Brad vs. the Book: Jayhawks reach new heights in Morgantown

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Tuesday’s selections below:

Kansas (18-1, 6-11 ATS) at West Virginia (15-4, 7-7)

Death, taxes, Trump exaggerations, Tom Brady Super Bowl appearances and Kansas Big 12 titles – these, my friends, are life’s greatest consistencies.

In a game that’s sure to reward the victor with the upper conference hand, the Jayhawks are, surprisingly, a rather hefty underdog. Undoubtedly one of the nation’s top contenders, they’ve, as usual, displayed poise, steady execution and balance – they rank top-30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Thanks to its intelligent backcourt, consisting of preeminent leader Frank Mason and sharpshooter Devonte’ Graham, freshmen phenom Josh Jackson and the much improved, and impossible to text name, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Kansas is on pace to secure its 13th-consecutive league title. Pure dominance.

West Virginia is a stiff competitor that feeds off chaos. On the year, the Mountaineers have forced turnovers on a Division-1 high 31.1 percent of opponent possessions. Lose composure, and they can rip off a 10-0 run in the blink of an eye. Nathan Adrian, Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles thrive on mistakes. Breaking the press and maintaining a halfcourt pace are essential to extinguishing their relentlessness. It’s easier said than done, but as Oklahoma recently proved in Morgantown, it’s far from impossible to achieve.

Ultimately, Kansas’ judiciousness with the basketball (17.6 TO%), precise outside shooting (41.7 3PT%) and stout D squashes the gnats. Yes, full disclosure, KU has failed to cover in six of its last eight games, but confidently lay the points.

Fearless Forecast: Kansas 84 (+4) West Virginia 82

Purdue (16-4, 11-6 ATS) at Michigan St. (12-8, 9-10)

Plop a quarter in a slot machine, press the button and pray the jackpot siren blares. Given Purdue’s mercurial nature, that’s how most action seekers view the wonderfully talented, yet mostly unreliable, program.

Unmistakably, the Boilers, on paper, have the look of a NCAA Tournament force. They defend stoutly, possess a pair of redwood trees (Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan) and net a robust 1.17 points per possession. However, unfortunate lapses on offense, likely due to erratic guard play, have made them extremely hard to pinpoint. When Dakota Mathias, PJ Thompson and Carsen Edwards fire on all cylinders, they steamroll opponents, as witnessed last Saturday in a 25-point drubbing of Penn St. Conversely, when off, they open themselves up to defeat or, for the purposes of this column, missed covers.

What Purdue version shows up in East Lansing is anyone’s best guess. At first blush, it has an enormous advantage on the glass and possesses the defense needed to neutralize Miles Bridges’ off-the-charts athleticism. But can one really trust that to happen?

Though this year’s Sparty product is in unfamiliar bubble territory, it has enough talent, direction and defensive acumen, instilled by the venerable Tom Izzo, to climb into the Field of 68. For that to occur, Michigan St. must accumulate quality wins, and quickly. Ranking No. 88 in offensive efficiency, it must also fend off prolonged offensive droughts. Tuesday presents a unique opportunity.

If the Spartans want to boost the resume, Nick Ward has to stay out of foul trouble and point man Tum Tum Narin needs to attack Matt Painter’s bigs to soften the interior and open the perimeter for marksmen Matt McQuaid and Eron Harris. Because of Purdue’s enigmatic persona and what will surely be a boisterous Izz-Zone, look for MSU to escape with a close, and well-timed, victory.

Fearless Forecast: Michigan St. 67 (+2.5) Purdue 66

Virginia (15-3, 10-6 ATS) at Notre Dame (17-3, 9-5)

Full admission, in the 10-plus years covering college basketball, I’ve been unfairly critical of Notre Dame teams under Mike Brey. Though dynamite putting ball into basket, previous Irish iterations were putrid on defense, leaving yours truly to declare them ‘avoidable.’ In many ways, they mirrored this year’s UCLA team – extremely gifted on offense, but positively dreadful bodying up.

The Golden Domers are once again one of the most prolific scoring teams in the nation totaling an obscene 1.205 points per possession, much of that production coming from beyond the arc (41.0 3PT%). Steve Vasturia, VJ Beachem and Matt Farrell can seriously stroke it. But the real reason why they’re in the running for an ACC title is how staunchly they’ve defended. Last year, the Irish ranked No. 158 in defensive efficiency. This year, they’re No. 62. Throw in floor general Farrell’s leadership, dishing/driving skills and toughness, and this team has the ingredients necessary to return to the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight.

Virginia, wonderfully coached by Tony Bennett, is, as always, a nightmare to score against. Methodical and tenacious, the Cavs’ pack-line defense has surrendered a mere 0.901 points per possession, the seventh-lowest mark in the nation. Due in large part to London Perrantes’ smoothness and Marial Shayok’s versatility, it also ranks top-20 in offensive efficiency. But if UVA owns a vulnerability it’s clamping down along the arc. Scoring inside on UVA is usually an exercise in futility, but just over one-third of opponent points have come from made threes. Notre Dame, which usually rains money balls, is a very difficult matchup.

Smooch the shamrock, dice rollers. The Irish, an impeccable 12-0 at home this season and who’ve topped the spread in six-straight contests, have strong odds of covering, and convincingly. Hammer happily.

Fearless Forecast: Notre Dame (-1) 69 Virginia 64

Other Leans: Wisconsin (-14), Akron (-3.5), Pittsburgh (+7), Kansas St. (+4.5)

Parlay Play: Michigan St. (-2), Notre Dame (-1), Wisconsin (-14)

Year to date (From Twitter): 118-103-2 ATS

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