Brad vs. the Book: Take road warrior Virginia, points

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out this weekend’s selections below:

Kansas (18-2) at Kentucky (17-3)

Blue bloods have been the center of conversations throughout the college basketball world. UCLA, though struggling of late, is a popular pick to reach the Final Four. Duke, despite its problems, continues to have bandwagoners. But it’s Kansas and Kentucky that have mostly led the charge among iconic programs.

The Wildcats are still licking their wounds after stumbling in Knoxville earlier in the week. Largely unopposed in SEC action, they’ve steamrolled most opponents emerging victorious by an average margin of 23 points. They force numerous turnovers (20.5 TO%), fly high in transition and aggressively, and successfully, attack the tin inside (56.0 2PT%). Freshmen sensations Malik Monk, Da’Aaron Fox and Edrice Adebayo are one dynamic trio. Equally adored by computer algorithms (No. 2 in KenPom), they possess few weaknesses. Long-distance shooting – only 23.9 percent of their points (No. 318 in the country) are scored from threes – is their only chink in the armor.

Well-roundedness is paramount in beating Kentucky. Limiting transition opportunities, standing tall inside and executing smoothly on the offensive end is the only way to topple it. In other words, near perfection is necessary. That’s what UCLA, Louisville and Tennessee accomplished in their respective dispatchings of Big Blue. Kansas, a sharp, battle-tested club with terrific veteran leadership, coming off its own hard-to-swallow road loss at West Virginia, certainly has the ingredients.

Numerically speaking, the clash is evenly matched. Both are outstanding defensive teams that also crash the offensive glass and score at will in the paint. Ultimately, whoever strokes it smoothest from outside will determine the outcome. The Jayhawks, who feature four dead-eyes from distance in Frank Mason III, Lagerald Vick, Devonte’ Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Each shoot 39-plus percent from three), have enough firepower to keep it close, despite it’s absent depth down low in wake of Carlton Bragg’s suspension.

Rupp will be rockin,’ but Kansas won’t go quietly.

Fearless Forecast: Kentucky 87 Kansas (+7) 82

Virginia (16-3) at Villanova (19-2)

Lost in the topsy-turvy week, Virginia notched arguably the most impressive win of any team anywhere. The Cavaliers, small underdogs on the road, kicked down the doors of the Joyce Center and extinguished the fiery hands of the Fighting Irish. In that game, Notre Dame was held to 0.859 points per possession, its lowest output since getting gutted by North Carolina in the ACC tournament LAST YEAR. Exchanging pleasantries with Villanova, a team that faired very differently at Marquette last Sunday, UVA is faced with a much taller task.

The Cavs’ formula is the same as it’s always been under Tony Bennett – slowly squeeze opponents to death with a half-court centered style and suffocating defense. They’re well-coached, proficient on both ends (top-16 in offensive and defensive efficiency), make few mistakes (15.8 TO%) and are occasionally lethal from three (40.8 3PT%). London Perrantes, Mariol Shayok and Devon Hall are an unselfish, highly productive trio. It’s why they’re an absurd 6-1 in true road games this year.

The defending National Champs are again a frontrunner, and for good reason. Josh Hart, my early pick for National Player of the Year, is a knight in shining armor. He plays big, slashes to the cup with ease, guards tenaciously and skies for boards. There may be no player with a more complete game and tougher mentality than the senior. Flanked by sharpshooter Kris Jenkins and emerging stud Jalen Brunson, the ‘Cats are a wonderfully harmonious, though undersized, team.

Critical to where bettors should place their hard-earned dollars is paint performance. Hall, Isaiah Wilkins and off-the-bench contributor, Jack Salt, give the Cavs a post advantage. Exploit it and challenge Hart’s dribble penetration and they could steal a W. But in a contest that will be decided by late freebies, I believe Villanova barely prevails.

Fearless Forecast: Villanova 60 Virginia (+4) 58

Indiana (14-7) at Northwestern (17-4)

Over the course of five months a pair of well-known Chicago sports curses may no longer exist. The Cubs did their part polishing off Cleveland in early November. Now, it’s Northwestern’s turn.

The Wildcats continue to log milestone after milestone. Last week, for example, they registered their first win against Ohio St., in Columbus, since the Jimmy Carter administration. Winners in six of their first eight conference games – their best start since the 1943-1944 season – they are not only well on pace to erase the NCAA Tournament hex, they are legitimate Big Ten title contenders. Whether inside Welsh Ryan or away, they’ve handled business.

Northwestern’s M.O. is bottling up opponents by employing hard-nosed half-court man defense. It’s conceded a mere 0.954 points per possession this season. Not overlooking their offensive contributions, Vic Law and Friends share the sugar beautifully, splash over 36 percent from three and rarely commit turnovers. That, mis amigos, is a formula for success.

As for the Hoosiers, their fall from grace has been rather precipitous. A fixture in top-25 popularity polls prior to Big Ten play, they’ve stumbled out to a .500 start in league play. Horrendous defense – and that’s putting it mildly – combined with turnover problems and the devastating loss of sophomore enforcer OG Anunoby have taken the air out of the balloon. Thursday against Michigan, arguably Indiana’s most rancid performance of the season, it surrendered 1.546 points per possession. It has enough potency on offense to compete, but without any direction on D, the snowball will only build.

Slam the sledgehammer. Northwestern sprinkles a little more pixie dust on its magical season.

Fearless Forecast: Northwestern (-6.5) 79 Indiana 72

Other Leans: Penn St. (-2.5), Nevada (-3.5), Butler (-9.5), Oregon (-6.5), Georgia Tech (+6.5), Wake Forest (+3.5), Florida (-1)

Parlay Play: Penn St. (-2.5), Oregon (-6.5), Florida (-3)

Year to date (From Twitter): 124-120-2 ATS

Want to throw elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.