Bubble breakdown: Missed opportunities abound in the ACC

Three weeks and one day before the NCAA men’s basketball selection committee reveals its 68-team field for the 2017 NCAA tournament, no conference in America houses more intriguing candidates for that 68-team field than the ACC.

And at around 1:45 ET on Saturday afternoon, three of those candidates were immersed in battles — battles that, if they were to end victoriously, could have drastically changed the discussions the committee will have on Selection Sunday. Clemson trailed Miami by two late in the second half in Coral Gables. Wake Forest was knotted up with Duke at halftime in Durham. Virginia Tech led Louisville by one on the road.

The Tigers and Demon Deacons in particular have two of the trickiest résumés in college basketball, in part because both had been in similar situations before, and in part because on almost all those occasions, both had come up short. Clemson had been within a few possessions of potential tournament teams in the second halves of eight other conference games; they had lost seven of them. Wake had taken this same Duke team to the wire in Winston-Salem three weeks prior; but it had coughed up a double-digit lead.

Both desperately needed to reverse the trend on Saturday. Neither could.

Clemson couldn’t quite get over the hump down south, falling 71-65 to the Hurricanes. Wake Forest came up just short at Cameron Indoor Stadium, 99-94. Virginia Tech, despite shooting 17 for 26 from 3, couldn’t hold off Louisville and lost, 94-90. Three massive opportunities fell by the wayside.

In fact, missed opportunities have been the story of Saturday, Feb. 18 on the bubble. Texas Tech had a final-possession shot in overtime to pick up its second top-10 upset of the week, but ended up succumbing to West Virginia in double OT. Seton Hall was overwhelmed by Villanova at home.

Here’s a look at all the action on the fringes of the NCAA tournament field on the third-to-last Saturday of the 2016-17 regular season:

Saturday’s Bubble Winners

VCU (22-5, 12-2, KenPom 41, RPI 25): We begin on Friday night, and we begin in the A-10, where the conference’s co-leaders have begun to pull away. VCU picked up an important road win at Richmond that, barring a collapse over the final four games of the regular season, should secure the Rams an at-large bid.

Wichita State (25-4, 15-1, KenPom 13, RPI 43): The Shockers beat Northern Iowa, which doesn’t even resemble a résumé-defining win. But at this point, it’s clear that Wichita State’s bubble case, should they lose in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, won’t be based on big wins. It will be based on number of wins. And if that’s not enough, maybe the committee will have to factor in the eye test, or metrics like KenPom that go beyond wins, losses and strength of schedule, and also factor in margin of victory. Maybe they’ll go beyond “who’d you play, who’d you beat and where did you beat them?” and add “how much did you beat them by?” In that sense, the Shockers’ dominant second-half and 73-44 victory over the Panthers constitutes a successful afternoon.

Miami (18-8, 8-6, KenPom 35, RPI 50): The Hurricanes should be in, but haven’t entirely cleared the bubble. A win over Clemson at home doesn’t put them over the top either. But avoiding bad losses will be enough for Jim Larranaga’s club, and that’s exactly what Miami did Saturday.

Pittsburgh (15-12, 4-10, KenPom 70, RPI 59): A couple weeks ago, Pitt looked like one of the worst, if not the worst, teams in the ACC. And the Panthers still might be. But they knocked off Florida State Saturday, and now own wins over Marquette (neutral), Maryland (road), Penn State (neutral), Virginia (home), Syracuse (home) and the Seminoles (home). They really only have two bad losses, to Duquesne and at NC State. Is that not a résumé at least worthy of NCAA tournament consideration? Pitt hasn’t been discussed at all as a bubble team. It might be time to open up those discussions.

Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-7, KenPom 21, RPI 28): The Cowboys got to .500 in the Big 12 with a win over Oklahoma, and have now won eight of their last nine. Their turnaround after an 0-6 start in conference play has them on the brink of locking up a bid.

Marquette (16-10, 7-7, KenPom 35, RPI 81): Marquette is right on the fringe of the field, which made a 22-point win over Xavier a massive one. The Golden Eagles now have wins over three of the top four teams in the Big East, and Saturday’s blowout of the Musketeers was the most convincing of the three.

Georgia Tech (16-11, 7-7, KenPom 78, RPI 82): Games don’t get more bubblicious than Georgia Tech’s Sunday night home tilt against Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets held off the Orange’s late charge with the aid of a very questionable illegal screen call. In doing so, more than any other team this weekend, they helped their own cause while harming that of a direct competitor.

