Bowl Projections: It's a messy race for the final New Year's Six spot

NC State’s loss to Wake Forest in Week 11 has thrown the bowl world into chaos.

OK, that’s an exaggeration. We have a very good idea which eight or nine teams have a shot at the College Football Playoff. But with 12 New Year’s Six bowl spots available, there are more bowl spots than there are deserving teams at this point.

The current teams in the top 10 of Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff rankings are pretty much locked into New Year’s Six Bowls. UCF is the prime candidate for the Group of Five’s spot and if the Knights lose in the next couple weeks, Utah State or someone else will take their spot.

That leaves us looking for one more team. And it’s not a fun crop of teams to choose from.

There’s three-loss Florida, who came back to beat South Carolina at home on Saturday. There’s three-loss Texas, though the Longhorns’ inclusion would mean some bowl shuffling if the Big 12 champion doesn’t make the playoff. Same goes for Iowa State, who could join the conversation with a win at Texas on Saturday.

Kentucky, at No. 17, doesn’t really have a shot and neither do any of the teams behind it. The best candidate could be No. 12 Syracuse, assuming the Orange beats Notre Dame on Saturday. If Syracuse pulls the upset, the Orange not only jump into that final New Year’s Six spot but create some intrigue in the College Football Playoff picture.

Bowl Projections

New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 15)
Florida Atlantic vs. Nevada

Cure Bowl (Dec. 15)
Tulane vs. Arkansas State

Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 15)
Fresno State vs. Cal

Camellia Bowl (Dec. 15)
Northern Illinois vs. Appalachian State

New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 15)
Louisiana Tech vs. Troy

Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18)
Memphis vs. Florida International

Frisco Bowl (Dec. 19)
Houston vs. BYU

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20)
South Florida vs. Miami

Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 21)
Marshall vs. Buffalo

Potato Bowl (Dec. 21)
Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 22)
Army vs. Cincinnati

Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22)
SMU vs. Utah State

Dollar General Bowl (Dec. 22)
Ohio vs. Georgia Southern

Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 22)
UAB vs. Hawaii

First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26)
North Texas vs. Arizona

Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26)
Wake Forest vs. Purdue

Cheez-It Bowl (Dec. 26)
Baylor vs. Arizona State

Independence Bowl (Dec. 27)
Virginia Tech vs. Middle Tennessee State

Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 27)
Pitt vs. Michigan State

Texas Bowl (Dec. 27)
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

Music City Bowl (Dec. 28)
Iowa vs. NC State

Camping World Bowl (Dec. 28)
Boston College vs. Iowa State

Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28)
San Diego State vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28)
Texas vs. Washington

Belk Bowl (Dec. 29)
Virginia vs. Missouri

RedBox Bowl (Dec. 31)
Maryland vs. USC

Military Bowl (Dec. 31)
Temple vs. Georgia Tech

Liberty Bowl (Dec. 31)
Auburn vs. Texas Tech

Holiday Bowl (Dec. 31)
Penn State vs. Stanford

Gator Bowl (Dec. 31)
Syracuse vs. South Carolina

Sun Bowl (Dec. 31)
Duke vs. Utah

Outback Bowl (Jan. 1)
Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1)
Northwestern vs. Mississippi State

NEW YEAR’S SIX

Peach Bowl (Dec. 29)
UCF vs. Georgia

Orange Bowl (Dec. 29) [CFP semifinal]
Clemson vs. Notre Dame

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29) [CFP semifinal]
Alabama vs. Michigan

Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1)
Florida vs. West Virginia

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Washington State vs. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1)
Oklahoma vs. LSU

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Nick Bromberg is a writer for Yahoo Sports.

Follow @NickBromberg on Twitter

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