Big East primer: Surprises, disappointments, tiered rankings and more

January is just around the corner. Conference play is finally here. And that means it’s time to reassess college basketball’s top teams and players, as well as its most competitive leagues, as the season kicks into gear. We’ll highlight surprises, disappointments, and player and freshman of the year candidates before ranking teams by tiers and making one bold prediction for the next two-and-a-half months.

Our second of six conference primers looks at the Big East, which comprises much more than just the defending national champs:

Biggest surprise: Creighton

There were preseason murmurs that the Bluejays could be up to something. But unbeaten heading into conference play? That’s what you call exceeding expectations. The integration of Kansas State transfer Marcus Foster and redshirt freshman Justin Patton has been seamless, and with outside threats up and down the roster, Creighton has the nation’s best three-point percentage and a top-10 offense. Seven regulars are shooting above 40 percent from deep; four are hitting at least half of their long-range attempts. Greg McDermott’s team will be tested more in the Big East, however.

Biggest disappointment: Georgetown

The Hoyas have two notable victories: over out-of-sync Oregon and at suddenly struggling Syracuse. They also, however, lost at home to Arkansas State, and were blown out by Oklahoma State. John Thompson III missed the postseason altogether last year for the first time at Georgetown, and is trying to avoid missing consecutive NCAA Tournaments for the first time since he arrived in Washington D.C. in 2004. He’s got a job on his hands too; this Hoyas team lacks the top-end talent that Thompson had throughout much of his first decade in charge.

Player of the Year favorite: Josh Hart, SF, Villanova

Hart has evolved from a do-it-all guy to a do-it-all-really-really-well guy, to the point that, statistically, he’s already the runaway favorite for national player of the year. The 6-foot-5 senior has improved almost every aspect of his offensive game, including his passing (22.4 assist rate, up from 12.4), and is as consistent a lockdown defender as there is in the conference. Hart even saved his four best non-conference performances for Villanova’s four most difficult games: He averaged 29.3 points per game in wins over Purdue, Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Temple.

Freshman of the Year favorite: Justin Patton, C, Creighton

Patton wasn’t on many radars heading into November. But after redshirting last season due to injury, the 7-foot center has been one of the most efficient offensive players in the nation. His effective field goal percentage is an almost unfathomable 78.6 percent, and he’s shown some freakishly guard-like skills in the open floor. When watching him, you also get the feeling that he still has acres and acres to grow. In the short term, it’ll be interesting to see how he copes with the physicality of the Big East.

BIG EAST TIERS

TIER 1: THE INCUMBENT

1. Villanova

The Wildcats are the best team in college basketball right now, and have given no reason to believe they’re liable to relinquish that title anytime soon. They’ve won 18 games in a row going back to last year’s national championship run, and have won 109 since the start of the 2013-14 season. That run includes a 48-6 mark in the Big East. The frightening thing, at least for the rest of the conference, is that this year’s squad might just be the best of the most recent four. At minimum, it’s the clear-cut favorite for the Big East crown.

TIER 2: THE CHALLENGERS

1. Creighton

2. Butler

3. Xavier

All three of these teams are good enough to beat Villanova on a given night, but probably not quite good enough to unseat the reigning champs over 18 games. Creighton can match the Wildcats offensively, but not defensively. Butler is extremely well-coached, and its frontcourt is awesome, but the Bulldogs lack length and athleticism in the backcourt. Xavier has a trio of talented wings, but didn’t look all that cohesive in November and December.

TIER 3: THE PACK

1. Seton Hall

2. Georgetown

3. Marquette

4. Providence

Providence probably doesn’t belong here, especially after losing to Boston College, but it doesn’t belong down in the fourth tier either. Its Tier 3 companions, however, all look like legitimate bubble teams. Khadeen Carrington and Angel Delgado are fringe all-conference players for Seton Hall. Marquette has its best team yet under Steve Wojciechowski despite losing Henry Ellenson to the NBA. Georgetown could play its way into the conversation too.

TIER 4: THE STRAGGLERS

1. St. John’s

Chris Mullin is struggling to get the Red Storm back to relevance. They did beat Syracuse by 33, but also lost to LIU Brooklyn and Delaware State.

TIER 5: DEPAUL

1. DePaul

When you get an entire tier created just for you, you know things aren’t going too well.

Bold prediction: Xavier finishes outside the top four

The Musketeers aren’t the same team they were a year ago, and the list of simmering problems is longer than you might expect. Unless a pair of freshmen steps up, there’s not much depth, and the team’s three guards are all playing more than 84 percent of available minutes. Frontcourt scoring, or a lack thereof, is troublesome, and could dip even further in Big East play. And as a result, the offense just doesn’t seem quite as balanced as it was in 2015-16; Xavier’s team assist rate is down, while its turnover rate is slightly up. If one of the league’s top four teams is going to slip, it’ll be the Musketeers.

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More conference primers: Big Ten | ACC