Brad vs. the Book: Don't zig on the 'Zags

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out this weekend’s selections below:

Gonzaga (25-0) at St. Mary’s (22-2)

Duke/North Carolina, which delivered, as always, Thursday night, may be college basketball’s biggest rivalry, but west of the Mississippi, Gonzaga/St. Mary’s is another enormous clash full of resent and bitterness.

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Some will argue the 2006 and 2013 teams were his finest, but in this observer’s opinion, this is Mark Few’s best ever ‘Zags team. It ranks top-four nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, possesses depth, guards tenaciously, throttles opponents outside and showcases the ‘Polish Shaq,’ Przemek Karnowski, a double-wide seven-footer with soft touch around the basket and terrific passing skills. SNL’s ‘Stefon’ would agree, the Bulldogs have it all. It’s no wonder why they’ve flattened opponents by an average margin of 27.3 points per game in West Coast play.

St. Mary’s, meanwhile, is no slouch. The Gaels play a calculated half-court oriented game that features stiff man-on-man defense on one end and a highly-effective, smooth-passing offense on the other. Jock Landale and Cal Hermanson are one of the more pestilent inside-outside combinations at the collegiate level. In rarefied company, they are one of eight teams in the country that ranks top-15 in offensive and top-45 in defensive efficiency. They also rebound (No. 1 in DR%) and shoot the three (39.2 3PT%) extraordinarily well.

When these familiar foes first battled mid-January in Spokane, Gonzaga, thanks to its prolific offensive execution (1.34 pts/poss), exhausted the Gaels midway through the second half sprinting to a 79-56 victory. The rematch is sure to be more hotly contested. The environment inside cozy McKeon Pavilion (3,500 person capacity) will be raucous, however, the Bulldogs, even with a less than 100 percent Nigel Williams-Goss, simply have too many weapons to disengage. Post presences Karnowski, Jonathan Williams and Zach Collins tilt the scales and keep the ‘Zags unblemished.

Fearless Forecast: Gonzaga (-4.5) 69 St. Mary’s 64

Villanova (23-2) at Xavier (18-6)

When Earth is inevitably leveled by a catastrophic asteroid strike, the Xavier Musketeers may be the only people to survive the near mass extinction event.

After losing Edmond Sumner to an ACL injury and Myles Davis to a program exit, Chris Mack’s resilient bunch are, almost unbelievably, breathing down the neck of Big East leader Villanova. Opportunistic freshmen Tyrique Jones and Quentin Goodin have picked up the slack, evidenced in their combined 31 points last week in a tide-turning win at Creighton. Their execution combined with RaShid Gaston’s interior scrapping and Trevon Bluiett’s occasional unconsciousness (See his 40-point performance against Cincinnati) explain why the X-Men are indeed a legit threat.

On the other side of the court, Villanova hasn’t skipped a beat from last year’s stirring National Championship run. Josh Hart, a Wooden Award candidate, is one of the toughest off-the-dribble attackers in the nation. He slashes to the basket, routinely draws contact and frustrates the opposition. Flanked by much improved sophomore Jalen Brunson, sharpshooter Kris Jenkins and swingman Mikal Bridges, Hart and Co. are a well-rounded group. Only ‘Nova and Gonzaga tuck inside the top-five in offensive and top-20 in defensive efficiency.

Due to Xavier’s strength around the basket, look for Jay Wright to employ a 2-3 zone and force the Musketeers to beat the ‘Cats via the three, a scheme that should prove to be successful. ‘Nova, 5-2 in true road contests this season, adds another notch to the collar.

Fearless Forecast: Villanova (-4) 73 Xavier 65

Cincinnati (22-2) at SMU (21-4)

For all intents and purposes, the American Athletic Conference is a two-bid middling ‘major,’ a league on par with the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley. Though not the most favorable description, Cincinnati and SMU are formidable representatives, equipped with the necessary personnel to carve out a deep NCAA tournament run.

The Mustangs are verifiable stallions across the board. They pass the rock crisply (top-10 in A/FGM), cash along the perimeter (four players shoot 40-plus percent from three) and stand tall on the glass (39.4 OR% ranks No. 5). Most impressively, they feature arguably the most versatile trio in the country. Semi Ojeleye, who racked up 30 points and 10 boards at Temple, Shake Milton and Sterling Brown regularly color in dots on shot charts. Each nets at least 41 percent from distance, 43 percent inside the arc and 76 percent at the charity stripe. Post force Ben Moore and glue guy Jarrey Foster can also inflict damage.

Cincinnati, which hasn’t lost since early December, is also outstanding in several facets. It suffocates opponents in the half-court (0.92 points per possession allowed), packs the paint on both ends and rarely commits turnovers. Kyle Washington, Jacob Evans, Gary Clark and dime dropper Troy Caupain (12:1 AST:TO split last two) were forged from steel. Dudes are tough.

Last month, the Bearcats, largely due to their 12 made threes, clipped SMU at home 66-64. However, the Mustangs exact revenge the second time around. Their prowess on the offensive glass and multi-dimensional scorers are just too problematic.

Fearless Forecast: SMU (-5) 64 Cincinnati 57

Other Leans: Florida (-12.5), Duke (-12), Kansas (-4), Ohio St. (+7), Florida St. (+1.5), Ole Miss (-4), USC (+2.5), Syracuse (-1.5)

Parlay Play: Gonzaga (-4.5), Florida (-12.5), Villanova (-4)

Year to date (From Twitter): 172-166-4 ATS

Want to throw elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.