Minnesota (20-7, 8-6, KenPom 39, RPI 23): The Gophers need overtime, but they eventually overcame Michigan to get their fifth win in a row, and 20th on the season. They probably need two more wins, Big Ten tournament included, to lock up a bid. At this point, though, one more might even be enough.

Other bubble winners: Kansas State (won at Texas); Tennessee (beat Missouri); Dayton (beat St. Bonaventure); Alabama (beat LSU); Rhode Island (won at George Mason); Middle Tennessee State (won at Marshall); Northwestern (beat Rutgers)

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Saturday’s Bubble Losers

Clemson (14-12, 4-10, KenPom 37, RPI 51): The Tigers just can’t stop narrowly missing opportunities. Other ACC bubblers followed in their footsteps Saturday, but Brad Brownell’s team has been doing it throughout conference play. Clemson lost in overtime to North Carolina, by five points at Notre Dame, by four points to Virginia, by one point to Virginia Tech, by one point to Syracuse, and by two points at Duke, and now by six points at Miami on Saturday in a game that was tight throughout. If the Tigers had one two of those seven games, they’d be in the field as of now. Because they haven’t, they’re probably still on the outside looking in.

Wake Forest (15-12, 6-9, KenPom 31, RPI 38): After a 99-94 loss at Duke, Wake Forest is 15-12 overall. It is 1-12 against the KenPom top 50. Those numbers, in conjunction with one another, tell the story of Wake Forest’s season, and summarize the discussions the committee will have about the Demon Deacons in a few weeks. They’ve been leading, tied, or within one point in the final minute of both meetings with the Blue Devils this season, but have come away empty handed.

Virginia Tech (18-8, 7-7, KenPom 46, RPI 35): Unlike the two ACC teams above them on this list, the Hokies aren’t desperate for a signature win; they already have a couple, both at home, over Duke and Virginia. Buzz Williams’ team is still in good shape.

Seton Hall (16-10, 6-8, KenPom 59, RPI 40): The Pirates sit squarely on the bubble, and had a chance to move into a significantly more comfortable position Saturday. They got Villanova shorthanded, without starting center Darryl Reynolds, and therefore without a match for their own talented big man, Angel Delgado. But they fell flat, and were torn up by the Wildcats, 92-70. Seton Hall has both Xavier and Butler on its remaining slate; a win in one of those two games might be necessary.

Texas Tech (17-10, 5-9, KenPom 36, RPI 86): In a way, the Red Raiders were playing with house money. Their upset of Baylor on Monday was enough of a bubble boost to fill a full week, if not two or three weeks. But, that being said, Texas Tech is arguably still on the outside looking in at the field of 68. A road win over West Virginia would have changed that, and the Red Raiders had the Mountaineers on the ropes, leading in overtime, and then with the ball and the shot clock turned off. But they couldn’t close, and now must recover in 48 hours for a crucial home date with Iowa State.

California (18-8, 9-5, KenPom 49, RPI 31): The one really costly loss of the weekend so far came on Friday night. Cal lost in Palo Alto to Stanford, a team that came into the rivalry game 12-13, 4-9 in the Pac-12 and outside the KenPom top 100. That could end up being a damaging loss for the Golden Bears.

Michigan State (16-11, 8-6, KenPom 54, RPI 42): The Spartans not only lost to Purdue, they might have lost starting guard Eron Harris for an extended period of time. Harris went down in agony with an apparent right knee injury, and had to be stretchered off the floor at Mackey. The injury is more concerning than the loss.

TCU (17-10, 6-8, KenPom 42, RPI 49): Losing at Iowa State isn’t a bad look, but with Kansas and West Virginia next up on the Horned Frogs’ schedule, a five-game losing streak and a 6-10 conference record heading into the final week of the regular season seem probable. TCU could be in trouble.

Syracuse (16-12, 8-7, KenPom 46, RPI 83): The Orange have now lost three in a row, and have Duke and Louisville up next. What once looked like a very clean and convincing bubble case now has a few warts.

Michigan (17-10, 7-7, KenPom 27, RPI 52): D.J. Wilson’s last-second 30-footer gave Michigan five extra minutes to try to pick up a pivotal road win at Minnesota. The Wolverines came up just short, though, and, even after a win over Wisconsin on Thursday, are still straddling the line between in and out.

Utah (17-10, 8-7, KenPom 50, RPI 80): How to miss the NCAA tournament, explained — Step 1: Play your way onto the bubble. Step 2: Lose to 4-23 Oregon State. Ugh.

Other bubble losers: Georgia (lost to Kentucky); Houston (lost to SMU); Georgetown (lost at Creighton)

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