An early look at summer salary-cap situations: The West

The Vertical Front-Office Insider Bobby Marks, a former 20-year executive with the Nets, looks ahead to the summer of 2017 and the early cap projections for teams in the West.

East early summer salary-cap projections

Welcome back, luxury tax and full mid-level exception.

The rise in the salary cap last summer all but eliminated both cap mechanisms, with only two teams – the Clippers and Cavaliers – falling into tax territory. By comparison, seven teams were in the luxury tax the previous season.

The mid-level exception, a tool teams use to sign players in free agency when they are over the cap, wasn’t needed in many cases and the room mid-level exception was used instead.

After last summer’s big spending and with a new collective bargaining agreement in place, the luxury tax will become relevant once again.

West teams such as the Clippers, Golden State, Portland and even Oklahoma City could join East clubs Cleveland, Washington and Milwaukee as potential tax teams next season.

While the teams hovering over the tax will face roster restrictions, the summer of 2017 could be best represented by rebuilding teams selling the future to sign free agents.

Here’s an early look at each Western Conference team’s cap situation for this summer.

SITTING ON CAP SPACE

Denver
The Nuggets will add two first-round picks (their own and Memphis’) to a roster that returns 14 players.

The Nuggets, currently $20 million below the salary cap, could create an additional $20 million in room if Danilo Gallinari opts out of his contract and the non-guaranteed contract of Mike Miller is waived.

L.A. Lakers
Los Angeles has four players on rookie contracts – D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. – which will allow the Lakers to enter free agency with cap space and flexibility.

The Lakers’ $20 million in projected cap space could grow to $31 million if Nick Young opts out of his contract and reserve Tarik Black is waived before July 4.

Minnesota
A franchise built around foundation pieces Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine will have a projected $22.3 million in cap space this summer.

The room takes into account the removal of Nikola Pekovic’s $11.6 million salary, which can occur beginning Jan. 31 if his injury is deemed career-ending.

An additional $11.7 million in room could be created because of the $7.6 million free-agent hold of Shabazz Muhammad and the $4.1 million non-guaranteed contract of Jordan Hill.

Phoenix
The Suns’ roster and cap situations are fluid.

Buried in the bottom of the West and headed to the lottery for the seventh consecutive season, the Suns currently have $13.6 million in cap room for next season.

With Alex Len’s $12 million cap hold and the uncertain future of Brandon Knight, Phoenix could see that room grow as July approaches.

CAP SPACE OR RETAINING OWN FREE AGENT

Dallas
Dirk Nowitzki, 38 and in his 19th season in the league, has a $25 million team option that will dictate the Mavericks’ cap space and flexibility.

With $27 million cap holds for Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut likely coming off the books, Dallas will only have $4 million in room until a decision is made on Nowitzki.

New Orleans
The Pelicans will need to make a decision on point guard Jrue Holiday, who is in the last year of his contract.

New Orleans could have $20 million in cap space but that would come at the expense of Holiday.

Sacramento
Projections in Sacramento are fluid based on Rudy Gay’s injury Wednesday night.

Gay was set to opt out of a $14.2 million contract for next season before preliminary reports indicated a torn left Achilles’ tendon.

If Gay doesn’t opt out, Sacramento could still have roughly $25 million in cap space.

However, that room would come at the cost of waiving Arron Afflalo ($1.5 million guaranteed) and releasing the cap holds of free agents Ben McLemore, Darren Collison and Omri Casspi.

One benefit for Sacramento is DeMarcus Cousins’ still-reasonable $18 million salary, which could double in 2018-19.

Utah
The priority for the Jazz this summer will be retaining some core pieces: free agent George Hill and Gordon Hayward, who has a player option.

Though the Jazz will likely have $66 million in guaranteed contracts once Hayward opts out, the cap holds of both Hill and Hayward will push the Jazz over the salary cap.

The Jazz will also lose $1 million in cap space if Rudy Gobert earns a spot in the All-Star game. Gobert has All-Star bonuses in his contract, as well as a $500,000 bonus if he were to be named to the All-Defensive team.

The bonuses are part of the rookie extension signed in October, and although Gobert would not receive the bonuses from the Jazz this season, his salary will increase next season because the bonuses would be deemed likely.

Utah will also have two first-round picks, the $8.2 million mid-level exception and Bird rights on Joe Ingles and Shelvin Mack to work with in the off-season.

STUCK IN-BETWEEN

Houston
The James Harden renegotiation last summer and the additions of Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon in free agency have the Rockets at $88 million in guaranteed contracts for 2017-18.

Houston, sitting right at $8 million in cap room, could see its cap space increase to $13.6 million if its free-agent cap holds are released and K.J. McDaniels is not brought back.

Houston does have the expiring contracts of Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley and reserve Corey Brewer, which total $20 million.

SITTING ON THE SIDELINES

Memphis
The Grizzlies will need to figure out the price for veteran Zach Randolph and starter JaMychal Green.

If the free agents are let go, Memphis would only have $7 million in cap room to find a starting power forward and backup.

Because Green (restricted) and Randolph have Bird rights, Memphis can exceed the cap to bring both back.

Memphis has $93 million in guaranteed contracts.

San Antonio
Never discount the Spurs when it comes to creating cap space.

The Spurs have entered July the past two years with little room, but ended up signing LaMarcus Aldrige and Pau Gasol.

San Antonio has $93 million in guaranteed contracts, including the player options of Gasol, David Lee and Dewayne Dedmon. That total does not include the cap holds of Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills and restricted free agent Jonathon Simmons.

STARING AT THE LUXURY TAX

Golden State
The Warriors will likely start the summer under the salary cap but their payroll will probably swell to $130 million-plus by the time free agency ends.

The Warriors could have cap space, but that room would be carved out for Kevin Durant if the All-Star opts out of his contract.

The combined salaries for Durant and free agent Steph Curry could be $72 million next season.

Durant’s decision will have an impact on reserves Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.

If Durant were to opt in to his $27 million deal for next season, it would give the Warriors the flexibility to retain both reserves.

L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have $108 million in guaranteed salaries and that number will grow if Blake Griffin and Chris Paul opt out of their contracts.

Signing both players to max deals would have the Clippers right at $129 million and that does not factor unrestricted free agent J.J. Redick.

Already a repeater tax team, the Clippers could see a tax bill close to $100 million in addition to possibly $150 million in salaries if all three key free agents are brought back.

Oklahoma City
The Thunder have been focused on building through the draft and making shrewd trades to acquire young assets that can be future building blocks.

Now with $106 million in salaries because of the Russell Westbrook renegotiation and rookie extensions for Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo, management’s philosophy will be tested in retaining the franchise’s own free agents.

Similar to the summer of 2015, when bringing back Enes Kanter put Oklahoma City in the luxury tax, a similar fate could occur because of restricted free agents Andre Roberson and Joffrey Lauvergne.

Portland
A year after signing restricted free agents Allen Crabbe (matched offer sheet), Meyers Leonard and Mo Harkless, the free-agent addition of Evan Turner, and C.J. McCollum’s rookie extension, the Trail Blazers’ salaries will balloon to $127 million.

Now with the pending restricted free agency of starter Mason Plumlee, the Trail Blazers will have to face a potential high luxury tax or look to move salary to gain flexibility.

Outside of Plumlee, the Trail Blazers’ offseason likely will be limited to their two first-round draft picks.

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