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AccuScore: Projected statistical leaders for 2012

Jonathan Lee

AccuScore provides baseball predictions and projections by calculating the probability teams have of winning each game, their division and making the playoffs. Using projected starting lineups, baseball predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, 10,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all baseball and sports predictions.

The full opening day for about half of major league teams is Thursday. AccuScore has run full season simulations for every game producing projections for each team and player. Some of the results are expected, like the Phillies, Yankees and Rangers leading the way for team success and stars like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera leading individually. Below AccuScore has forecasted the top 10 leaders in several statistical categories for the 2012 seasons.

Batting average

  1. Miguel Cabrera, DET – .345

  2. Ryan Braun, MIL – .321

  3. Joey Votto, CIN – .314

  4. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS – .312

  5. Joe Mauer, MIN – .311

  6. Robinson Cano, NYY – .310

  7. Paul Konerko, CHW – .309

  8. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS – .309

  9. Starlin Castro, CHC – .309

  10. Jose Reyes, MIA – .308

Last season, 26 players qualifying for the batting title managed to hit .300 or better. AccuScore projects just 18 full-time players to break that barrier.

It's no surprise that Miguel Cabrera leads the way with a forecasted average of .345. The now third-baseman has hit at least .324 in each of the past three seasons, including a career-high of .344 in 2011. Defending National League MVP Ryan Braun is projected to hit .321, a slight downturn from a year ago when he hit .332. Joey Votto is in line to challenge Braun for the NL MVP award with his projected .314 average.

Home runs

  1. Jose Bautista, TOR – 44.3

  2. Albert Pujols, LAA – 37.7

  3. Prince Fielder, DET – 33.7

  4. Mark Teixeira, NYY – 33.3

  5. Paul Konerko, CHW – 33.2

  6. Curtis Granderson, NYY – 32.3

  7. Mark Reynolds, BAL – 31.3

  8. Nelson Cruz, TEX – 30.7

  9. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA – 30.6

  10. (tie) Dan Uggla, ATL – 30.1

  11. (tie) Miguel Cabrera, DET – 30.1

The projected home run leaders feature all the names one would typically expect: the back-to-back reigning champ, the best right-handed hitter of this generation, two Yankees, two Tigers, a few steady veterans, and one up-and-coming star.

Jose Bautista has led the major leagues over the past two seasons hitting a combined 95 home runs. It's no surprise he is projected to lead the way once again with 44.3 dingers, but the margin might be. Albert Pujols is forecasted to be second with 37.7 home runs, 6.6 fewer than Bautista. Tigers Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera are projected for a combined 63.8 home runs. Paul Konerko has toiled in obscurity for the White Sox averaging 33.4 homers over the past eight seasons. He is projected for another 33 this season.

Runs batted in

  1. Paul Konerko, CHW – 107.4

  2. Jose Bautista, TOR – 104.9

  3. Robinson Cano, NYY – 104.2

  4. Miguel Cabrera, DET – 104

  5. Albert Pujols, LAA – 103.6

  6. Prince Fielder, DET – 102.5

  7. Mark Teixeira, NYY – 101.3

  8. Ryan Braun, MIL – 100.8

  9. Adrian Beltre, TEX – 100.2

  10. Carlos Gonzalez, COL – 99.2

This season's RBI list looks, as it often does, like a who's who of the game's premier power hitters. The leaders are dominated by American League players, with just two players representing the National League. This illustrates the offensive gap that exists between the two leagues.

Paul Konerko (107.4) might be a surprise to casual fans at the top of this list, but he shouldn't be. He has been one of the most productive players over the last decade. Jose Bautista (104.9) is the projected leader in home runs, and that equals plenty of RBIs for the Toronto outfielder. Robinson Cano (104.2) and Mark Teixeira (101.3) will help the Yankees continue to light up scoreboards this season as the number three and seven leaders on this list respectively. Miguel Cabrera (104) and Prince Fielder (102.5) should compete with the Yankee duo as the most productive pair of teammates in the majors. Albert Pujols (103.6) will need to be a dominant run producer for the Angels to keep up in the AL West.

Stolen bases

  1. Dee Gordon, LAD – 59.5

  2. Michael Bourn, ATL – 55.7

  3. Coco Crisp, OAK – 51.4

  4. Brett Gardner, NYY – 46.2

  5. Jose Reyes, MIA – 41.7

  6. Desmond Jennings, TB – 39

  7. Cameron Maybin, SD – 38.2

  8. Jordan Schafer, HOU – 37.9

  9. (tie) Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS – 37.5

  10. (tie) Ben Revere, MIN – 37.5

The forecasted stolen base leaderboard features a few known veterans but is mostly comprised of up-and-coming young players.

Michael Bourn led the league in stolen bases by a wide margin last season, swiping 61 bags. He is projected to be a star in the category once again, but this year he is projected to finish second with 55.7. The projected top man is 23-year old Dee Gordon. The Dodger shortstop stole 24 bases last season despite getting just 224 at-bats at the major-league level. As an everyday player this year Gordon could get upward of 600 at-bats, and give him ample opportunities to steal the 59.5 bases he's forecasted for.

Strikeouts

  1. Justin Verlander, DET – 236.1

  2. Cliff Lee, PHI – 228.8

  3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD – 227.3

  4. Tim Lincecum, SF – 226.6

  5. Yu Darvish, TEX – 225.7

  6. Brandon Morrow, TOR – 223

  7. Roy Halladay, PHI – 222.3

  8. Zack Greinke, KC – 220.6

  9. Felix Hernandez, SEA – 220.6

  10. Yovani Gallardo, MIL– 208.9

This season's list of top projected strikeout pitchers basically looks like a Cy Young ballot with a couple of notable exceptions. Most of these pitchers combine power stuff with the durability to throw 200-plus innings to rack up gaudy punchout totals.

Justin Verlander (236.1) is forecasted to be the leader averaging nearly one strikeout per inning pitched. Cliff Lee (228.8) follows closely behind by combining strikeout stuff with impeccable control. NL West aces Clayton Kershaw (227.3) and Tim Lincecum (226.6) will terrorize batters on the West Coast all season.

The first surprising name is Yu Darvish (225.7). It is difficult to project Japanese pitchers coming over to the major leagues, but Darvish is an aggressive power pitcher with a deep repertoire of pitches. He was an extremely dominant strikeout man in Japan, and AccuScore expects that to continue in America. Brandon Morrow (223) is probably the "worst" pitcher on this list, but that has never been for a lack of stuff. Morrow had four double-digit K games last season, and he struck out 17 batters in a single game two seasons ago.