10 Degrees: A trade deadline primer, with the Royals going all in (yes, really)

Not long ago, the Kansas City Royals never would’ve dreamed of making a trade like the one Sunday that netted them Johnny Cueto, the sort of legitimate frontline starter who instantaneously makes the defending American League champions much scarier than they ever were last season. The organization was so conservative it might as well have been funded by the Tea Party.

Rather than glorify itself for two consecutive years of success, Kansas City has shown the sort of adaptive skills that weren’t present early in Dayton Moore’s tenure as Royals general manager. No longer are the Royals making decisions looking solely inward. Their place in the baseball world – atop the AL Central by 7½ games, better than the rest of the league by four – brought not a greater sense of security but one of urgency. The Royals could win a pennant with the team they had before Sunday. They should win it with the one they have after it.

Here, as four days separate the baseball world from its non-waiver trade deadline, was the Royals’ calculus: Not only could they position themselves well in a league full of mediocrity, the realities of their near future pulsed in neon lights. Left fielder Alex Gordon is a free agent after this season, and barring a hometown discount, he’s off to the land of hundred millionaires. Closer Greg Holland is a free agent after next season, and his arbitration raise into eight figures is more than a team even with the expanded purse strings of Kansas City wants to pay. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, shortstop Alcides Escobar and starter Danny Duffy all are due to hit free agency after the 2017 season.

Even if Kansas City manages to lock up two of them, the planets aligning as they have this season in either of the next two is no given, particularly with the approach of free agency bumping their salaries via arbitration and hamstringing Kansas City’s ability to bring in big-time free agents. All of which is to say: Getting …

1. Johnny Cueto, even though the cost was significant – one GM said “they overpaid” and another concurred that “they gave up a lot” – it was very well worth it. For one, Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and John Lamb all are hard-throwing pitching prospects – and every hard-throwing pitching prospect, no matter his pedigree, ought go to the tattoo parlor and get FRAGILE inked on his throwing arm.

If Cincinnati can get even one rotation piece out of the three, it should consider the sacrifice of a dozen Cueto starts and the draft pick that would’ve come from his free agency a success. That Cincinnati got three lottery tickets – Finnegan a major leaguer, whether a starter or reliever; Reed the highest ceilinged of the bunch; and Lamb a 25-year-old Tommy John washout whose stuff finally worked this season, four years after the surgery – is what a rebuilding team like the Reds needs.

Cueto, on the other hand, is exactly what the rotation-light Royals craved as they cruise toward the playoffs. He is an innings eater who can give a taxed bullpen a break every five days, and he happens to strike out a lot of hitters and issue walks infrequently. Considering the Royals’ rotation consists of Edinson Volquez, Duffy and whatever they can cobble together from Chris Young, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie and Kris Medlen, the desire for an anchor drove them to finish a deal even if costly. It’s why when the internal debates about …

2. Ben Zobrist rage on among Royals leaders, the consensus leans toward: Go get him. And it should. Zobrist is the perfect fit for Kansas City in a number of ways, and if it takes a Sean Manaea or Miguel Almonte to get him, the Royals are pot committed enough that they ought push themselves all-in and try to ready themselves as best they can to do this year what they couldn’t last.

Zobrist is like mom jeans: It ain’t pretty, but the fit is good enough that you ignore whatever lack of aesthetics may exist. He’s hitting .268/.354/.447, which in this offensive environment and Oakland’s park is rather good. Better yet, he plays outfield (and can sub in left until Alex Gordon returns) and infield (where he can slide over to second base once Gordon’s injured hamstring heals). The Royals have no backup shortstop for Escobar; Zobrist is the perfect kind of insurance, and slotting his on-base percentage near, or even at, the top of the lineup makes Kansas City even more formidable.

