Bluffers’ Guide to the Premier League Weekend: The killer stat that gives Leicester the edge in the title race

As the top four prepare for the ‘Premature Play-Off’ Bluffer gives us the lowdown and reveals why Leicester could actually win the Premier League.

No need for any Bluffer to apologise for concentrating on the top four teams in the Premier League this weekend, because they are all playing each other.

This mathematical coincidence, a kind of absurdly early play-off, is a rare event indeed: this is only the sixth such occasion since the Premier League’s inception, and the first for eight years.

Easy points are available for Bluffers who can name the four teams who made up the competitive quartet on the most recent previous occasion, on March 23 2008; slightly less easy for those who can recall the finishing order that season.*

Back in the present day the pursuing pack are all working out how best to hunt down Leicester City and Bluffers should arm themselves with arguments for and against a Leicester victory away at 3rd place Arsenal.

In favour of Arsene Wenger’s men, their Premier League record against this opposition at both the Emirates Stadium and Highbury is formidable: they have won their last eight straight home games against the Foxes.

Never, though, have they faced a Leicester side in this kind of form (nor has anyone else – there has never been a Leicester side in this kind of form). And Arsenal have a terrible record against Premier League leaders: in their last 11 matches against BPL top dogs, Arsenal have won only once, drawn four times and lost on half a dozen occasions.

The prolific Jamie Vardy is obviously the player that any of Leicester’s opponents fear the most but Claudio Ranieri’s team have proved on numerous occasions that they can plunder goals from all directions with their lightning counter-attacking style. Arsenal’s best defence on Sunday may be not to lose the ball in the first place: but against that Bluffers could mention the killer stat of one of Leicester’s many unsung heroes: ball-winning midfielder N’golo Kante has an amazing 103 interceptions in just 25 league games.

Both teams’ keepers have had remarkable seasons – expected of Petr Cech, who has a dozen clean sheets for Arsenal, while this has been Kasper Schmeichel’s breakthrough season with 8 clean sheets for Leicester. No question, though, that Schmeichel would be the happier of the two with a 0-0 draw on Sunday.

Arsenal are perhaps perceived as Leicester’s strongest challengers but their north London rivals Spurs currently hold second place and will be looking to close the gap when they visit Manchester City.

Bluffers may like to pitch this one as a shoot-out between two prolific strikers; Spurs’ Harry Kane (“He’s one of our own”) with 15 goals this season despite a slow start, and City’s Sergio Aguero, who has 14 goals from just 18 appearances in an injury-truncated campaign.

The balance tips in the Englishman’s favour on shooting accuracy, with 64% of his efforts on target compared to Aguero’s 60%, but the City man is more efficient, averaging a goal every 95 minutes that he spends on the pitch, against Kane’s more leisurely 147 minutes.

In this area the man between the sticks for Spurs may have the edge: Spurs’ Hugo Lloris has the Premier League’s best minutes-per-goals-conceded ratio, letting one in only every 120 minutes.

There is one more startling statistic that may prove crucial as the finishing line approaches, and that relates to the number of games still to be played by each team.

If the top four remain in all the competitions which they are currently contesting, Tottenham Hotspur will have 28 more matches this season, Manchester City 27, Arsenal 26 and Leicester… just 13. That is surely the most compelling argument of all for a Leicester City Premier League title.

* March 23 2008: Man Utd (1st at the time) 3, Liverpool (4th) 0; Chelsea (3rd) 2, Arsenal (2nd) 1. Finishing order 2007-08: 1st Man Utd; 2nd Chelsea; 3rd Arsenal; 4th Liverpool.