Brad vs. the Book: Bears to earn their honey against Kansas

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out this weekend’s selections below:

Kansas (23-3) at Baylor (24-4)

Thirteen. That’s the number of consecutive conference titles Kansas, almost unbelievably, is gunning for. Think about it. The last time Bill Self’s club failed to finish atop the Big 12, in 2001, freshman Josh Jackson, then barely four-years old, was rocking the rim on his Little Tikes hoop. Pure dominance.

On offense, Kansas has orchestrated a symphony of efficiency in league action. Floor general Frank Mason, double-doubles machine Josh Jackson and arc assassin Devonte’ Graham have worked in lockstep. Collectively, the Jayhawks have netted over 41 percent form distance and averaged 1.21 points per possession, the sixth-best mark nationally. Its D, however, has slumped a bit, checking in at eighth-best in conference. But Kansas’ incredible resolve is why it’s won in close games. Not convinced? You obviously were bar-hopping during its historic comeback against West Virginia.

Baylor, meanwhile, is arguably the most decorated club in college basketball. It boasts a 10-2 record against the RPI top-50, logging noteworthy out-of-conference wins against Oregon, Xavier, Michigan St. and Louisville. Though turnovers have occasionally plagued the Bears, their ability to generate second-chance opportunities (No. 8 in OR%) and stand tall on defense (0.90 pts/poss allowed) are why they’re in the No. 1 seed conversation. They have dropped three of their last five by a total of 13 points, but Jonathan Motley is a matchup problem for KU’s thin front.

Scott Drew’s kids are the last major obstacle for KU. Secure a victory and a No. 1 seed, along with another conference trophy, is a foregone conclusion. The Jayhawks took Round 1 73-68 earlier this month. In the rematch, however, Baylor’s size and three-point strikes from Manu Lecomte prevail.

Fearless Forecast: Baylor (-2) 75 Kansas 70

Virginia (18-7) at North Carolina (22-5)

What’s higher: John Wick kills or Virginia losses? The answer is obvious, but the gap is tightening.

UVA is in the midst of its worst stretch since 2013. On the wrong side of the ledger in four of its last six, it’s dipped to sixth in conference, a full two games behind frontrunner North Carolina. Uncharacteristically, its pack-line defense has untethered surrendering 1.15 points per possession in those losses. It’s normally well-oiled offense has also bogged down (1.06 pts/poss eighth in ACC). London Perrantes isn’t the problem, it’s the inconsistency of Virginia’s supplementary options. Isaiah Wilkins, Marial Shayok and Devon Hall have been largely unreliable of late.

Conversely, Carolina, though it’s played questionable D, is surging. Long, athletic and very active on the glass, it leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, averages 1.22 points per possession and drills over 37 percent from distance. Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and 6’11” frosh Tony Bradley are a terrible matchup for a Cavs team that rarely crashes the offensive glass.

In the end, tempo could decide the outcome. UVA is the tortoise; UNC the hare. Ultimately, the Heels’ interior bulk and outside marksmanship should wear the visitors down.

Fearless Forecast: North Carolina (-3) 73 Virginia 67

Maryland (22-4) at Wisconsin (21-5)

The Terps are arguably the most overlooked club in the country. Their unkind ranking (No. 31) among number crunchers like KenPom and affiliation with the blah Big Ten have many people looking the other way, an eyeless viewpoint. They own the same number of RPI top-50 wins as UCLA and have recorded an obscene 7-1 mark in true road games. Still, few believe Mark Turgeon’s bunch are a second weekend NCAA Tournament team.

Sunday, Maryland has a solid shot of gaining the respect it deserves.

Melo Trimble is the spark that lights the fire. His variable scoring abilities, floor command and eagle-eyed vision are why he’s one of the country’s top point guards. Off a season-high 32 points at Northwestern, he is escalating his game at the most opportune time. Complemented by Anthony Cowan and combo swingmen Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter, Trimble has numerous weapons to feed. It’s no wonder why the Terps have tallied at least 1.25 points per possession in three of their last four wins.

At the current moment, Wisconsin is a team in turmoil. Bronson Koenig, who wore street clothes in Thursday’s loss at Michigan, is dealing with a leg strain. Without his leadership and box score contributions, Bucky tends to wander aimlessly on offense, as its 0.94 points per possession output in Ann Arbor proved. Equally concerning, the Badgers’ defense has crumbled, evidenced in their allowed 53.1 effective field-goal percentage versus Northwestern and Michigan.

Unless Damonte Dodd stays out of foul trouble and hangs tough inside, Ethan Happ gives Wisky an enormous paint advantage. However, how impactful Koenig performs, if he suits up at all, is what will likely determine the victor. Weighing the particulars and remembering Maryland toughness away, the road warriors are the proper play.

Fearless Forecast: Wisconsin 67 Maryland (+6) 63

Other Leans: Miami (-3), Wichita St. (-17.5), Seton Hall (+6.5), Georgia (+7), Oregon (-12.5), Purdue (-9), Gonzaga (-31), Nevada (-10), USC (+12)

Parlay Play: North Carolina (-3), Miami (-3), Wichita St. (-17.5)

Year to date (From Twitter): 182-170-4 ATS

Want to throw elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.