Getting Zobrist won’t be easy. The Nationals want him. So do the Mets. The Cubs, who probably won’t make a huge splash, could see Zobrist as a nice low-dive cannonball. While the trade of Tyler Clippard, which the San Francisco Chronicle said could be imminent, should bring a solid piece, the market for Zobrist is strong enough that Oakland should be able to get a Manaea or Almonte, or perhaps even Erick Fedde from Washington. The Cueto deal emboldened teams looking to sell, and it gives even more incentive for …

3. David Price to hit the market over the next 24 hours. The Tigers’ reality is this: They’re two games under .500 and four back of the wild card with three teams ahead of them. Right behind them are Texas (half a game back), Chicago (one game back) and Seattle and Cleveland (2½ games back). Couple that with their current stretch in which they’re on the road 17 of 23 games, plus Miguel Cabrera expected to miss another three weeks, not to mention a farm system in desperate need of an infusion, and the Tigers become fairly obvious sellers.

Winning four straight AL Central titles, of course, makes swallowing that reality like trying to chug a glass of jawbreakers. The cognitive dissonance is real, history haunting the thoughts of the present, even though dumping free-agents-to-be Price and Yoenis Cespedes would allow them to add workable pieces to their reload next season.

Surely Price would fetch more than Cueto, and Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski isn’t the sort who sits around and waits for the best deals to come to him. He’s creative and aggressive and tactical, and the moment he commits to trading Price – and because of his history for proper decision making, multiple GMs expect that to happen – the list of suitors will allow him to prune the market down and hone in on the right return. In other words, do everything that hasn’t happened since …

4. Cole Hamels was made quasi-available by the Philadelphia Phillies. At this point, the Phillies might as well be the DMV, because they’re made people wait such an interminably long time they’re tired of the inefficiency.

One GM this week suggested the worst thing the Phillies could do is string out the Hamels negotiations to the July 31 deadline and use it to try and extract more value because it runs the risk of them overplaying their hand – again – and keeping Hamels. And considering all of the variables in play – the Phillies are going to be a hot mess next year, they need help in their farm system, the three years left on Hamels’ contract appeal to contenders and non-contenders – doing that would be a short-sighted, ill-advised move.

The Los Angeles Dodgers desperately need a starting pitcher, and they don’t want to take James Shields’ back-loaded contract on when they could’ve signed him this offseason and not had to surrender prospects. The Texas Rangers dream of a rotation with Yu Darvish and Hamels surrounded by Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre and Joey Gallo. Neither is so committed, though, as to bite on the spinnerbait at which Ruben Amaro continues to tug.

He’s making these calls, even if those whom he’s calling believe he doesn’t have the authority to make the trades, and there isn’t a sense of imminence at the moment. So teams are turning to …

5. Yovani Gallardo and others of his ilk instead. Gallardo actually makes all the sense in the world to the Dodgers as a strong get in case Price and Hamels fall through and they can’t satisfy San Diego’s need for Tyson Ross or Andrew Cashner or prefer not to go in the bargain bin and get Bud Norris for a middling prospect with the catch they take on his full salary.

At the same time, Gallardo’s strikeout rate is down to frighteningly low levels. Considering just two years ago he averaged a strikeout an inning, Gallardo’s 6.16 per nine this season ranks 79th of 90 qualified starters, and his 3.41 walks per nine rank 85th. It’s not the best combination, and while he induces groundballs and has kept his home run rate low this season, it’s those sorts of peripherals that could scare off the Dodgers (not to mention Toronto, another organization desperate for a starting pitcher).

Turning to Shields or Ross or Cashner is an option, too, because the possibility they join …

6. Justin Upton going out the door in San Diego gets stronger by the day, according to numerous executives who leave conversations with the Padres with the same sense: They’re putting up a sign on the street corner advertising a yard sale.

Just as GM A.J. Preller this offseason found no upgrade too absurd to consider, he’s spending July trying to undo what he built as the Padres tread water in the National League West. Give Preller this much: He’s got pieces to deal, and Upton’s name perks the ears of many.

The scary part: He’s in a two-month-long slump, a bout of ugliness so obscene the numbers could get us fined for printing them. From June 1 to July 25, Upton hit .171/.272/.253 with three home runs. He homered Sunday, and perhaps it’s the start of an Upton hot streak, which is the diametric opposite of his cold spells. When Upton is locked in, few in baseball are better, and buying on the upswing would be a boon for whichever team does it.

