Bryce Harper, Nats at odds over $400M contract demands

Start putting away extra money in your piggy banks now, MLB teams, because Bryce Harper is going to be a free-agent after 2018 … probably. Harper is reportedly seeking a record-breaking 10-year, $400 million deal, and that might be outside what the Washington Nationals are willing to pay for his services, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Nightengale’s report mentions a “high-ranking Nationals executive” who believes Harper is looking for a deal in that range. Because of that, the club is preparing for Harper to leave once he’s eligible for free agency.

Some of those concerns may be premature, however. While the Nationals may be preparing for life without Harper, his agent, Scott Boras, confirmed to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan that the two sides haven’t even discussed a long-term deal.

On one side, you have a team executive suggesting the club won’t pay Harper that much. On the other side, you have an agent saying those conversations haven’t even happened yet. Most anyone can see thinking about whether Harper walks in free agency is premature. If for no other reason than both sides have to live harmoniously with each other the next two years.

Considering all that, here’s what we’re left with: Bryce Harper is probably looking for a record-breaking contract in excess of $400 million when he hits free agency. That’s a significant amount of money, and it could lead to Harper leaving the Nationals when the time comes.

When broken down that way, none of this should come as a surprise. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen exorbitant figures linked to Harper’s free agency. Actually, we’ve seen bigger numbers in the past.

And while it’s easy for many to look at that $400 million price tag and completely lose their minds, it’s not entirely out of line either. As things currently stand, Harper will be 26 when he hits free agency. Very few players hit the market at such a young age, and the only ones who do get there are the ones deemed talented enough to reach, and then stay in, the majors at 18 or 19. This is Alex Rodriguez territory.

Rodriguez, as you’ll remember, hit the market as a 25-year-old and received a 10-year, $252 million deal in 2000. Harper will be a year older, and doesn’t play shortstop, but it’s not hard to look at that figure, factor in inflation, and come up with something close to $400 million. It also helps that Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million extension in 2014. Stanton is a tremendous offensive player, though he’s never had a season as impressive as Harper’s 2015. On top of that, Stanton’s deal was an extension. Extensions are typically cheaper than free-agent deals because a player is limited to talking with just one team. When all 30 clubs have a shot at signing a guy, prices tend to skyrocket.

You can point to Harper’s poor 2016 as evidence that he’s not worth that type of deal, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Harper hit just 243/.373/.441, with 24 home runs, over 627 plate appearances last year, but there was evidence he was limited by an injury most of the season. Since there’s no reason to believe he simply can’t hit after putting up a Bondsian .330/.460/.649 line at age-22 in 2015, we should expect Harper to improve quite a bit over the next two years. If he can do that, $400 million is definitely in reach.

That price tag also explains why the Nationals might be worried about losing Harper in free agency. Sure, Harper might be a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but that’s a lot of money. Any team would be concerned about committing that much to one player going forward. But we’re also talking about something that’s two years away. A lot can change in that time, and perhaps the Nationals will feel better about a deal, or deal something done before Harper reaches free agency.

Until then, though, it’s perfectly reasonable for the Nationals to start preparing for life without Harper now. It’s incredibly logical, actually. With every day that passes, he inches closer to free agency, making it more likely he’ll leave. Of course, the Nationals aren’t going to adjust their team assuming Harper signs long-term. That hasn’t happened yet. They need to prepare for the worst. Every other team in baseball would do the same facing this type of uncertainty.

That’s why the club’s approach this winter makes sense. While the Nationals haven’t gone out and made huge moves just yet, they’ve been mentioned as a major player for Andrew McCutchen, Chris Sale and some of the available relievers on the market. The front office realizes that they may only have two years left with Harper, and wants to put together the best possible club to win while he’s still there. If they can sign Harper long-term and extend that window, great. If not, at least they went all-in when they had him.

Aside from the weird timing of this story, there’s nothing all that controversial here. A great player wants a lot of money, and his team isn’t sure they can afford him. When put that way, this seems normal. They’ll have two years to figure that out.

But when you’re dealing with Bryce Harper and record-breaking contracts, it’s tough to expect people to be reasonable.

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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at christophercwik@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik