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2017 Preview: Drivers Nos. 9-12 in our projected standings
Welcome to part three of our NASCAR preview series. After guessing who we think misses the playoffs, we looked at who we think will finish in the bottom four of the playoffs Tuesday. Now it’s time for drivers Nos. 9-12.
12. Kurt Busch: We’re being a bit conservative on Stewart-Haas’ chances because of the switch to Ford and we won’t be surprised in the slightest if Busch finishes solidly in the top 10.
But there was something lacking from the No. 41 car over the last half of 2016. Granted, Busch’s torrent of top-10 finishes to start the season was unsustainable. But man, the team had more than just a step back at the end of the season.
After 15 top 10s in the first 18 races, Busch had six over the final half of the season. Four of those came in the Chase, though it wasn’t enough to get him past the third round as poor runs at Martinsville and Texas scuttled any hopes of a championship.
If Busch and crew chief Tony Gibson can carry over the secrets that had them at the top of the Cup heap at the beginning of 2016, then the No. 41 is in good shape. If not, Busch is going to make the playoffs but may not do much more than that.
And, crazy enough, Busch’s 2004 championship while driving with Roush Fenway Racing is the last time Ford won a title.
“It is a special homecoming feeling to head back to work with Ford and to have them with our power and our bodies at Stewart-Haas Racing,” Busch said in a statemnt. “It really feels neat to come back to a place where I’ve seen the faces before and the way that the structure has been polished up on and the way that there’s more depth with Ford Performance.”
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Now that we know Junior is back in the Cup Series, the question shifts from “when will he be back in the car?” to “when will he be back in victory lane?”
If we knew the answer to the second question we’d have bet the house’s mortgage in Las Vegas. Of course, Daytona and Talladega are easy favorites given Earnhardt Jr.’s restrictor plate success, but don’t count out an early-season intermediate-track return to victory lane. It may be overly optimistic given Junior’s lengthy absence in 2016, but consider his performance at the beginning of last season.
After crashing out of the Daytona 500, Earnhardt Jr. finished in the top 15 over the next eight races (before crashing again at Talladega). Included in that streak were second-place finishes at Atlanta (to teammate Jimmie Johnson) and Texas and Bristol. It won’t be a shock if the No. 88 is competitive from the get-go.
“Being out of the car you hope you can jump back in the car and not miss a beat, but like I said this is the top series and any time you’re away you’re getting behind,” Junior said. “I’m really anxious and curious where we shake up early in the season, how competitive we can be, what – if any – learning curve there is for me. We’ll figure all that out.”
10. Kyle Larson: We’re going out on a sturdy limb and guessing Larson will win multiple races in 2017.
While we have Jamie McMurray missing out on the playoffs, both he and Larson could be the (relative) surprises of the season. Without Stewart-Haas in the Chevrolet camp, Chip Ganassi Racing could be in line for more support from Hendrick Motorsports. The team already had an engine deal with Hendrick and has signed an extension with the team. However, Ganassi wouldn’t go into specifics at Homestead about what type of support the contract entails; he only said that his team’s relationship with Hendrick “continues to get better every single day.”
Larson led a career-high 379 laps in 2016 and finished in the top five six times over the final 13 races of the season after a dreadful start to the year. A simple carryover in speed means Larson won’t be waiting until race No. 24 to visit victory lane.
“Wanting to win the second win is just as important as wanting to win the first win to me,” Larson said. “So yeah, it doesn’t feel any different. I’m just going to go out there and try to do the best job I can every single week and hopefully we can get some more wins this year.”
9. Martin Truex Jr.: Is the third act going to be as good as the first two for Truex?
A year after finishing career-high fourth in the standings and finishing in the top 10 22 times (also a career high), Truex had a dominant 2016 that didn’t entirely show in the box scores. Despite winning four races and leading 1,809 laps, Truex finished 11th in the standings and his average finish was 1.7 positions worse than it was in 2015.
Chalk that up to some flukes. There were busted tires at Pocono and Bristol and pit issues all around whether it was staying out when everyone else came in (Texas), or a miscue to throw away vital track position (Kansas).
And, quite honestly, we’re skeptical that the blazing speed the No. 78 car showed in 2016 is sustainable. Edges in the Cup Series don’t last very long. Truex is going to be very good again in 2017. But with the addition of teammate Erik Jones and the thought that the rest of the field will catch up, ninth seems about right.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