Holding onto Upton at this point is senseless for the Padres, unless they’re deluding themselves into believing they’re in the playoff hunt. Considering …

7. Jay Bruce might be the next-best bat available, Upton should fetch more than his recent numbers would suggest he’s worth. Outfield help is rare, which is why one source familiar with the Reds’ plans called it “60/40” that Bruce is traded.

Since a two-homer game June 7, Bruce is hitting .296/.347/.572, a reminder that after a miserable 2014 and poor start this year, the 28-year-old Bruce remains a dangerous hitter. Better yet, Bruce is under contract for just $12.5 million next year with a reasonable $13 million option in 2017. It’s why the budget-conscious Angels and Mets are favorites for Bruce should Cincinnati send him away.

Whether they should isn’t exactly clear. Dealing Cueto was a no-brainer. Same goes for Mike Leake, who will hit free agency this offseason. Extracting full value from Bruce could compel the Reds to move, but their reticence is obvious, much as it is when …

8. Aroldis Chapman’s name surfaces in discussions. He’s not Voldemort, exactly, but the ask for what amounts to a one-year, two-month rental is so exorbitant teams that have inquired aren’t much bothered to do it again.

Keeping Chapman, of course, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, unless the Reds see themselves as a team in the midst of a transition, not an overhaul. The possibility of them winning in 2016 is highly dubious, especially as St. Louis does its St. Louis thing and Pittsburgh and the Chicago Cubs gear up with their cadre of young players worth wanting. Both of the wild cards could come out of the NL Central this season, and that forces Cincinnati into a position where it needs to look at itself the same way Kansas City has: through a realistic prism of its position.

The upshot is an old axiom worth repeating: Bad teams don’t need elite closers. It’s not that it’s a waste of an arm exactly. It’s just that with the value of a great closer – and Chapman is the best, bar none – to contending teams as high as ever thanks to the copycatting of Kansas City, holding onto him sends the wrong message. Counterintuitive though it may be, selling Chapman would actually show Reds fans the team is committed to winning. It’s like the …

9. Jonathan Papelbon case, where Philadelphia so desperately needs to take advantage of his aptitude and rid itself of his attitude. If Papelbon is obnoxious with this team, imagine what he’s going to be like next year if the Phillies subject him to another 100-loss season. The result looks something like a Jackson Pollock painting.

While the market for Papelbon has died publicly, sources said the Phillies continue to discuss him. One executive posited that Washington fits best for Papelbon. While Drew Storen has closed and closed effectively, a Storen-Papelbon back-end combination immediately becomes one of the game’s finest, adding to the Aaron Barrett-Felipe Rivero-Matt Thornton-Casey Janssen crew that has acquitted itself quite well in July.

A small move like eating money to take on Papelbon and getting a bat like Zobrist may well be enough for a team like the Nationals, whose lead over the Mets stands at two games and could use some reinforcements. With the deadline bearing down, teams are starting to be more realistic with themselves, and it’s why …

10. Johnny Cueto is a Royal. Look at that sentence and think about it for a minute. The Kansas City Royals – the team that for 29 years didn’t so much as make a postseason – are now giving up three prospects for 11 or 12 starts from one guy who twice this season complained of elbow problems.

Granted, Kansas City is concerning itself more with the start in Game 1 of the American League division series that today would be at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals’ window is open, and they’re ready to burglarize the rest of the league. It started with Cueto and his sparkling 2.51 ERA over the last half-decade, and it will continue as the week pushes on toward Friday afternoon’s deadline.

The trades have started, and as the results of the next few days convince teams just how much they want to buy and sell – even if they do realize it’s a silly idea to base the next two months on the way a ballclub behaves over, what, 48 hours? – the market will flesh itself out. The first wave of trades is done, and the Royals’ statement couldn’t have been clearer. They want to be kings again, and like every smart team in the midst of its time, they knew exactly when and how to strengthen their chances of coronation.