AccuScore: They might be Giants again

Jonathan Lee, AccuScore
Yahoo! Sports

AccuScore provides baseball predictions and projections by calculating the probability teams have of winning each game, their division and making the playoffs. Using projected starting lineups, baseball predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, 10,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all baseball and sports predictions.

American League

It's the return of the contenders this week as both Boston and Los Angeles made significant jumps back up the projected playoff standings. The Red Sox and Angels were part of a small group of favorites in the AL at the start of the season, but that group has since expanded to include about half the league.

The Angels have been revitalized through the addition of phenom Mike Trout at the top of the lineup and the real version of Albert Pujols finally showing up. In the past week, they won home series against the contending Rangers and Yankees, and gained 22.6 percentage points in the AccuScore projections. They are now nearly 60 percent likely to make the postseason, which is more than four times higher than just two weeks ago. Star pitcher Jered Weaver did land on the DL last week with a back injury, but he is expected to miss only two or three starts.

The Red Sox have rebounded mostly because they were never such a bad team to begin with. Boston is finding production in unlikely places with players like Daniel Nava, Scott Podsednik and Kelly Shoppach helping patch up the holes in the lineup caused by injuries. Another boost has been Josh Beckett's recent performance along with Felix Doubront's consistency. Beckett has allowed just seven runs combined over his last four starts going at least seven innings in each of those outings. Doubront has been unexpectedly solid and is projected to continue pitching at least at league average for the rest of the season.


American League

Weekly Review

Playoff

% Chance

Team

28-May

3-Jun

% Diff

Win Div

Los Angeles Angels

36.3%

58.9%

22.6%

18.8%

Boston Red Sox

11.3%

30.7%

19.4%

7.5%

Chicago White Sox

39.8%

52.6%

12.9%

38.2%

New York Yankees

61.8%

71.6%

9.8%

31.9%

Seattle Mariners

2.6%

3.6%

1.1%

0.5%

Kansas City Royals

3.3%

3.5%

0.2%

2.2%

Minnesota Twins

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Oakland Athletics

2.6%

1.0%

-1.6%

0.1%

Toronto Blue Jays

14.6%

12.3%

-2.3%

2.4%

Texas Rangers

98.2%

94.4%

-3.8%

80.5%

Cleveland Indians

14.7%

9.6%

-5.2%

5.8%

Tampa Bay Rays

93.2%

85.0%

-8.2%

56.3%

Detroit Tigers

78.3%

65.4%

-12.9%

53.7%

Baltimore Orioles

42.4%

10.3%

-32.1%

1.8%

National League

The magic has seemed to have finally worn off for the Dodgers, which has allowed San Francisco to jump right back into the race for the NL West. Los Angeles suffered through a 1-6 week including the first four-game sweep at home at the hands of Milwaukee. Even more significant was the loss of superstar Matt Kemp for likely another month due to a hamstring injury. As a result, the Dodgers have dropped nearly 17 percentage points in the AccuScore projections. Possible Kemp replacements include Scott Van Slyke, Alex Castellanos and Tony Gwynn Jr. but none are forecast to hit better than .250 the rest of the season, creating a gaping hole in the lineup.

The Giants, meanwhile, took care of business at home going 5-1 beating up on Arizona and Chicago. They still have issues up and down the lineup, but the pitching staff remains in great shape which will keep them in ball games every night. Surprisingly, Tim Lincecum continues to struggle, and his forecast has gotten steadily worse each week. He is now projected for a 3.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, still good numbers but not what fans have come to expect from the two-time Cy Young winner. San Francisco is now one of the frontrunners for a wild-card spot, and is 40.4 percent likely to wrest away the NL West crown. And that number could go up sharply if Lincecum were to return to his previous performance levels or a trade were made to solidify the offense.


National League

Weekly Review

Playoff

% Chance

Team

28-May

3-Jun

% Diff

Win Div

San Francisco Giants

50.5%

68.3%

17.8%

40.4%

Miami Marlins

21.4%

36.7%

15.3%

14.6%

Cincinnati Reds

53.5%

67.1%

13.6%

53.6%

New York Mets

10.0%

16.8%

6.8%

5.3%

Arizona Diamondbacks

4.8%

8.1%

3.3%

2.8%

Pittsburgh Pirates

4.4%

7.2%

2.8%

4.2%

Philadelphia Phillies

59.2%

61.8%

2.6%

33.7%

Milwaukee Brewers

1.6%

3.8%

2.2%

1.9%

Colorado Rockies

0.1%

0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

San Diego Padres

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chicago Cubs

1.6%

0.6%

-1.1%

0.4%

Washington Nationals

69.3%

64.4%

-4.9%

36.0%

Houston Astros

8.4%

1.5%

-7.0%

0.9%

Atlanta Braves

43.2%

27.7%

-15.5%

10.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers

95.1%

78.3%

-16.8%

56.5%

St. Louis Cardinals

75.8%

55.3%

-20.5%

39.0%

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