belmont, and on a neutral site over UNC-Wilmington, another strong mid-major. Three of their four losses are bad, but a respectable non-conference schedule should have them in the mix.

Indiana (16-13, 6-10, KenPom 49, RPI 88): The Hoosiers stayed alive with a last-second win over Northwestern. They still have a lot more work to do, however, and probably need at least one of their two upcoming road games, at Purdue and at Ohio State, plus at least one Big Ten tournament win. After all, they’ve still lost seven of their last nine.

Michigan (19-10, 9-7, KenPom 28, RPI 53): In addition to recent wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin and now Purdue, the Wolverines have November neutral site wins over Marquette and SMU. Both how aged well. Michigan isn’t quite secure yet, but one more victory — at Northwestern or Nebraska, or at the Big Ten tournament — would probably be enough.

Providence (18-11, 8-8, KenPom 56, RPI 55): Four wins in a row, all over for KenPom top-40 teams, for the Friars after Saturday’s triumphant battle against Marquette. Providence has gone from a bubble afterthought to “in” 15 days away from Selection Sunday.

Rhode Island (19-9, 11-5, KenPom 54, RPI 47): Rhode Island resuscitated its March hopes by battling back from an early deficit against VCU for a crucial 69-59 win, the Rams’ third straight victory. A home loss to Fordham 10 days ago still stings, but Rhode Island has at least taken the necessary steps since then to keep itself in contention. Its remaining two games, at St. Joe’s and home against Davidson, are more or less must-wins.

Dayton (23-5, 14-2, KenPom 33, RPI 23): The Flyers came back to force overtime at Davidson Friday night, then won in OT. They’re not yet a lock because of the lack of quality wins, but one more win would probably be enough.

Illinois (17-12, 7-9, KenPom 62, RPI 56): With four victories in its past five games including Sunday’s over Nebraska, Illinois has improbably played its way into contention for an NCAA bid. The Illini swept Northwestern and beat Michigan and VCU, but they’re also under .500 in the Big Ten, dropped a pair of games to Penn State and lost to Winthrop.

Other bubble winners: California (beat Oregon State Friday); Wichita State (won at Missouri State); Seton Hall (won at DePaul); Illinois State (won at Northern Iowa); Vanderbilt (beat Mississippi State); Virginia Tech (won at Boston College); Arkansas (won at Auburn); Houston (won at Memphis)

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Weekend Bubble Losers

Xavier (18-11, 8-8, KenPom 38, RPI 21): Could Xavier be in trouble? Possibly. After falling to Butler Sunday, the Musketeers have lost five in a row, are 1-6 against the top half of the Big East, and are 3-8 against non-bottom-three Big East teams. Their best non-conference win came at home against fringe bubble team Wake Forest. And after losing star guard Edmond Sumner for the season, Xavier has been trending in the wrong direction. It’s probably time to start worrying at least a bit.

Northwestern (20-9, 9-7, KenPom 36, RPI 45): Northwestern fans are in full-on freak out mode after a loss to Indiana. The Wildcats led the Hoosiers by two with under 10 seconds remaining, then fouled Thomas Bryant on a dunk for an and-one. Northwestern has now lost five of seven, and its final two games are against Michigan and Purdue. It is still on the right side of the bubble, but needs another win to stay there.

USC (21-8, 8-8, KenPom 68, RPI 32): The Trojans blew a late lead at Arizona State on Sunday night, a bad loss that could force the selection committee to take a closer look at their surprisingly thin resume. There’s two outstanding home wins over UCLA and SMU and … uh … well, they won at Texas A&M back when that seemed significant. USC’s two final games of the regular season are at home against dreadful Washington and Washington State. The Trojans would be wise to win both.

Kansas State (17-12, 6-10, KenPom 30, RPI 61): Oklahoma 81, Kansas State 51. Oof. The Wildcats have lost five of their last six, eight of their last 10, and have fallen out of the tournament field as things stand right now.

TCU (17-12, 6-10, KenPom 41, RPI 56): The Horned Frogs are they only Big 12 bubble team that hasn’t beaten one of the conference’s top three teams (Kansas, West Virginia and Baylor). A few weeks ago, they entered a five-game stretch that presented them with three opportunities to get one of those wins; it also included a road game at Iowa State and home date with surging Oklahoma State. Even a 1-4 record might have kept TCU on the right side of the bubble. Instead, Jamie Dixon’s team lost all five, and has a lot of work to do.

Marquette (17-11, 8-8, KenPom 33, RPI 69): The Golden Eagles won at (pre-Mo Watson injury) Creighton and upset Villanova in back-to-back late-January games. Since, they’ve gone 3-5, with two of the wins coming over DePaul and St. John’s. After Saturday’s loss to Providence, Marquette finds itself in some trouble. The good news: The final week of the regular season presents opportunities to atone for bubble sins, a road game at Xavier and home matchup with Creighton.

Clemson (14-14, 4-12, KenPom 37, RPI 59): Stop us if you’ve heard this before: The Tigers lost another close game in ACC play, falling at home to No. 19 Florida State, 76-74. Amazingly, this was Clemson’s ninth league loss by six or fewer points. Clemson’s NCAA hopes were already on life support entering Saturday, and with three straight losses and six losses in its last seven games — and with only NC State and Boston College left on the regular-season schedule — anything short of a ridiculous run in the ACC tournament will likely keep the Tigers from dancing this March.

Other bubble losers: Pittsburgh (lost to North Carolina); Tennessee (lost at South Carolina); Texas Tech (lost at Oklahoma State); VCU (lost at Rhode Island); Syracuse (lost at Louisville); Georgia Tech (lost to Notre Dame)