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If the Browns truly believe in Mitchell Trubisky, taking him No. 1 is the right move

Over the last few days before the NFL draft, there’s been a growing buzz that goes against what everyone figured was the one safe pick in everyone’s mock draft: The Cleveland Browns might pick North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky No. 1 overall.

Many NFL reporters, including ESPN’s Adam Schefter, have said people around the league believe the Browns could pass on Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett, the consensus top prospect for months, to take Trubisky. Highly respected NFL writer Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, one of the first writers to be heavily invested in draft coverage, predicted the Browns would take Trubisky in his mock draft. The closest the Browns have come to saying what they’ll do is a report from NFL Network’s Michael Silver, which said general manager Sashi Brown decided on the pick two weeks ago.

Mitchell Trubisky is expected to be selected early in the first round of the NFL draft. (AP)
Mitchell Trubisky is expected to be selected early in the first round of the NFL draft. (AP)

That the Browns, of all teams, could be thinking about taking Trubisky – try to find anyone who has him rated as the top player in this draft … you’ll even have some argument if he’s the top quarterback – has drawn some laughter and the familiar Browns jokes. While it seems like the “Trubisky at No. 1” story is more pre-draft fantasy than reality, perhaps it’s true. It wouldn’t be our first absolute draft shocker, though draft night surprises are rare at No. 1.

And we have to consider this: If the Browns take Trubisky, they might be right.

Let’s put aside the Browns’ mistakes of the past and whatever the groupthink on Trubisky has been. If the Browns’ front office, which has been put together to think outside of the box, watches Trubisky’s tape and believes he can make multiple Pro Bowls (and this isn’t a panic move forced by team owner Jimmy Haslam), then he should be the first pick. Cleveland has struggled for years to find a quarterback, and without a competent quarterback it’s nearly impossible to have success in the NFL. Garrett would have to be Bruce Smith to second-guess taking a regular Pro Bowl quarterback over him. And even if Garrett is guaranteed a Hall of Fame career, you still might take the Pro Bowl quarterback. Quarterback rules all in the NFL. Just check the salaries.

Trubisky isn’t a future top-five quarterback. You’d probably have to search a while to find someone who does. The Browns should be using picks Nos. 1 and 12 to take Garrett and another elite prospect, then start stitching Sam Darnold jerseys for the 2018 draft. And while the Browns’ history, especially with quarterbacks, doesn’t give them much benefit of the doubt, perhaps they’re ahead of the curve on Trubisky. One NFL personnel executive told ESPN’s Todd McShay that Trubisky reminds him of Aaron Rodgers (!) coming out of college. And if you thought you were getting 2005 Aaron Rodgers with Trubisky, this wouldn’t even be a debate. And while we can argue that the Browns should take Garrett, then use their surplus of picks to trade up and draft Trubisky, we have no idea what the San Francisco 49ers want to do at No. 2. For all we know, they’ll be thrilled to take Trubisky to start their rebuild and wouldn’t move the pick. Again, if the Browns truly think Trubisky is special, they shouldn’t gamble on getting him later.

If the Browns shock the world and go with Trubisky first overall on Thursday night (again, I do not think that will be their pick, but there’s enough smoke that it can’t be ruled out), and they’re doing so because their front office is convinced he’s a future star, it might not be the wrong pick. They’ll be mocked because they won’t be going along with the consensus, but maybe for once, the Browns are ahead of the curve and we don’t realize it yet.

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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